Josh Naylor

Josh Naylor

24-Year-Old OutfielderOF
Cleveland Guardians
Covid-19
Injury Illness
Est. Return 5/21/2022
2022 Fantasy Outlook
Naylor's 2021 season was cut short after a broken ankle in late June required season-ending surgery. Naylor is reportedly making good progress in his recovery from July 3 surgery to address fractures and ligament damage in his right leg, but he's not expected to be cleared for Opening Day. Once he completes his rehab program and is able to play a few games in the minor leagues, Naylor should eventually settle into a strong-side platoon role for the Guardians at either corner-outfield spot, first base or designated hitter. Before sustaining the season-ending leg injury, Naylor supplied a .700 OPS in 249 plate appearances for Cleveland in 2021. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#579
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $1.2 million contract with the Guardians in March of 2022.
Lands on COVID-19 IL
OFCleveland Guardians
Undisclosed
May 13, 2022
Naylor (undisclosed) was placed on the COVID-19 injured list Friday, Mandy Bell of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Naylor has three homers and nine RBI over his past two games but will now be unavailable while going through MLB's testing protocols. It's unclear whether or not he tested positive for the virus, leaving him without a set timeline for his return. Yu Chang (illness) was activated from the COVID-19 IL in a corresponding move.
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Batting Stats
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2022
2021
2020
2019
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
3
10
1
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
2
2
1
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2020
 
 
+22%
OPS vs RHP
2022
 
 
+17%
OPS vs RHP
2021
 
 
+57%
OPS vs RHP
2020
 
 
+150%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2020vs Left .631 117 13 3 11 0 .229 .282 .349
Since 2020vs Right .768 308 38 10 38 2 .280 .321 .446
2022vs Left .876 20 2 1 3 0 .316 .350 .526
2022vs Right 1.027 57 8 4 19 0 .358 .386 .642
2021vs Left .512 89 9 1 5 0 .193 .247 .265
2021vs Right .805 160 19 6 16 1 .287 .331 .473
2020vs Left 1.357 8 2 1 3 0 .429 .500 .857
2020vs Right .543 91 11 0 3 1 .221 .264 .279
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2020
 
 
+29%
OPS on Road
2022
 
 
+26%
OPS on Road
2021
 
 
+18%
OPS on Road
2020
 
 
+60%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2020Home .631 183 17 1 14 1 .254 .306 .325
Since 2020Away .812 237 34 12 35 1 .277 .316 .496
2022Home .855 32 3 0 8 0 .379 .406 .448
2022Away 1.076 45 7 5 14 0 .326 .356 .721
2021Home .634 106 12 1 5 0 .240 .311 .323
2021Away .746 143 16 6 16 1 .263 .294 .453
2020Home .472 45 2 0 1 1 .205 .222 .250
2020Away .756 49 11 1 5 0 .273 .347 .409
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Josh Naylor compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a batter in feet per second.
BB/K
0.30
 
BB Rate
3.9%
 
K Rate
13.0%
 
BABIP
.345
 
ISO
.264
 
AVG
.347
 
OBP
.377
 
SLG
.611
 
OPS
.988
 
wOBA
.424
 
Exit Velocity
85.2 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
28.6%
 
Barrels/PA
10.6%
 
Sprint Speed
21.3
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
Naylor broke summer camp with the Padres, but he played sparingly and almost exclusively against right-handers. He was sent to the alternate site for 10 days in August before returning. Naylor was slashing .278/.316/.417 when he was dealt to Cleveland on Aug. 31. He played more with Cleveland, but still only against righties, slashing just .230/.277/.279. While it's encouraging Naylor's season-long contact rate was 86.4%, it was mostly weak and on the ground, not conducive for a 70 raw power grade. Naylor's average exit velocity on flyballs was well below average, again not good for homers. Naylor is another case in which it's better to trust the reports and results prior to 2020 over a two-month sample in trying conditions. Cleveland's outfield is in flux, though Naylor should be given a shot at the busier side of a platoon.
Naylor made his debut May 24 and was up and down a few times before settling in for good after the deadline. Some scouts have put a 70 on Naylor's raw power, but he's still working to get to that in games. His ISO with the major-league team was .154, so about league average. He walked at a useful clip but his strikeout rate nearly doubled with the jump from Triple-A to the majors, and in total, Naylor graded out as 11% worse than league average by wRC+. As expected, the lumbering Naylor was a negative on defense, and he was below replacement level by fWAR in his 279 plate appearances. The body is a problem -- he was listed at 5-foot-11, 250 pounds at age 21 -- and that figures to only get worse with age. San Diego would like to trade Wil Myers, but that seems unlikely. There will only be room for two starters between Trent Grisham, Myers and Naylor, with Tommy Pham in the same outfield.
The biggest development for Naylor in 2018 was that most of his starts came in left field. He had previously only played first base. His stats through 170 career games at Double-A (.286/.368/.423, 19 HR, 14.0 K%, 10.7 BB%) are solid for a player who won't turn 22 until June. However, the fact he won't be a good defender anywhere, particularly in the outfield, means he will have to do a ton of damage at the plate to get playing time in the National League. The 70-grade raw power that led to him getting selected in the first round in 2015 has not consistently shown up in games, but he has been a better pure hitter than originally anticipated. Eric Hosmer signed an eight-year deal last offseason and the Padres already have a couple bat-first, below-average defenders competing for time in the outfield corners (Franmil Reyes and Hunter Renfroe), so Naylor feels like a spare piece who may not make his big-league debut as a member of this organization.
For each of Naylor's intriguing fantasy-relevant qualities, he does something else that subtracts from his potential value. He has huge raw power, but doesn't make much of an effort to get to it consistently in games. One of pro sports' modern marvels is how well Naylor runs, given his pear-shaped physique. But he won't remain this nimble as he gets into his mid-20s. Prior to 2017, he hardly walked -- a red flag for a bad-body first baseman. However, his career-best 9.1 percent walk rate at Double-A helped lessen those concerns. At the same time, he pulled the ball a career-low 31.4 percent, which was the second lowest rate in the Texas League. For a player who is already not capitalizing on his top physical tool, this new passivity is quite troubling. Naylor could be a high-average 15-to-20 homer hitter, or a low-average 30-plus homer threat, but it's hard to see both skills converging. He has been promoted aggressively since being drafted 12th overall in 2015, and could be pushed to Triple-A before he turns 21 in late June.
Naylor was one of the more desired pieces in the infamous Andrew Cashner-Jarred Cosart deal, which nearly fell through due to alleged misinformation provided by the Padres. The Padres were able to keep Naylor, though, and he more than held his own during his first season of full-season ball. In 122 games between Low-A Greensboro and High-A Lake Elsinore, the left-handed hitting Naylor batted .264/.302/.407 with 12 home runs, 75 RBI and 11 steals. Naylor needs to work on his patience at the dish, as he only drew 25 walks in 481 at-bats. However, he also does not strike a ton, as evidenced by his 84 strikeouts over the above-referenced 122-game span in 2016. The Padres are banking on Naylor's home run totals eventually catching up to his massive raw power. He may only be starting to scratch the surface of his enormous power potential.
After being selected with the 12th pick in the 2015 draft, Naylor injected a modicum of hope into perhaps the worst farm system in baseball. The Canadian slugger slashed .327/.352/.418 with one home run in 25 games in his first taste of professional baseball. Perhaps the most impressive aspect of this small sample is the 10.5-percent K rate that he posted after just turning 18 years old in June. He was drafted because of the plus power he offers from the left side, and to show those contact skills at such an early age has to really excite fantasy owners. While a case could easily be made that Naylor is the best fantasy asset in the Marlins’ system, it is also worth noting that he is at least four or five years away from the show, so drafting him in dynasty leagues will require extreme patience.
More Fantasy News
Homers again Tuesday
OFCleveland Guardians
May 10, 2022
Naylor went 2-for-4 with a solo home run in Tuesday's 4-1 loss to the White Sox.
ANALYSIS
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Homers twice, drives in eight
OFCleveland Guardians
May 9, 2022
Naylor went 3-for-5 with two home runs, a double, eight RBI and a walk in Monday's 12-9 win over the White Sox.
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On bench for Game 2
OFCleveland Guardians
May 7, 2022
Naylor isn't starting the second game of Saturday's doubleheader against the Blue Jays.
ANALYSIS
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Not starting nightcap
OFCleveland Guardians
May 4, 2022
Naylor isn't starting the second game of Wednesday's doubleheader against the Padres.
ANALYSIS
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Crushes second homer
OFCleveland Guardians
April 30, 2022
Naylor went 2-for-5 with a two-run home run during Friday's 9-8 victory over the Athletics.
ANALYSIS
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