Josh Naylor
Josh Naylor
24-Year-Old OutfielderOF
Cleveland Indians
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Naylor broke summer camp with the Padres, but he played sparingly and almost exclusively against right-handers. He was sent to the alternate site for 10 days in August before returning. Naylor was slashing .278/.316/.417 when he was dealt to Cleveland on Aug. 31. He played more with Cleveland, but still only against righties, slashing just .230/.277/.279. While it's encouraging Naylor's season-long contact rate was 86.4%, it was mostly weak and on the ground, not conducive for a 70 raw power grade. Naylor's average exit velocity on flyballs was well below average, again not good for homers. Naylor is another case in which it's better to trust the reports and results prior to 2020 over a two-month sample in trying conditions. Cleveland's outfield is in flux, though Naylor should be given a shot at the busier side of a platoon. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#479
ADP
$Traded to the Indians in August of 2020.
Knocks sixth homer
OFCleveland Indians
June 21, 2021
Naylor went 2-for-4 with a two-run homer in Monday's 4-0 win over the Cubs.
ANALYSIS
Naylor's home run in the fifth inning was his sixth of the season and first of June. Entering Monday's game, the 24-year-old had just four extra-base hits and a .587 OPS in 15 games this month. He's slashing .255/.302/.395 through 235 plate appearances this season.
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Batting Stats
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2021
2020
2019
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2020 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
8
28
5
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
5
16
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2019
 
 
+12%
OPS vs RHP
2021
 
 
+42%
OPS vs RHP
2020
 
 
+150%
OPS vs LHP
2019
 
 
+8%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2019vs Left .634 142 15 2 12 1 .248 .296 .338
Since 2019vs Right .708 475 54 13 46 2 .249 .307 .400
2021vs Left .544 84 9 1 5 0 .205 .262 .282
2021vs Right .775 155 18 5 15 1 .281 .323 .452
2020vs Left 1.357 8 2 1 3 0 .429 .500 .857
2020vs Right .543 91 11 0 3 1 .221 .264 .279
2019vs Left .674 50 4 0 4 1 .292 .320 .354
2019vs Right .729 229 25 8 28 0 .239 .314 .415
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2019
 
 
+23%
OPS on Road
2021
 
 
+17%
OPS on Road
2020
 
 
+60%
OPS on Road
2019
 
 
+18%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2019Home .616 274 26 5 23 2 .228 .281 .335
Since 2019Away .756 338 43 10 35 1 .267 .325 .431
2021Home .634 106 12 1 5 0 .240 .311 .323
2021Away .739 133 15 5 15 1 .266 .293 .445
2020Home .472 45 2 0 1 1 .205 .222 .250
2020Away .756 49 11 1 5 0 .273 .347 .409
2019Home .654 123 12 4 17 1 .228 .276 .377
2019Away .771 156 17 4 15 0 .266 .346 .424
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Stat Review
How does Josh Naylor compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
BB/K
0.30
 
BB Rate
5.4%
 
K Rate
18.4%
 
BABIP
.293
 
ISO
.138
 
AVG
.254
 
OBP
.301
 
SLG
.393
 
OPS
.694
 
wOBA
.305
 
Exit Velocity
83.4 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
28.9%
 
Barrels/PA
6.8%
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Josh Naylor
Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers
15 days ago
Jesse Siegel is back with a few updates, including a Braves phenom with plenty of potential.
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45 days ago
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Bernie on the Scene: AL Central Analysis & Predictions
79 days ago
Bernie Pleskoff analyzes each team in the AL Central with grades for each player and predictions for the division. Can the Twins overtake the White Sox?
The Z Files: Candidates To Lose Homers With the New Baseball
96 days ago
Todd Zola tries to determine whose power numbers might be impacted the most by MLB's new baseball, and finds reason to be concerned about Cavan Biggio.
Spring Training Job Battles: Mid-March Update
102 days ago
Erik Halterman checks in on spring job battles and notes that the only thing standing between Andrew Vaughn and a spot in the Opening Day lineup is potential service-time manipulation.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
Naylor made his debut May 24 and was up and down a few times before settling in for good after the deadline. Some scouts have put a 70 on Naylor's raw power, but he's still working to get to that in games. His ISO with the major-league team was .154, so about league average. He walked at a useful clip but his strikeout rate nearly doubled with the jump from Triple-A to the majors, and in total, Naylor graded out as 11% worse than league average by wRC+. As expected, the lumbering Naylor was a negative on defense, and he was below replacement level by fWAR in his 279 plate appearances. The body is a problem -- he was listed at 5-foot-11, 250 pounds at age 21 -- and that figures to only get worse with age. San Diego would like to trade Wil Myers, but that seems unlikely. There will only be room for two starters between Trent Grisham, Myers and Naylor, with Tommy Pham in the same outfield.
The biggest development for Naylor in 2018 was that most of his starts came in left field. He had previously only played first base. His stats through 170 career games at Double-A (.286/.368/.423, 19 HR, 14.0 K%, 10.7 BB%) are solid for a player who won't turn 22 until June. However, the fact he won't be a good defender anywhere, particularly in the outfield, means he will have to do a ton of damage at the plate to get playing time in the National League. The 70-grade raw power that led to him getting selected in the first round in 2015 has not consistently shown up in games, but he has been a better pure hitter than originally anticipated. Eric Hosmer signed an eight-year deal last offseason and the Padres already have a couple bat-first, below-average defenders competing for time in the outfield corners (Franmil Reyes and Hunter Renfroe), so Naylor feels like a spare piece who may not make his big-league debut as a member of this organization.
For each of Naylor's intriguing fantasy-relevant qualities, he does something else that subtracts from his potential value. He has huge raw power, but doesn't make much of an effort to get to it consistently in games. One of pro sports' modern marvels is how well Naylor runs, given his pear-shaped physique. But he won't remain this nimble as he gets into his mid-20s. Prior to 2017, he hardly walked -- a red flag for a bad-body first baseman. However, his career-best 9.1 percent walk rate at Double-A helped lessen those concerns. At the same time, he pulled the ball a career-low 31.4 percent, which was the second lowest rate in the Texas League. For a player who is already not capitalizing on his top physical tool, this new passivity is quite troubling. Naylor could be a high-average 15-to-20 homer hitter, or a low-average 30-plus homer threat, but it's hard to see both skills converging. He has been promoted aggressively since being drafted 12th overall in 2015, and could be pushed to Triple-A before he turns 21 in late June.
Naylor was one of the more desired pieces in the infamous Andrew Cashner-Jarred Cosart deal, which nearly fell through due to alleged misinformation provided by the Padres. The Padres were able to keep Naylor, though, and he more than held his own during his first season of full-season ball. In 122 games between Low-A Greensboro and High-A Lake Elsinore, the left-handed hitting Naylor batted .264/.302/.407 with 12 home runs, 75 RBI and 11 steals. Naylor needs to work on his patience at the dish, as he only drew 25 walks in 481 at-bats. However, he also does not strike a ton, as evidenced by his 84 strikeouts over the above-referenced 122-game span in 2016. The Padres are banking on Naylor's home run totals eventually catching up to his massive raw power. He may only be starting to scratch the surface of his enormous power potential.
After being selected with the 12th pick in the 2015 draft, Naylor injected a modicum of hope into perhaps the worst farm system in baseball. The Canadian slugger slashed .327/.352/.418 with one home run in 25 games in his first taste of professional baseball. Perhaps the most impressive aspect of this small sample is the 10.5-percent K rate that he posted after just turning 18 years old in June. He was drafted because of the plus power he offers from the left side, and to show those contact skills at such an early age has to really excite fantasy owners. While a case could easily be made that Naylor is the best fantasy asset in the Marlins’ system, it is also worth noting that he is at least four or five years away from the show, so drafting him in dynasty leagues will require extreme patience.
More Fantasy News
Not starting Saturday
OFCleveland Indians
June 19, 2021
Naylor is not in the lineup for Saturday's game against the Pirates.
ANALYSIS
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Not in Wednesday's lineup
OFCleveland Indians
June 16, 2021
Naylor isn't in the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Orioles, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Doubles, scores in win
OFCleveland Indians
June 9, 2021
Naylor went 2-for-5 with a double and a run scored in Tuesday's 10-1 win over the Cardinals.
ANALYSIS
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Not starting Saturday
OFCleveland Indians
June 5, 2021
Naylor isn't starting Saturday's game against the Orioles.
ANALYSIS
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Records three hits while homering
OFCleveland Indians
May 30, 2021
Naylor went 3-for-3 with a solo home run in Sunday's loss to the Blue Jays.
ANALYSIS
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