Tyler Mahle
Tyler Mahle
26-Year-Old PitcherSP
Cincinnati Reds
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Mahle entered 2020 without a rotation slot, but finished with a breakout season and a guaranteed starting job going into 2021. Injuries first to Anthony DeSclafani and then Wade Miley created the opportunities for Mahle, who turned his strikeout upside into a next-level performance, increasing his K% to 29.6 with a swinging strike rate of 14.7%. Mahle junked his cutter, a pitch that opponents slugged to the tune of .625 in 2019, adding more sliders and splitters instead. Both were plus pitches, and the batting average estimators like xBA support his overall .240 BABIP as a result. Of some concern is that his BB% climbed back up to 10.4%, and that he built his breakout season on the cushion of the Central Division schedule. Be aware that if you want to capitalize on his breakout season, you're not alone - his ADP was around 175 in the NFBC and climbing as of mid-January. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#174
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $2.2 million contract with the Reds in January of 2021.
Tosses quality start Friday
PCincinnati Reds
September 10, 2021
Mahle allowed two runs on four hits and two walks while striking out six over six innings against St. Louis on Friday. He did not factor in the decision.
ANALYSIS
Mahle's performance was a tangible improvement over his last start, when he gave up four runs in five innings against Detroit. However, the right-hander picked up a win in that contest while walking away with a no-decision Friday. The two runs against him came as the result of a Yadier Molina long ball in the fourth inning, which was the only extra-base hit Mahle yielded in the outing. He has been a solid performer throughout the campaign, posting a 3.73 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 188:56 K:BB and 11-5 record through 159.1 innings. Mahle's next start is a favorable matchup at Pittsburgh next week.
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Pitching Stats
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2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
97
Last 10 Games
102
Last 5 Games
102
How many pitches does Tyler Mahle generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Tyler Mahle generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-13%
BAA vs LHP
2021
 
 
-31%
BAA vs LHP
2020
 
 
-19%
BAA vs LHP
2019
 
 
-11%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2019vs Left .222 671 180 61 133 27 2 23
Since 2019vs Right .255 756 197 50 173 30 4 31
2021vs Left .186 312 102 27 52 13 0 5
2021vs Right .268 358 86 29 84 17 2 18
2020vs Left .176 101 25 13 15 3 1 3
2020vs Right .218 100 35 8 19 3 2 3
2019vs Left .282 258 53 21 66 11 1 15
2019vs Right .252 298 76 13 70 10 0 10
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-35%
ERA on Road
2021
 
 
-68%
ERA on Road
2020
 
 
-39%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-15%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2019Home 5.28 1.36 150.0 8 7 0 10.7 3.7 2.0
Since 2019Away 3.42 1.13 184.1 8 12 0 9.5 2.3 1.0
2021Home 6.09 1.50 68.0 4 3 0 11.4 3.6 2.4
2021Away 1.97 0.99 91.1 7 2 0 10.1 2.9 0.5
2020Home 3.03 0.95 32.2 2 0 0 10.5 3.3 1.4
2020Away 4.97 1.50 12.2 0 2 0 12.8 5.0 0.7
2019Home 5.66 1.44 49.1 2 4 0 10.0 4.2 2.0
2019Away 4.82 1.23 80.1 1 8 0 8.3 1.2 1.6
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Tyler Mahle compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
3.36
 
K/9
10.6
 
BB/9
3.2
 
HR/9
1.3
 
Fastball
94.1 mph
 
ERA
3.73
 
WHIP
1.21
 
BABIP
.302
 
GB/FB
1.24
 
Left On Base
77.6%
 
Exit Velocity
79.7 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
3.5%
 
Spin Rate
2322 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
18.2%
 
Swinging Strike
12.2%
 
Prospect Rankings History
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Tyler Mahle
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: The Race to 200 Innings
5 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the week's starting pitching as top-ranked Gerrit Cole likely will be with the great majority of starters who won't reach 200 innings this year.
MLB Betting: Friday Best Bets
6 days ago
Juan Carlos Blanco dives into the Friday slate and identifies his best MLB bets for the night, including some strikeout props. Will Robbie Ray continue to miss bats when he faces the Orioles in Camden Yards?
MLB Betting: Saturday Best Bets
12 days ago
Juan Blanco has the Rangers hammering the Angels among his best bets for Saturday.
DraftKings MLB: Saturday Breakdown
12 days ago
Despite Tyler Mahle's overall success, Christopher Olson believes Akil Baddoo is worth a value play based on how he's been hitting righties all season.
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: A September to Remember?
12 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the week's starting pitching as September opens with both Cy Young awards still to be decided.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
Pitching coach Derek Johnson helped several Reds turn a corner in his first year with the team and Mahle did take steps forward, but those improvements were not reflected in his W-L record or ERA. Mahle overhauled his pitch repertoire, bagging his slider in favor of a curveball while introducing a split-finger pitch for the first time. The curve was middling but the split finger had a positive run value when it was all said and done, and it helped Mahle add more than eight percentage points to his groundball rate. He showed improved control, shaving his walk rate from 10.5% to 6.1%, and the emerging stats that attempt to judge intent give him good marks for command. It's important to note that Mahle tried to hide an injury in 2018 and his numbers suffered greatly for it. Still just 25, Mahle is an interesting flier with upside, though he's on the outside looking in for a rotation spot entering spring training.
For a seven-game stretch last summer, Mahle was the Reds' best starter, compiling a 2.04 ERA over 39.2 innings while striking out 41 batters in the process. Unfortunately, baseball doesn't limit itself to seven-game stretches, and using selective endpoints doesn't even do Mahle that many favors -- he walked 19 batters and had a 1.36 WHIP over that span, but managed to avoid homer-fueled big innings. After that stretch ended on July 6, he made only five more big-league appearances and was shelled in each one of them, earning a trip to the minors after the fourth. He returned for one more bad outing in September before getting shut down with a sore shoulder. Mahle's hard-hit (40.3%) and barrel rates (9.1%) skyrocketed, leading to 22 homers allowed in only 112 innings. The culprits were his secondary pitches; opponents slugged .557 against his slider and .604 on his changeup. He's yet another young pitcher that could fall short for the Reds.
Upside should be the first, second and third thing fantasy owners look for in a pitching prospect, but in 15-team leagues, there is still a place for an innings eater who can locate his pitches without submarining a team's ratios. Enter Mahle, who already boasts plus command of four pitches. The 6-foot-3 righty's fastball isn't quite a plus offering based on velocity, as it sits at 93-94 mph, but the pitch plays up thanks to Mahle's pinpoint command. His slider is a quality second pitch, but his changeup and curveball lag behind as change-of-pace offerings. Mahle likely isn't ready to be much of a positive contributor in his rookie season, but he could be a Zach Davies or Mike Leake type of SP5 or SP6 down the road. He will be given a chance to compete for a rotation spot this spring, but will likely head back to Triple-A and wait for injury or poor performance to open up a spot in the big leagues.
Mahle got off to a scintillating start to the 2016 campaign at High-A Daytona. He features three pitches (fastball, curveball, changeup), and while none of them are superior on their own, his stuff played up due to his superb control and pitchability. A bump to Double-A Pensacola saw the 22-year-old righty come back down to earth a bit, though, as he struggled in 14 starts - chiefly because of the home run, surrendering 12 in 71.1 innings. Mahle works best when keeping the ball down in the zone, something he was able to do at the lower levels. He likely will return to Double-A to begin the 2017 season. Though he does not have true ace potential, his size, command and durability give him the ceiling of a No. 3 starter who can eat innings at the big league level.
A seventh-round pick in 2013 out of high school, Mahle has emerged as an extreme strike-thrower in the Reds organization. In 152 innings at Low-A Dayton, Mahle walked just 25 batters while striking out 135. He's added a couple ticks to his fastball and works around 92-93 mph. Scouting reports suggest that he still needs to improve his secondary offerings. The jump up to High-A will be an important level for Mahle to master.
More Fantasy News
Gets win despite mediocre start
PCincinnati Reds
September 4, 2021
Mahle (11-5) allowed four earned runs on six hits and five walks while striking out eight across five innings, taking the win over the Tigers on Saturday.
ANALYSIS
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Takes tough-luck loss
PCincinnati Reds
August 29, 2021
Mahle (10-5) allowed two runs on four hits and two walks over seven innings Sunday, striking out six and taking a loss against the Marlins.
ANALYSIS
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Fans eight in no-decision
PCincinnati Reds
August 25, 2021
Mahle didn't factor into the decision Tuesday against the Brewers after tossing 5.2 innings of one-run ball, allowing five hits and a walk while fanning eight.
ANALYSIS
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Allows five runs in loss
PCincinnati Reds
August 19, 2021
Mahle (10-4) allowed five runs on eight hits and one walk while striking out five over five innings in a loss to the Cubs on Wednesday.
ANALYSIS
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Fires seven shutout innings in win
PCincinnati Reds
August 13, 2021
Mahle (10-3) earned the win Friday over Philadelphia. He threw seven scoreless innings while allowing three hits and zero walks while striking out seven.
ANALYSIS
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