Shane Bieber

In Bieber's rookie campaign, his 4.55 ERA was more than a run higher than his 3.23 xFIP and 3.45 SIERA. Once again, the ERA estimators proved prescient as Bieber posted a 3.28 ERA, perfectly supported with a 3.23 xFIP and 3.36 SIERA. Bieber's 93-mph fastball isn't overpowering, but he deploys a four-pitch mix with excellent control, changing speeds and eye levels effectively. The result is a dominating 25.5 K-BB%. Curiously, Bieber's average exit velocity allowed, and hard-hit rate are very poor, around 4th percentile. Last season's .296 BABIP wasn't affected much, but there's noteworthy concern as evidenced by a .246 xBA -- 17 points higher than his actual .229 mark. The high average exit velocity was responsible for 31 homers in 214.1 innings. Bieber will be drafted as an ace, rightfully so. Just beware there's some risk if he doesn't induce weaker contact. If he does, he's elite.

The surface numbers from Bieber's rookie season leave a lot to be desired, but he was much better than a 4.55 ERA and 1.33 WHIP would suggest. After getting the call in late May, Bieber struck out more than five batters for every one he walked (5.13 K/BB, 19.6% K-BB) while maintaining an above-average groundball rate (46.6%). A sub-70 percent strand rate and .356 BABIP skewed the ratios. In the end, all three of his FIP, xFIP and SIERA were more than a full run lower than his ERA. Bieber wasn't afraid to challenge hitters, throwing first-pitch strikes 66.4% of the time, and he used his breaking stuff later in counts to get swinging strikes. He doesn't overpower hitters with the fastball, but Bieber's pitch mix and command put him in position to be successful for a long time in the major leagues. He threw 194.1 innings between the majors and minors last year and shouldn't have any real limitations in 2019. This is a pitcher you want on your team.