Chris Paddack
Chris Paddack
25-Year-Old PitcherSP
San Diego Padres
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Paddack was the talk of baseball for a while in 2019 as he made the jump from Double-A and hit the ground running, cruising to a 3.33 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over 140.2 innings as a 23-year-old. His changeup remained a great weapon in 2020, but his fastball suddenly became entirely too hittable. Major League Baseball combined to hit .308 with a .658 SLG against Paddack's four-seam fastball in 2020, up from .204 and .391 the season prior. Of the 14 homers Paddack allowed, 10 were against the four-seamer. Aside from a minor ankle injury in September, Paddack was ostensibly healthy. His average velocity on his four-seamer held steady, supporting the idea his arm is fine. Paddack, who had Tommy John surgery earlier in his career, is just entering his age-25 season and should theoretically be well rested and capable of handling a relatively heavy workload in 2020. There are some lingering questions, however. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
#107
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $555,000 contract with the Padres in March of 2019.
Allows six runs in loss
PSan Diego Padres
October 1, 2020
Paddack took the loss to the Cardinals on Wednesday in Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Series. He gave up six runs on eight hits while striking out one batter without a walk in 2.1 innings.
ANALYSIS
Paddack's fastball was a problem throughout the regular season, and while he had decent velocity Wednesday, the Cardinals had no trouble squaring up the pitch. Three of the four base-scoring hits against Paddack were off 94-mph offerings. He has taken a dramatic step backward after his stellar 2019 debut and will make for an interesting fantasy wild card in 2021.
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Pitching Stats
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2020
2019
2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
78
Last 10 Games
75
Last 5 Games
67
How many pitches does Chris Paddack generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Chris Paddack generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2018
 
 
-7%
BAA vs RHP
2020
 
 
-7%
BAA vs RHP
2019
 
 
-6%
BAA vs RHP
2018
No Stats
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2018vs Left .229 422 95 26 89 17 3 20
Since 2018vs Right .214 391 116 17 78 16 0 17
2020vs Left .270 132 26 8 33 4 2 8
2020vs Right .252 113 32 4 27 8 0 6
2019vs Left .211 290 69 18 56 13 1 12
2019vs Right .198 278 84 13 51 8 0 11
2018vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2018
 
 
-15%
ERA at Home
2020
 
 
-24%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-13%
ERA at Home
2018
No Stats
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2018Home 3.41 0.93 92.1 8 5 0 9.6 1.6 1.4
Since 2018Away 4.02 1.16 107.1 5 7 0 9.4 2.3 1.9
2020Home 4.11 1.08 30.2 2 2 0 9.1 1.8 2.1
2020Away 5.40 1.38 28.1 2 3 0 8.6 1.9 2.2
2019Home 3.06 0.86 61.2 6 3 0 9.9 1.5 1.0
2019Away 3.53 1.08 79.0 3 4 0 9.7 2.4 1.8
2018Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Chris Paddack compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
4.83
 
K/9
8.8
 
BB/9
1.8
 
HR/9
2.1
 
Fastball
94.2 mph
 
ERA
4.73
 
WHIP
1.22
 
BABIP
.298
 
GB/FB
1.86
 
Left On Base
74.4%
 
Exit Velocity
83.2 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
6.7%
 
Spin Rate
2041 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
30.3%
 
Swinging Strike
11.8%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Chris Paddack
Bernie on the Scene: Analyzing NL Offseason Moves
5 days ago
Bernie Pleskoff analyzes some key offseason moves in the National League, including the Indians shipping Francisco Lindor to the Mets.
The Z Files: Starting Pitchers -- A Tierful Experience
59 days ago
Todd Zola offers an alternative to a standard tiered approach to drafting, intended to help determine whether rostering an aging ace like Max Scherzer is right for your squad.
Super Early Top 400 for 2021
102 days ago
James Anderson releases his super early top 400 redraft rankings, which features a trio of Atlanta hitters in the top 20.
Yahoo DFS Baseball: Thursday Picks
107 days ago
Thursday is a big day for baseball with all four series featuring potential elimination games, and Mike Barner is here with his Yahoo player picks to help you build a winning lineup.
Yahoo DFS Baseball: Wednesday Picks
108 days ago
Mike Barner is looking toward a Dodgers stack in Game 2 against the Padres on Wednesday.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2017
Paddack followed his eye-opening run of success in the minors with an impressive rookie season, emerging as the ace of San Diego's staff. The right-hander paired excellent control (5.5 BB%) and strong strikeout numbers (26.9 K%) to post the fifth-lowest WHIP in the majors (0.98) among pitchers who hurled 100 or more innings. Paddack's fastball isn't overpowering -- it sits at around 94 mph and is thrown with average spin -- but opponents managed to hit only .204 against it due to Paddack's superb command and intelligent mound mechanics. His changeup was even more difficult to handle; Paddack went to the pitch 28.5% of the time, holding hitters to a .190 average. The Padres limited Paddack's workload last season, but he proved his stamina with four dominant starts to close the season. He'll be three years removed from Tommy John surgery in 2020 and should thrive as he's freed to pitch without limitations.
Significant help is finally coming for the Padres’ rotation in 2019, with Paddack leading the way. His fastball doesn’t generate plus readings on the radar gun (typically 93-94 mph), but at 6-foot-4, he gets great extension on the pitch, and plus command allows it to play up at least a full grade. Paddack may have the best changeup in the minors, which, coupled with his fastball command, has enabled him to log a 1.82 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 230:20 K:BB in 177.2 career innings while holding opposing hitters to a .193 AVG. His success to this point is unparalleled. He could make it as a No. 3 starter with his current repertoire. However, if he can improve his breaking ball and/or add another tick to his fastball in his second year back from Tommy John surgery, Paddack could profile as a No. 1 starter. The Padres limited him to 85 pitches per outing in 2018, but they should set him loose this year. He could join the big-league rotation around the All-Star break.
Paddack turned himself into a hot commodity to begin the 2016 campaign, as the 20-year-old posted an absurd 48:2 K:BB in 28.1 innings at Low-A in the Marlins' organization. With a 0.95 ERA to boot, Paddack was traded at the height of his value to the Padres in the Fernando Rodney deal. He continued to dominate through three starts, notching a 0.64 ERA and 23:3 K:BB in 14 subsequent innings for Low-A Fort Wayne. Unfortunately, he then started experiencing elbow problems, was diagnosed with a torn UCL and ultimately underwent Tommy John surgery in August. As a result, he will likely miss the entirety of the 2017 season. When healthy, Paddack combines his sneaky low-90s fastball with a changeup and exceptional command. The development of a third pitch will determine his future path, if he can return to form following surgery.
More Fantasy News
Starting playoff opener
PSan Diego Padres
September 29, 2020
Paddack will start Wednesday in Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Series against the Cardinals, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
ANALYSIS
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Will make wild-card roster
PSan Diego Padres
September 27, 2020
According to Padres manager Jayce Tingler, Paddack will "absolutely" be on the roster for the upcoming wild-card series, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
ANALYSIS
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Struggles in short outing
PSan Diego Padres
September 26, 2020
Paddack (4-5) allowed five runs on eight hits -- including three home runs -- and one walk while striking out three across 3.2 innings to take the loss against the Giants on Friday.
ANALYSIS
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Blanks Mariners through six
PSan Diego Padres
September 18, 2020
Paddack (4-4) picked up the win Friday after holding the Mariners scoreless with three strikeouts across six innings. He allowed two walks and one hit.
ANALYSIS
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Cleared to start Friday
PSan Diego Padres
September 15, 2020
Paddack (ankle) will start Friday's game against the Dodgers, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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