Tyler Mahle

Tyler Mahle

27-Year-Old PitcherSP
Cincinnati Reds
2022 Fantasy Outlook
2021 was a consolidation season for Mahle, building off the gains made in 2020's shortened campaign, marred a tiny bit by a rough final start against the Pirates. Mahle set a career-high in wins (13), innings (180) and strikeouts (210) while making all 33 starts. While Mahle's K% dropped from 29.6% to 27.7%, he compensated for that by walking fewer (10.1% to 8.7%) and inducing more ground balls (up to 42.2% from 30.9%). Mahle has one big red flag - his home park. He had a 5.63 ERA and hitters posted a .270/.344/.511 line with 19 homers in Great American Ballpark. As we've seen with Rockies pitchers, it's really difficult to manage pitching when you can't use a pitcher's home starts. He didn't have that extreme split in 2020, so there's some hope that it will not persist. Despite the workload increase, Mahle's velocity remained constant at 94.1 mph on average - with that and his ERA estimators in mind, a reprise seems likely. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#132
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $5.2 million contract with the Reds in March of 2022, avoiding arbitration.
Wednesday's game postponed
PCincinnati Reds
May 18, 2022
Mahle won't start as scheduled Wednesday against the Guardians since the game was postponed due to inclement weather.
ANALYSIS
Both teams have a scheduled day off Thursday, so the Wednesday's contest will simply be pushed back a day. Mahle should still start and retain his usual turn through Cincinnati's rotation.
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Pitching Stats
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2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
89
Last 10 Games
89
Last 5 Games
95
How many pitches does Tyler Mahle generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Tyler Mahle generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-22%
BAA vs LHP
2022
Even Split
2021
 
 
-27%
BAA vs LHP
2020
 
 
-19%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2020vs Left .202 563 159 60 100 19 4 11
Since 2020vs Right .258 560 151 43 128 27 4 22
2022vs Left .250 90 19 13 19 3 2 2
2022vs Right .250 73 21 5 17 6 0 1
2021vs Left .198 372 115 34 66 13 1 6
2021vs Right .270 387 95 30 92 18 2 18
2020vs Left .176 101 25 13 15 3 1 3
2020vs Right .218 100 35 8 19 3 2 3
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-37%
ERA on Road
2022
 
 
-18%
ERA at Home
2021
 
 
-59%
ERA on Road
2020
 
 
-39%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2020Home 4.93 1.34 129.2 7 6 0 10.7 3.7 1.7
Since 2020Away 3.13 1.15 132.1 10 6 0 10.3 3.2 0.5
2022Home 5.30 1.45 18.2 0 2 0 8.7 4.8 0.5
2022Away 6.50 1.50 18.0 2 2 0 11.0 4.0 1.0
2021Home 5.63 1.48 78.1 5 4 0 11.3 3.7 2.2
2021Away 2.30 1.04 101.2 8 2 0 9.9 2.8 0.4
2020Home 3.03 0.95 32.2 2 0 0 10.5 3.3 1.4
2020Away 4.97 1.50 12.2 0 2 0 12.8 5.0 0.7
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Tyler Mahle compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
2.22
 
K/9
9.8
 
BB/9
4.4
 
HR/9
0.7
 
Fastball
93.6 mph
 
ERA
5.89
 
WHIP
1.47
 
BABIP
.342
 
GB/FB
0.88
 
Left On Base
56.2%
 
Exit Velocity
81.0 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
3.2%
 
Spin Rate
2219 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
19.4%
 
Swinging Strike
11.8%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Tyler Mahle
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Mercury Rising
4 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the week's starting pitching as warming weather is contributing to more scoring. Sugar Shane McClanahan only has one start, but still tops the AL rankings.
Collette Calls: Still Chasing Wins
5 days ago
Wins have been hard to come by this season. Jason Collette examines early run-support numbers and notes pitchers that have enjoyed good fortune in that regard, and those that have not, like Corbin Burnes.
MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers
9 days ago
Erik Halterman uses Monday's column to compare a player's NFBC average draft position to his Earned Auction Value ranking, beginning his analysis with Marlins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez.
DraftKings MLB: Sunday Breakdown
10 days ago
Chris Morgan is touting Max Kepler as a solid value at home against Daulton Jefferies and the A's.
FanDuel MLB: Sunday Targets
10 days ago
Charlie Morton isn't the pitcher he used to be. As such, Chris Morgan is stacking a few Brewers against him.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
Mahle entered 2020 without a rotation slot, but finished with a breakout season and a guaranteed starting job going into 2021. Injuries first to Anthony DeSclafani and then Wade Miley created the opportunities for Mahle, who turned his strikeout upside into a next-level performance, increasing his K% to 29.6 with a swinging strike rate of 14.7%. Mahle junked his cutter, a pitch that opponents slugged to the tune of .625 in 2019, adding more sliders and splitters instead. Both were plus pitches, and the batting average estimators like xBA support his overall .240 BABIP as a result. Of some concern is that his BB% climbed back up to 10.4%, and that he built his breakout season on the cushion of the Central Division schedule. Be aware that if you want to capitalize on his breakout season, you're not alone - his ADP was around 175 in the NFBC and climbing as of mid-January.
Pitching coach Derek Johnson helped several Reds turn a corner in his first year with the team and Mahle did take steps forward, but those improvements were not reflected in his W-L record or ERA. Mahle overhauled his pitch repertoire, bagging his slider in favor of a curveball while introducing a split-finger pitch for the first time. The curve was middling but the split finger had a positive run value when it was all said and done, and it helped Mahle add more than eight percentage points to his groundball rate. He showed improved control, shaving his walk rate from 10.5% to 6.1%, and the emerging stats that attempt to judge intent give him good marks for command. It's important to note that Mahle tried to hide an injury in 2018 and his numbers suffered greatly for it. Still just 25, Mahle is an interesting flier with upside, though he's on the outside looking in for a rotation spot entering spring training.
For a seven-game stretch last summer, Mahle was the Reds' best starter, compiling a 2.04 ERA over 39.2 innings while striking out 41 batters in the process. Unfortunately, baseball doesn't limit itself to seven-game stretches, and using selective endpoints doesn't even do Mahle that many favors -- he walked 19 batters and had a 1.36 WHIP over that span, but managed to avoid homer-fueled big innings. After that stretch ended on July 6, he made only five more big-league appearances and was shelled in each one of them, earning a trip to the minors after the fourth. He returned for one more bad outing in September before getting shut down with a sore shoulder. Mahle's hard-hit (40.3%) and barrel rates (9.1%) skyrocketed, leading to 22 homers allowed in only 112 innings. The culprits were his secondary pitches; opponents slugged .557 against his slider and .604 on his changeup. He's yet another young pitcher that could fall short for the Reds.
Upside should be the first, second and third thing fantasy owners look for in a pitching prospect, but in 15-team leagues, there is still a place for an innings eater who can locate his pitches without submarining a team's ratios. Enter Mahle, who already boasts plus command of four pitches. The 6-foot-3 righty's fastball isn't quite a plus offering based on velocity, as it sits at 93-94 mph, but the pitch plays up thanks to Mahle's pinpoint command. His slider is a quality second pitch, but his changeup and curveball lag behind as change-of-pace offerings. Mahle likely isn't ready to be much of a positive contributor in his rookie season, but he could be a Zach Davies or Mike Leake type of SP5 or SP6 down the road. He will be given a chance to compete for a rotation spot this spring, but will likely head back to Triple-A and wait for injury or poor performance to open up a spot in the big leagues.
Mahle got off to a scintillating start to the 2016 campaign at High-A Daytona. He features three pitches (fastball, curveball, changeup), and while none of them are superior on their own, his stuff played up due to his superb control and pitchability. A bump to Double-A Pensacola saw the 22-year-old righty come back down to earth a bit, though, as he struggled in 14 starts - chiefly because of the home run, surrendering 12 in 71.1 innings. Mahle works best when keeping the ball down in the zone, something he was able to do at the lower levels. He likely will return to Double-A to begin the 2017 season. Though he does not have true ace potential, his size, command and durability give him the ceiling of a No. 3 starter who can eat innings at the big league level.
A seventh-round pick in 2013 out of high school, Mahle has emerged as an extreme strike-thrower in the Reds organization. In 152 innings at Low-A Dayton, Mahle walked just 25 batters while striking out 135. He's added a couple ticks to his fastball and works around 92-93 mph. Scouting reports suggest that he still needs to improve his secondary offerings. The jump up to High-A will be an important level for Mahle to master.
More Fantasy News
Posts first quality start
PCincinnati Reds
May 13, 2022
Mahle (2-4) earned a win Friday against the Pirates, striking out eight batters across six innings while allowing two runs on five hits and a walk.
ANALYSIS
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Fans six in no-decision
PCincinnati Reds
May 8, 2022
Mahle allowed two runs on one hit and three walks over five innings in Sunday's win over Pittsburgh. He struck out six and did not factor in the decision.
ANALYSIS
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Labors through 3.1 innings
PCincinnati Reds
May 3, 2022
Mahle (1-4) took the loss to the Brewers on Tuesday. He was charged with five runs (four earned) on four hits and three walks with two strikeouts over 3.1 innings.
ANALYSIS
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Takes third loss
PCincinnati Reds
April 28, 2022
Mahle (1-3) took the loss to the Padres on Thursday, allowing three runs on six hits and two walks over 5.1 innings. He struck out five.
ANALYSIS
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Takes second loss
PCincinnati Reds
April 23, 2022
Mahle (1-2) took the loss to the Cardinals on Saturday, allowing two runs on five hits and three walks over 4.1 innings. He struck out three.
ANALYSIS
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