Brad Keller

Brad Keller

26-Year-Old PitcherSP
Kansas City Royals
2022 Fantasy Outlook
Keller had a 3.50 ERA across his first three big-league campaigns, but he struggled mightily last year 5.39 ERA in 26 starts. The 26-year-old saw his strikeout rate rise over three percent to 19.6, but his walk rate also moved up to a career-worst 10.4 percent. His groundball rate also dropped to 47.8 percent after being over 50 percent his first three seasons. As a groundball pitcher that doesn't rely on strikeouts Keller's upside remains limited, but he could be a good rebound candidate given his success prior to 2021. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#569
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $4.83 million contract with the Royals in March of 2022.
Takes loss against Twins
PKansas City Royals
May 21, 2022
Keller (1-4) allowed four runs on five hits and three walks over seven innings to take the loss to the Twins on Saturday. He struck out four.
ANALYSIS
Free passes came back to haunt Keller in the third and sixth innings. Even after this step backward, Keller still has a 3.20 ERA and 1.03 WHIP this season, an improvement driven in large part by a reduction in walk rate to this point. Keller lacks swing-and-miss dominance and the team context is a negative, but he keeps the ball on the ground and is firmly in the streaming territory for fantasy baseball.
Read More News
Pitching Stats
Loading Pitching Stats...
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2022 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
FantasyDraft
Head2Head
Loading Pitching Game Log...
2021 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
FantasyDraft
Head2Head
Loading Pitching Game Log...
2020 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
FantasyDraft
Head2Head
Loading Pitching Game Log...
2019 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
FantasyDraft
Head2Head
Loading Pitching Game Log...
2018 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
FantasyDraft
Head2Head
Loading Pitching Game Log...
Minor League Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Loading Minor League Pitching Game Log...
Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
89
Last 10 Games
89
Last 5 Games
93
How many pitches does Brad Keller generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Brad Keller generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-3%
BAA vs RHP
2022
 
 
-2%
BAA vs LHP
2021
 
 
-3%
BAA vs RHP
2020
 
 
-14%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2020vs Left .264 542 106 54 126 14 2 15
Since 2020vs Right .256 486 78 39 111 21 1 10
2022vs Left .214 92 15 8 18 0 1 4
2022vs Right .218 108 14 4 22 6 0 1
2021vs Left .301 315 72 31 83 14 1 9
2021vs Right .293 298 48 33 75 13 1 9
2020vs Left .214 135 19 15 25 0 0 2
2020vs Right .184 80 16 2 14 2 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-33%
ERA at Home
2022
 
 
-48%
ERA at Home
2021
 
 
-15%
ERA on Road
2020
 
 
-95%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2020Home 3.41 1.14 121.1 7 8 0 6.8 2.5 0.7
Since 2020Away 5.12 1.63 117.2 7 11 0 7.1 4.5 1.2
2022Home 2.43 0.93 33.1 1 2 0 5.1 2.4 0.5
2022Away 4.67 1.21 17.1 0 2 0 5.2 1.6 1.6
2021Home 5.89 1.49 55.0 2 6 0 8.0 2.9 1.1
2021Away 5.03 1.78 78.2 6 6 0 8.1 5.3 1.3
2020Home 0.27 0.76 33.0 4 0 0 6.3 1.9 0.0
2020Away 5.82 1.43 21.2 1 3 0 5.0 4.2 0.8
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Brad Keller compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
2.42
 
K/9
5.2
 
BB/9
2.1
 
HR/9
0.9
 
Fastball
93.2 mph
 
ERA
3.20
 
WHIP
1.03
 
BABIP
.235
 
GB/FB
1.82
 
Left On Base
71.1%
 
Exit Velocity
83.3 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.8%
 
Spin Rate
2333 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
29.1%
 
Swinging Strike
9.0%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
Loading Advanced Pitching Stats...
Defensive Stats
Loading MLB Defensive Stats...
Stats Vs Today's Lineup
Want more matchup stats?
Loading Matchup Stats...
Our full team depth charts are reserved for RotoWire subscribers.
Subscribe Now
Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Brad Keller
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Decision Time
Yesterday
Todd Zola ranks the week's starting pitching as we've reached the point where fantasy owners must decide whether to continue to stream pitchers.
FanDuel MLB: Saturday Targets
Yesterday
Chris Bennett likes Justin Verlander Saturday against the Rangers as he’s had a 33-FDP floor to date.
DraftKings MLB: Saturday Breakdown
Yesterday
Dan Marcus breaks down the Saturday Draftkings MLB contest as the Brewers hope to jump on Washington lefty Patrick Corbin.
Yahoo DFS Baseball: Saturday Picks
Yesterday
Chris Morgan picks the Saturday Yahoo DFS contest as Justin Verlander keeps rolling.
The Z Files: Sometimes, Crime Does Pay
2 days ago
Todd Zola examines the league-wide stolen-base environment and identifies some speedy players who could be valuable as streaming options, including Andres Gimenez.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2021
2020
2019
The results showed up for Keller in his third season in the big leagues, even if the way he garnered them was not as scripted. Keller spent the prior offseason talking about his desire to add a curveball to his repertoire and how the pitch was going to help him in his ongoing battle against lefties. That curveball never showed up in pitch tracking, but his slider usage jumped up quite a bit, so much so that it was two pitch events away from being his most-utilized pitch. The league hit .187 off his slider and .179 off his four-seam fastball, and the fact he threw those two pitches nearly 80% of the time is where the step forward came from. That said, the expected batting average on his fastball was .280, and the slider .248, so use those as a starting point when trying to gauge what a step back could look like.
Keller improved his innings count from 140.1 in 2018 to 165.1 in 2019, but was still shut down at the end of August as the Royals sought to limit his workload. The right-hander's ERA rose to 4.19 in his second year in the majors after he posted a 3.08 ERA in 2018. Keller improved his strikeout rate to 17.2% in 2019, but it was still the sixth-worst rate among qualified pitchers. The 24-year-old rode his sinker to one of the lowest home-run rates in the league, helping make up for the lack of dominance to an extent. Kauffman Stadium allowed the second-fewest home runs in baseball last season, but Keller's home-run rate was almost identical at home and on the road, which is a mark in his favor. Keller could finally see something close to a full season of work in the majors, but the low-end strikeout total and struggles to limit baserunners render him a streamer at best.
A Rule 5 pick last winter, Keller spent the first couple months in the Royals' bullpen before transitioning to a starting role. He was one of Kansas City's most effective arms down the stretch, posting a 2.25 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over his final eight starts (52 innings), bringing his season ERA down to a shiny 3.08. The right-hander achieved that mark despite a middling 6.2 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 -- his 7.9 K-BB% ranked 85th among 88 pitchers with 140 innings. What he lacked in terms of dominance he made up for with groundballs (54.4%), and in turn limiting homers (0.45 HR/9). While he does not have elite velocity, Keller's fastball graded out as one of the best among regular starters thanks to the pitch's movement. His slider was also above average according to FanGraphs' Pitch Values. If he could create a bigger velocity gap between his fastball and changeup, Keller could be something, but until then he'll be a risky, low-K arm on a bad team.
More Fantasy News
Coughs up three runs
PKansas City Royals
May 16, 2022
Keller allowed three runs on eight hits over seven innings in Monday's loss to the White Sox. He struck out three and did not factor in the decision.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Allows 10 baserunners in loss
PKansas City Royals
May 10, 2022
Keller (1-3) took the loss after giving up six runs (five earned) over 5.2 innings in a 6-4 defeat Tuesday in Texas. He allowed nine hits and a walk while striking out three.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Earns first win
PKansas City Royals
May 3, 2022
Keller (1-2) picked up the victory, allowing four hits and three walks while striking out two in 6.1 scoreless innings in a 7-1 win Tuesday over St. Louis.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Solid seven innings in no-decision
PKansas City Royals
April 29, 2022
Keller (0-2) didn't factor into the decision during Thursday's 5-2 win over the White Sox, allowing three hits and a home run with three strikeouts in seven innings.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Surrenders three in loss
PKansas City Royals
April 22, 2022
Keller (0-2) was handed the loss during Friday's 4-1 loss at the hands of the Mariners, allowing four runs (three earned) on six hits and two walks with four strikeouts in 4.2 innings.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.