Chris Paddack

Chris Paddack

25-Year-Old PitcherSP
San Diego Padres
10-Day IL
Injury Elbow
Est. Return 2/1/2022
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Paddack was the talk of baseball for a while in 2019 as he made the jump from Double-A and hit the ground running, cruising to a 3.33 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over 140.2 innings as a 23-year-old. His changeup remained a great weapon in 2020, but his fastball suddenly became entirely too hittable. Major League Baseball combined to hit .308 with a .658 SLG against Paddack's four-seam fastball in 2020, up from .204 and .391 the season prior. Of the 14 homers Paddack allowed, 10 were against the four-seamer. Aside from a minor ankle injury in September, Paddack was ostensibly healthy. His average velocity on his four-seamer held steady, supporting the idea his arm is fine. Paddack, who had Tommy John surgery earlier in his career, is just entering his age-25 season and should theoretically be well rested and capable of handling a relatively heavy workload in 2021. There are some lingering questions, however. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#109
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $555,000 contract with the Padres in March of 2019.
Gets elbow injection
PSan Diego Padres
Elbow
September 29, 2021
Paddack received an injection in his right elbow earlier this week and is expected to make a full recovery from a slight UCL sprain in 6-to-8 weeks, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
ANALYSIS
Paddack had his elbow checked out by Dr. Keith Meister, who previously oversaw the right-hander's Tommy John surgery in 2016. Fortunately for Paddack, he was recommended to treat the elbow injury through non-surgical means this time around, setting him up for what should be a relatively normal offseason. Before being shut down for good Sept. 13, Paddack turned in a 5.08 ERA across 108.1 innings.
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Pitching Stats
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2021
2020
2019
2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
81
Last 10 Games
78
Last 5 Games
85
How many pitches does Chris Paddack generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Chris Paddack generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-12%
BAA vs LHP
2021
 
 
-34%
BAA vs LHP
2020
 
 
-7%
BAA vs RHP
2019
 
 
-6%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2019vs Left .224 653 142 39 135 28 4 25
Since 2019vs Right .255 619 168 26 147 27 3 27
2021vs Left .214 231 47 13 46 11 1 5
2021vs Right .325 228 52 9 69 11 3 10
2020vs Left .270 132 26 8 33 4 2 8
2020vs Right .252 113 32 4 27 8 0 6
2019vs Left .211 290 69 18 56 13 1 12
2019vs Right .198 278 84 13 51 8 0 11
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-9%
ERA on Road
2021
 
 
-36%
ERA on Road
2020
 
 
-24%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-13%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2019Home 4.41 1.16 140.2 11 9 0 9.5 1.9 1.3
Since 2019Away 4.03 1.10 167.1 9 10 0 8.7 1.9 1.7
2021Home 6.33 1.59 48.1 3 4 0 9.1 2.4 1.3
2021Away 4.05 1.00 60.0 4 3 0 7.5 1.4 1.2
2020Home 4.11 1.08 30.2 2 2 0 9.1 1.8 2.1
2020Away 5.40 1.38 28.1 2 3 0 8.6 1.9 2.2
2019Home 3.06 0.86 61.2 6 3 0 9.9 1.5 1.0
2019Away 3.53 1.08 79.0 3 4 0 9.7 2.4 1.8
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Chris Paddack compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
4.50
 
K/9
8.2
 
BB/9
1.8
 
HR/9
1.2
 
Fastball
94.9 mph
 
ERA
5.07
 
WHIP
1.26
 
BABIP
.326
 
GB/FB
1.43
 
Left On Base
60.7%
 
Exit Velocity
82.4 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.9%
 
Spin Rate
2080 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
25.2%
 
Swinging Strike
11.6%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Chris Paddack
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2 days ago
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Weekly Pitcher Rankings: The Race to 200 Innings
47 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the week's starting pitching as top-ranked Gerrit Cole likely will be with the great majority of starters who won't reach 200 innings this year.
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47 days ago
Christopher Olson figures Joey Votto is a must for your lineups based on his low salary and matchup against Miles Mikolas and the Cards.
FanDuel MLB: Saturday Targets
47 days ago
Chris Bennett recommends Aaron Judge and a possible Yankees stack against Mets pitcher Taijuan Walker.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2017
Paddack followed his eye-opening run of success in the minors with an impressive rookie season, emerging as the ace of San Diego's staff. The right-hander paired excellent control (5.5 BB%) and strong strikeout numbers (26.9 K%) to post the fifth-lowest WHIP in the majors (0.98) among pitchers who hurled 100 or more innings. Paddack's fastball isn't overpowering -- it sits at around 94 mph and is thrown with average spin -- but opponents managed to hit only .204 against it due to Paddack's superb command and intelligent mound mechanics. His changeup was even more difficult to handle; Paddack went to the pitch 28.5% of the time, holding hitters to a .190 average. The Padres limited Paddack's workload last season, but he proved his stamina with four dominant starts to close the season. He'll be three years removed from Tommy John surgery in 2020 and should thrive as he's freed to pitch without limitations.
Significant help is finally coming for the Padres’ rotation in 2019, with Paddack leading the way. His fastball doesn’t generate plus readings on the radar gun (typically 93-94 mph), but at 6-foot-4, he gets great extension on the pitch, and plus command allows it to play up at least a full grade. Paddack may have the best changeup in the minors, which, coupled with his fastball command, has enabled him to log a 1.82 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 230:20 K:BB in 177.2 career innings while holding opposing hitters to a .193 AVG. His success to this point is unparalleled. He could make it as a No. 3 starter with his current repertoire. However, if he can improve his breaking ball and/or add another tick to his fastball in his second year back from Tommy John surgery, Paddack could profile as a No. 1 starter. The Padres limited him to 85 pitches per outing in 2018, but they should set him loose this year. He could join the big-league rotation around the All-Star break.
Paddack turned himself into a hot commodity to begin the 2016 campaign, as the 20-year-old posted an absurd 48:2 K:BB in 28.1 innings at Low-A in the Marlins' organization. With a 0.95 ERA to boot, Paddack was traded at the height of his value to the Padres in the Fernando Rodney deal. He continued to dominate through three starts, notching a 0.64 ERA and 23:3 K:BB in 14 subsequent innings for Low-A Fort Wayne. Unfortunately, he then started experiencing elbow problems, was diagnosed with a torn UCL and ultimately underwent Tommy John surgery in August. As a result, he will likely miss the entirety of the 2017 season. When healthy, Paddack combines his sneaky low-90s fastball with a changeup and exceptional command. The development of a third pitch will determine his future path, if he can return to form following surgery.
More Fantasy News
Won't return in 2021
PSan Diego Padres
Elbow
September 28, 2021
Paddack (elbow) has been ruled out from returning to pitch this season, Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Throwing, but may be done for '21
PSan Diego Padres
Elbow
September 19, 2021
Paddack (elbow) played catch from 75 feet Saturday, but multiple sources familiar with his health situation don't expect him to pitch again in the regular season, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
ANALYSIS
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Lands on IL
PSan Diego Padres
Elbow
September 13, 2021
Paddack was placed on the 10-day injured list Monday due to right elbow inflammation.
ANALYSIS
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Can't escape fifth inning
PSan Diego Padres
September 11, 2021
Paddack (7-7) took the loss in Saturday's 5-4 defeat at the hands of the Dodgers, allowing four runs on three hits and two walks with five strikeouts in 4.2 innings.
ANALYSIS
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Posts quality start
PSan Diego Padres
September 5, 2021
Paddack allowed three earned runs on six hits while striking out two across six innings in the win over the Astros on Sunday. He did not factor into the decision.
ANALYSIS
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