Carson Smith
28-Year-Old PitcherRP
60-Day DL
Injury Shoulder
Est. Return 3/1/2019
2018 Fantasy Outlook
Smith took longer than expected to return to the Boston bullpen following 2016 Tommy John surgery, but he worked through setbacks and made his season debut in September. During the final month of the season, Smith made eight appearances and logged a total of 6.2 innings, finishing with one earned run allowed and a 7:2 K:BB. Most importantly, his velocity wasn't far from his pre-surgery levels, as he averaged 92.0 mph on his fastball, 84.6 on his slider, and 88.0 on his changeup, and he was generating outs on the ground at a clip above 60 percent again. At his best in 2015 with the Mariners, Smith was a 90-strikeout reliever with good ratios, and if he's able to use his slider as often as he did before going under the knife, it's reasonable to think that he'll be part of the improved late-inning combination the Red Sox use to get the ball to Craig Kimbrel in the ninth inning this season. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#494
ADP
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$Signed a one-year, $850,000 contract with the Red Sox in January of 2018, avoiding arbitration.
Transferred to 60-day DL
PBoston Red Sox
Shoulder
July 2, 2018
Smith (shoulder) was moved to the 60-day disabled list Monday, Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston reports.
ANALYSIS
The move opens up a spot on the 40-man roster for the addition of William Cuevas. It has no effect on Smith's timeline, as he's already been ruled out for the season after undergoing shoulder surgery.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-67%
BAA vs LHP
2018
 
 
-68%
BAA vs LHP
2017
 
 
-47%
BAA vs LHP
2016
 
 
-100%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2016vs Left .103 33 11 4 3 0 1 0
Since 2016vs Right .313 69 16 5 20 1 1 2
2018vs Left .100 23 9 3 2 0 1 0
2018vs Right .316 41 9 3 12 1 1 2
2017vs Left .167 6 2 0 1 0 0 0
2017vs Right .316 21 5 2 6 0 0 0
2016vs Left .000 4 0 1 0 0 0 0
2016vs Right .286 7 2 0 2 0 0 0
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-18%
ERA on Road
2018
 
 
-28%
ERA on Road
2017
 
 
-100%
ERA on Road
2016
No Stats
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2016Home 2.92 1.78 12.1 1 0 0 8.0 5.1 1.5
Since 2016Away 2.38 0.88 11.1 0 1 1 12.7 1.6 0.0
2018Home 4.50 1.67 6.0 1 0 0 9.0 6.0 3.0
2018Away 3.24 1.20 8.1 0 1 0 13.0 2.2 0.0
2017Home 1.93 1.93 4.2 0 0 0 7.7 3.9 0.0
2017Away 0.00 0.00 2.0 0 0 1 13.5 0.0 0.0
2016Home 0.00 1.80 1.2 0 0 0 5.4 5.4 0.0
2016Away 0.00 0.00 1.0 0 0 0 9.0 0.0 0.0
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Stat Review
How does Carson Smith compare to other relievers?
This section compares his stats with all relief pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 30 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
K/BB
3.00
 
K/9
11.3
 
BB/9
3.8
 
HR/9
1.3
 
Fastball
92.1 mph
 
ERA
3.77
 
WHIP
1.40
 
BABIP
.349
 
GB/FB
2.00
 
Strand %
77.8%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2017
2016
2015
Smith was acquired from the Mariners in the offseason prior to the 2016 campaign and was seen as part of the mix to pitch setup innings for closer Craig Kimbrel, but a spring forearm injury lingered into the season and eventually required Tommy John surgery. Boston gave up a starter in Wade Miley to acquire Smith but viewed the reliever as a key bullpen piece. On the strength of a wipeout slider, Smith was coming off a stellar 2015 in which he struck out 34.2 percent of batters faced (ranked 11th among relievers) and registered an 11.8 K/9 (12th). The right hander with the unorthodox delivery commanded the strike zone well, too, and didn't give up many home runs (two in 70 innings). There are reports that he could throw during the spring, but the smart money has Smith coming back around June.
Smith fulfilled much of his potential as a dominant late-inning reliever last season, but when given the chance to take over the closer role, he didn't capitalize. The right-hander blew five save chances in 18 opportunities, allowing nine earned runs in 18.1 innings (4.41 ERA), and eventually relinquished the job. Smith certainly has the talent to close. He neutralizes righties (.169 BAA) with a devastating sidearm slider and left-handers (.227) with good changeup in addition to a sinking fastball that helped generate a 4.00 GB/FB ratio. His fastball command contributed to a mere two homers allowed, and despite a modest 92.9 mph average fastball, the 6-foot-6 Smith is an excellent strikeout pitcher. He whiffed 32.4% of the batters he faced, sixth among AL relievers. He was the key piece in a December trade that sent him to Boston, where he will eventually set up for Craig Kimbrel in a vastly improved Red Sox bullpen. However, he will begin the season on the disabled list with a strained flexor mass muscle in his right forearm, and should be considered out indefinitely.
Smith has shot through the system since being drafted in the eighth round in 2011, making the jump to Triple-A Tacoma to begin 2014 before a September callup. The right-hander impressed in his short time with the club, throwing 8.1 shutout innings across nine appearances. His best pitch is perhaps his sidearm slider that's more effective against right-handers, while his changeup is the choice against lefties. A sinking fastball helped him get 13 groundouts to one flyout with the Mariners. The 6-foot-6 Smith will compete for a relief job in spring training, though the bullpen is well stocked. Even if he doesn't make the team out of spring, he'll likely be in Seattle at some point. He also could be used as trade bait or insurance if the Mariners move one of their other bullpen pieces.
More Fantasy News
Undergoes successful surgery Wednesday
PBoston Red Sox
Shoulder
June 13, 2018
Smith underwent successful shoulder surgery Wednesday, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald reports.
ANALYSIS
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Set for season-ending surgery
PBoston Red Sox
Shoulder
June 12, 2018
Smith will undergo season-ending shoulder surgery Wednesday, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports.
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Seeking third opinion on shoulder
PBoston Red Sox
Shoulder
May 22, 2018
Smith (shoulder) received a second opinion Monday and is now seeking a third opinion on his injured shoulder, Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe reports.
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Placed on DL with shoulder injury
PBoston Red Sox
Shoulder
May 15, 2018
Smith was placed on the 10-day disabled list Tuesday with a right shoulder subluxation, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports.
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Getting better, per manager
PBoston Red Sox
April 28, 2018
Manager Alex Cora feels Smith's stuff has gotten better since the start of the season, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald reports.
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