Josh Naylor
21-Year-Old OutfielderOF
San Diego Padres AA
2019 Fantasy Outlook
The biggest development for Naylor in 2018 was that most of his starts came in left field. He had previously only played first base. His stats through 170 career games at Double-A (.286/.368/.423, 19 HR, 14.0 K%, 10.7 BB%) are solid for a player who won't turn 22 until June. However, the fact he won't be a good defender anywhere, particularly in the outfield, means he will have to do a ton of damage at the plate to get playing time in the National League. The 70-grade raw power that led to him getting selected in the first round in 2015 has not consistently shown up in games, but he has been a better pure hitter than originally anticipated. Eric Hosmer signed an eight-year deal last offseason and the Padres already have a couple bat-first, below-average defenders competing for time in the outfield corners (Franmil Reyes and Hunter Renfroe), so Naylor feels like a spare piece who may not make his big-league debut as a member of this organization. Read Past Outlooks
$Signed with the Marlins in June of 2015.
Getting reps in left field
OFSan Diego Padres  AA
May 8, 2018
Naylor has been splitting time between first base and left field this season for Double-A San Antonio.
ANALYSIS
He has logged 18 games at first base, 11 games in left field and two games as the Missions' designated hitter. The logic behind diversifying Naylor's defensive capabilities is obvious, as the only two position players that the team has committed significant long-term money to are first basemen by trade (Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers), so if Naylor wants to break through with this organization, it may have to come in the outfield. There is also the slight chance that the National League will add the designated hitter in the coming years, which would help his cause, but fantasy owners can't count on that happening. His four errors and .765 fielding percentage in 17 chances as a left fielder illustrate how much work he will need to put in to be acceptable in the outfield. The bigger story this season has been what Naylor is doing at the plate. He is hitting .363/.448/.621 with eight home runs and a 15:18 K:BB in 145 plate appearances -- success that even his most staunch backers couldn't have seen coming before the start of the season.
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Josh Naylor
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172 days ago
James Anderson unveils his second annual farm system rankings and is a little surprised at how high Vlad Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays have risen.
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273 days ago
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279 days ago
James Anderson looks at some hitting prospects who might be overvalued or underappreciated in dynasty leagues based on their starts to the season, including the Yankees' Miguel Andujar.
Farm Futures: AFL Notes
Farm Futures: AFL Notes
November 9, 2017
November 9, 2017
James Anderson offers his thoughts on Luis Urias' dynasty-league value, and whether Kyle Tucker's AFL assignment was a showcase for a trade.
General MiLB: AFL Prospect Spotlight
October 24, 2017
Chris Welsh scouts the early action in this year's AFL season and sees no reason to slow down the hype train for the Braves' Ronald Acuna.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
For each of Naylor's intriguing fantasy-relevant qualities, he does something else that subtracts from his potential value. He has huge raw power, but doesn't make much of an effort to get to it consistently in games. One of pro sports' modern marvels is how well Naylor runs, given his pear-shaped physique. But he won't remain this nimble as he gets into his mid-20s. Prior to 2017, he hardly walked -- a red flag for a bad-body first baseman. However, his career-best 9.1 percent walk rate at Double-A helped lessen those concerns. At the same time, he pulled the ball a career-low 31.4 percent, which was the second lowest rate in the Texas League. For a player who is already not capitalizing on his top physical tool, this new passivity is quite troubling. Naylor could be a high-average 15-to-20 homer hitter, or a low-average 30-plus homer threat, but it's hard to see both skills converging. He has been promoted aggressively since being drafted 12th overall in 2015, and could be pushed to Triple-A before he turns 21 in late June.
Naylor was one of the more desired pieces in the infamous Andrew Cashner-Jarred Cosart deal, which nearly fell through due to alleged misinformation provided by the Padres. The Padres were able to keep Naylor, though, and he more than held his own during his first season of full-season ball. In 122 games between Low-A Greensboro and High-A Lake Elsinore, the left-handed hitting Naylor batted .264/.302/.407 with 12 home runs, 75 RBI and 11 steals. Naylor needs to work on his patience at the dish, as he only drew 25 walks in 481 at-bats. However, he also does not strike a ton, as evidenced by his 84 strikeouts over the above-referenced 122-game span in 2016. The Padres are banking on Naylor's home run totals eventually catching up to his massive raw power. He may only be starting to scratch the surface of his enormous power potential.
After being selected with the 12th pick in the 2015 draft, Naylor injected a modicum of hope into perhaps the worst farm system in baseball. The Canadian slugger slashed .327/.352/.418 with one home run in 25 games in his first taste of professional baseball. Perhaps the most impressive aspect of this small sample is the 10.5-percent K rate that he posted after just turning 18 years old in June. He was drafted because of the plus power he offers from the left side, and to show those contact skills at such an early age has to really excite fantasy owners. While a case could easily be made that Naylor is the best fantasy asset in the Marlins’ system, it is also worth noting that he is at least four or five years away from the show, so drafting him in dynasty leagues will require extreme patience.
More Fantasy News
Pummeling Texas League pitching
OFSan Diego Padres  AA
April 13, 2018
Naylor went 3-for-4 with two home runs Thursday for Double-A San Antonio.
ANALYSIS
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Called up to Double-A
OFSan Diego Padres  AA
July 11, 2017
Naylor was promoted to Double-A San Antonio on Tuesday, MiLB.com's Sam Dykstra reports.
ANALYSIS
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Returns to action Friday
OFSan Diego Padres  AA
May 12, 2017
Naylor (face) was activated from the minor-league disabled list Friday, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
ANALYSIS
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Placed on 7-day DL
OFSan Diego Padres  AA
Face
April 30, 2017
Naylor was placed on the 7-day disabled list after being hit in the face on a pick-off throw Saturday.
ANALYSIS
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Exits High-A game early after getting hit in face
OFSan Diego Padres  AA
Face
April 29, 2017
Naylor was removed from Saturday's game with High-A Lake Elsinore after being hit in the face by a thrown ball, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
ANALYSIS
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