Austin Riley
Austin Riley
23-Year-Old OutfielderOF
Atlanta Braves
2020 Fantasy Outlook
Baseball is a game of adjustments. After getting the call to the majors in mid-May, Riley went off for nine homers in his first 18 career games, and he still had an OPS north of .900 at the end of June. Then the league caught up to him. Riley hit .169/.221/.324 with a 41.6 K% from the beginning of July until his placement on the IL with a knee ligament issue in early August. He made it back in September but never made the necessary adjustments, slashing an even-worse .132/.190/.263 over the final month of the regular season. Riley was then left off the NLDS roster. Given Riley's pedigree, we should expect skills growth and for him to eventually adapt to the different ways pitchers are approaching him. However, until we see it on the field, there should be some trepidation toward investing heavily in a player with Riley's level of swing and miss. It's not even a lock that he breaks camp with the big club. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#287
ADP
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$Signed a $1.6 million contract with the Braves in June of 2015.
Scores five times in historic win
OFAtlanta Braves
September 10, 2020
Riley went 2-for-5 with two walks, five runs and an RBI in the Braves' 29-9 win over the Marlins on Wednesday.
ANALYSIS
Batting in front of Adam Duvall -- who posted a career-high nine RBI -- proved to be fruitful for Riley, whose five runs matched his output from his previous 11 games combined. Riley is slashing a respectable .257/.350/.400 in September, but his ability to pare down his strikeout rate has probably been a more impressive development to begin the month. He's struck out only twice in his nine starts during that stretch.
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Batting Stats
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2020
2019
2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
2
11
8
15
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
3
3
3
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2018
 
 
+22%
OPS vs LHP
2020
 
 
+22%
OPS vs RHP
2019
 
 
+46%
OPS vs LHP
2018
No Stats
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2018vs Left .852 111 17 8 17 0 .242 .306 .545
Since 2018vs Right .696 364 45 17 55 0 .227 .277 .419
2020vs Left .596 37 4 1 2 0 .206 .243 .353
2020vs Right .728 141 17 6 21 0 .246 .305 .423
2019vs Left .984 74 13 7 15 0 .262 .338 .646
2019vs Right .676 223 28 11 34 0 .215 .260 .416
2018vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2018
 
 
+24%
OPS at Home
2020
 
 
+12%
OPS at Home
2019
 
 
+30%
OPS at Home
2018
No Stats
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2018Home .815 224 37 14 37 0 .246 .313 .502
Since 2018Away .659 251 25 11 35 0 .217 .259 .400
2020Home .747 77 12 3 12 0 .242 .338 .409
2020Away .666 101 9 4 11 0 .235 .257 .408
2019Home .847 147 25 11 25 0 .248 .299 .547
2019Away .654 150 16 7 24 0 .204 .260 .394
2018Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
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Stat Review
How does Austin Riley compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
BB/K
0.30
 
BB Rate
6.7%
 
K Rate
22.5%
 
BABIP
.271
 
ISO
.171
 
AVG
.238
 
OBP
.292
 
SLG
.409
 
OPS
.701
 
wOBA
.308
 
Exit Velocity
83.1 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
32.8%
 
Barrels/PA
8.0%
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2019
2018
2017
2016
Remarkably little has changed regarding Riley's outlook since he made his full-season debut in 2016. The 6-foot-3, 220-pound third baseman still projects as a No. 5 hitter who should provide 30-plus homer power while hitting .250 or .260. He was promoted to Triple-A in early May and missed a month in the middle of the season with a knee injury. After the calendar turned to August, Riley really heated up, hitting .289/.333/.570 with eight home runs in 129 PA. However, strikeouts (31.8 K%) were still an issue during that run and he was not exhibiting much patience (4.8 BB%), so this was not a case of a player being unfairly held down for service time reasons. Riley still has significant approach issues to work on against Triple-A pitching and won't turn 22 until April 2. With the Braves signing Josh Donaldson to a one-year deal and Johan Camargo coming off a 3.3-win (fWAR) season, there won't be any rush to get Riley to Atlanta.
It is pretty obvious at this point in the Braves' rebuild that Riley is the third baseman of the future. He held his own (109 wRC+) as one of the second youngest position players in the Florida State League, prompting an aggressive July promotion to Double-A. That's when he really made his mark. Were it not for teammate and baseball prodigy Ronald Acuna, Riley would have easily been the youngest player to get 200 plate appearances in the Southern League, yet he still proceeded to be 62 percent better than league average while posting his best BB/K (0.40) since rookie ball. He has prototypical size (6-foot-3, 220 pounds) for the hot corner and enough power to challenge for 30-homer campaigns in his peak years, especially in that park. He does not project to hit .300 in the big leagues, but he could be a .270 hitter who walks a decent amount and hits in an advantageous spot in the lineup. If he handles Triple-A the way he handled Double-A, we could see him in Atlanta this summer.
Riley celebrated his 19th birthday on April 2 and five days later got his first taste of life in the middle of a Low-A lineup. He struggled for the first couple months, as most teenagers do when they first face pitchers who can occasionally locate mid-90s cheese and spin breaking balls. However, he made the necessary adjustments and hit .289/.348/.581 with 17 home runs and a 61:22 K:BB over his final 279 plate appearances with Rome. Also notable is the fact that Riley cut his strikeout rate from 32.6 percent in the first half to 21.8 percent in the second half. In a system flush with high-upside arms yet light on impact bat-first position players, Riley boasts the most raw power on the farm. That 65-grade power makes him a top-five third base prospect in the game and will allow him to challenge for the home run crown with High-A Florida while being one of the youngest hitters in the Florida State League.
Standing 6-foot-2 and 230 pounds, Riley generates impressive bat speed and power from the right side of the plate, more than enough to put him on the radar in long-term dynasty and keeper leagues. A supplemental first-round pick in 2015, Riley didn't exactly hit the ground running as a professional, batting .163 with no home runs in his first 14 games with the Gulf Coast League Braves. Riley would go on to hit 12 home runs in his final 46 games between the GCL and Danville of the Appalachian League. He also showed good patience for an 18-year-old, and has the arm to stick at third base. Look for Riley to receive his first full-season assignment in 2016.
More Fantasy News
Goes yard in nightcap Friday
OFAtlanta Braves
September 5, 2020
Riley went 1-for-4 with a solo home run in the second game of Friday's doubleheader against the Nationals.
ANALYSIS
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Drives in three runs
OFAtlanta Braves
August 31, 2020
Riley went 2-for-5 with a three-run triple in Monday's 6-3 win over Boston.
ANALYSIS
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Key factor in early rally
OFAtlanta Braves
August 30, 2020
Riley went 2-for-4 with a two-run home run, an additional run scored and an RBI double in Sunday's 12-10 win over the Phillies.
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Launches fifth homer
OFAtlanta Braves
August 29, 2020
Riley went 2-for-5 with a solo home run in a 7-4 loss to the Phillies on Friday.
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Starts rally with fourth homer
OFAtlanta Braves
August 23, 2020
Riley went 2-for-4 with a two-run home run in Saturday's 6-5 win over the Phillies.
ANALYSIS
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