Brad Keller
Brad Keller
25-Year-Old PitcherSP
Kansas City Royals
2021 Fantasy Outlook
The results showed up for Keller in his third season in the big leagues, even if the way he garnered them was not as scripted. Keller spent the prior offseason talking about his desire to add a curveball to his repertoire and how the pitch was going to help him in his ongoing battle against lefties. That curveball never showed up in pitch tracking, but his slider usage jumped up quite a bit, so much so that it was two pitch events away from being his most-utilized pitch. The league hit .187 off his slider and .179 off his four-seam fastball, and the fact he threw those two pitches nearly 80% of the time is where the step forward came from. That said, the expected batting average on his fastball was .280, and the slider .248, so use those as a starting point when trying to gauge what a step back could look like. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#352
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $3.35 million contract with the Royals in January of 2021.
Fans seven in third win
PKansas City Royals
May 14, 2021
Keller (3-4) picked up the win in the first game of Friday's doubleheader against the White Sox, allowing two runs on five hits and three walks over five innings. He struck out seven.
ANALYSIS
The right-hander tossed 60 of 97 pitches for strikes while setting a new season high in K's. Keller has started to turn things around after a rough start to the year, posting a 3.80 ERA and 20:7 K:BB over his last four outings and 21.1 innings, although he also gave up five unearned runs during that stretch.
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Pitching Stats
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2021
2020
2019
2018
2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
80
Last 10 Games
80
Last 5 Games
85
How many pitches does Brad Keller generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Brad Keller generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2019
Even Split
2021
 
 
-14%
BAA vs LHP
2020
 
 
-14%
BAA vs RHP
2019
 
 
-3%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2019vs Left .250 587 107 69 126 14 5 11
Since 2019vs Right .249 500 79 34 113 19 6 11
2021vs Left .307 88 18 9 23 6 1 2
2021vs Right .359 75 11 7 23 6 0 3
2020vs Left .214 135 19 15 25 0 0 2
2020vs Right .184 80 16 2 14 2 0 0
2019vs Left .251 364 70 45 78 8 4 7
2019vs Right .243 345 52 25 76 11 6 8
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-18%
ERA at Home
2021
 
 
-48%
ERA on Road
2020
 
 
-95%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-1%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2019Home 3.71 1.16 114.0 9 8 0 6.9 3.2 0.6
Since 2019Away 4.52 1.51 139.1 6 13 0 6.3 4.1 1.0
2021Home 9.20 1.91 14.2 1 2 0 7.4 4.3 0.6
2021Away 4.82 1.82 18.2 2 2 0 8.2 4.3 1.9
2020Home 0.27 0.76 33.0 4 0 0 6.3 1.9 0.0
2020Away 5.82 1.43 21.2 1 3 0 5.0 4.2 0.8
2019Home 4.21 1.19 66.1 4 6 0 7.2 3.5 0.8
2019Away 4.18 1.46 99.0 3 8 0 6.3 4.0 0.8
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Brad Keller compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
1.81
 
K/9
7.8
 
BB/9
4.3
 
HR/9
1.4
 
Fastball
94.0 mph
 
ERA
6.75
 
WHIP
1.86
 
BABIP
.387
 
GB/FB
1.79
 
Left On Base
58.2%
 
Exit Velocity
82.8 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
6.8%
 
Spin Rate
2314 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
27.3%
 
Swinging Strike
9.9%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
Keller improved his innings count from 140.1 in 2018 to 165.1 in 2019, but was still shut down at the end of August as the Royals sought to limit his workload. The right-hander's ERA rose to 4.19 in his second year in the majors after he posted a 3.08 ERA in 2018. Keller improved his strikeout rate to 17.2% in 2019, but it was still the sixth-worst rate among qualified pitchers. The 24-year-old rode his sinker to one of the lowest home-run rates in the league, helping make up for the lack of dominance to an extent. Kauffman Stadium allowed the second-fewest home runs in baseball last season, but Keller's home-run rate was almost identical at home and on the road, which is a mark in his favor. Keller could finally see something close to a full season of work in the majors, but the low-end strikeout total and struggles to limit baserunners render him a streamer at best.
A Rule 5 pick last winter, Keller spent the first couple months in the Royals' bullpen before transitioning to a starting role. He was one of Kansas City's most effective arms down the stretch, posting a 2.25 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over his final eight starts (52 innings), bringing his season ERA down to a shiny 3.08. The right-hander achieved that mark despite a middling 6.2 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 -- his 7.9 K-BB% ranked 85th among 88 pitchers with 140 innings. What he lacked in terms of dominance he made up for with groundballs (54.4%), and in turn limiting homers (0.45 HR/9). While he does not have elite velocity, Keller's fastball graded out as one of the best among regular starters thanks to the pitch's movement. His slider was also above average according to FanGraphs' Pitch Values. If he could create a bigger velocity gap between his fastball and changeup, Keller could be something, but until then he'll be a risky, low-K arm on a bad team.
More Fantasy News
Fans six in loss
PKansas City Royals
May 7, 2021
Keller (2-4) allowed three runs on five hits and a walk over six innings Friday, striking out six and taking a loss against the White Sox.
ANALYSIS
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Melts down in third inning
PKansas City Royals
May 2, 2021
Keller (2-3) was tagged with the loss Sunday against the Twins after giving up seven runs (two earned) on six hits and a walk while fanning three across 4.1 innings.
ANALYSIS
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Responds with solid outing
PKansas City Royals
April 26, 2021
Keller (2-2) secured the win after allowing two runs on eight hits and two walks while striking out four across six innings Monday against the Tigers.
ANALYSIS
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Can't escape second inning
PKansas City Royals
April 20, 2021
Keller (1-2) was charged with the loss against Tampa Bay on Tuesday, pitching 1.2 innings and allowing five runs on three hits and three walks while striking out one.
ANALYSIS
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Solid in first win
PKansas City Royals
April 14, 2021
Keller (1-1) earned the win Wednesday versus the Angels. He allowed one run on four hits and a walk and struck out five over 5.2 innings.
ANALYSIS
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