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Casey Mize

Casey Mize

28-Year-Old PitcherSP
Detroit Tigers
2025 Stats
W-L
9-3
ERA
3.15
WHIP
1.22
K
77
SV
0
Rest-of-Season Projections
W-L
ERA
WHIP
K
SV
Unlock Our Projections
2025 Fantasy Outlook
Mize has yet to fully live up to his potential as the first pick of the 2018 draft, and injuries have played a big role in slowing him down. The righty missed all of the 2023 campaign due to Tommy John surgery and again spent a chunk of the season on the injured list in 2024. This time around it was a hamstring strain that cost Mize about two months and limited him to 102.1 innings overall. That's actually the second-highest mark of Mize's career, behind the 150.1 innings he logged back in 2021. The 27-year-old has shown flashes of being a strong MLB starter, though he's yet to maintain it over long stretches of time, and he has a middling 4.36 ERA and 1.30 WHIP for his career, along with an uninspiring 6.99 K/9. The Tigers undoubtedly want to see Mize take the next step forward as a staff anchor alongside ace lefty Tarik Skubal, so the former should once again have a rotation spot heading into 2025. However, at some point Mize needs to turn his upside into actual production, and he's hard to trust in fantasy until that happens. Read Past Outlooks
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RANKS
Rest of Season
#Subscriber-Only
Dynasty
From Preseason
#389
ADP
League Majors
Bats R
Throws R
40 Man Yes
Height 6'3"
Weight 220
DOB 5/1/1997
Born Springville, AL
College Auburn
Drafted 1st Rd 2018 DET
Signed a one-year, $2.34 million contract with the Tigers in January of 2025.
Bad third sinks outing
PDetroit Tigers
July 12, 2025
Mize (9-3) took the loss after throwing three innings, allowing six runs and one walk while striking out four, during Saturday's 15-7 loss to the Mariners.
Analysis
In his last start before the All-Star break, Mize had a rare rough outing, lasting a season-low three innings and giving up a season-high six runs. It snaps a streak of nine straight starts allowing three runs or fewer for the right-hander. The 28-year-old will still enter the All-Star break with great numbers, posting a 3.15 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 77 strikeouts in 88.2 innings.
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Pitching Stats
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2025 MLB Game Log
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
81
Last 10 Games
79
Last 5 Games
71
How many pitches does Casey Mize generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Casey Mize generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2023
 
 
-15%
BAA vs LHP
2025
 
 
-19%
BAA vs LHP
2024
 
 
-10%
BAA vs LHP
2023
No Stats
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2023vs Left .252 425 94 28 98 17 4 9
Since 2023vs Right .295 396 61 23 109 16 1 14
2025vs Left .227 199 49 12 42 8 1 4
2025vs Right .280 170 28 10 44 5 0 8
2024vs Left .275 226 45 16 56 9 3 5
2024vs Right .305 226 33 13 65 11 1 6
2023vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits→ View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2023
 
 
-1%
ERA at Home
2025
 
 
-5%
ERA on Road
2024
 
 
-11%
ERA at Home
2023
No Stats
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2023Home 3.84 1.22 96.0 5 4 0 7.4 1.7 1.0
Since 2023Away 3.88 1.48 95.0 6 5 0 7.2 3.1 1.1
2025Home 3.23 1.10 39.0 5 1 0 7.6 1.6 1.2
2025Away 3.08 1.31 49.2 4 2 0 8.0 2.7 1.3
2024Home 4.26 1.30 57.0 0 3 0 7.3 1.7 0.9
2024Away 4.76 1.68 45.1 2 3 0 6.4 3.6 1.0
2023Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits→ View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Casey Mize compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
3.50
 
K/9
7.8
 
BB/9
2.2
 
HR/9
1.2
 
Fastball
94.6 mph
 
ERA
3.15
 
WHIP
1.22
 
BABIP
.300
 
GB/FB
1.12
 
Left On Base
82.2%
 
Exit Velocity
83.5 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
5.6%
 
Spin Rate
1986 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
25.0%
 
Swinging Strike
10.7%
 
Prospect Rankings History
View Complete Casey Mize Prospect Ranking History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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View Casey Mize vs. Batter Stats
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Tigers Depth Chart
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Casey Mize See More
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
When healthy, Mize has looked like a solid MLB pitcher. However, an elbow injury cut his 2022 campaign short after only two starts, and then he missed all of 2023 due to Tommy John surgery. Back in 2021, Mize posted a 3.71 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 118 strikeouts across 150.1 innings in his first full season as starter for Detroit. The 26-year-old should have a rotation spot locked up heading into 2024, though the Tigers will undoubtedly limit his workload, and it's fair to expect some rust. Mize was drafted first overall back in 2018, so the talent is certainly there, and fantasy managers will be keeping a watchful eye on how he looks early in the season. However, the best bet for now is to temper expectations and probably not count on Mize for consistent production right away. He's still only made 39 starts at the MLB level, so even if he wasn't returning from a major surgery, the young righty would probably be a volatile option anyways.
After a promising 2021 campaign, Mize seemed primed for big things in 2022, but he only made two starts before getting shut down due to an elbow injury. He underwent Tommy John surgery in June and now seems likely to miss most if not all of 2023. It's a big blow for the Tigers, who drafted Mize first overall in 2018. His MLB debut season in 2020 wasn't great, as he posted 6.99 ERA and 1.48 WHIP across 28.1 innings. However, given a longer look in 2021, Mize pitched much better. He tallied a 3.71 ERA and 1.14 WHIP across 150.1 innings, though his 7.06 K/9 and 4.71 FIP suggested he wasn't overly dominant. Still, it was a good campaign overall, and given Mize's prospect pedigree, it's fair to think that he has another level yet to reach. That will just have to wait until 2024 and beyond, so fantasy managers can ignore Mize in standard leagues, though he still has plenty of upside in keeper and dynasty formats.
After a disappointing 2020, albeit only 28.1 innings, Mize rebounded to exhibit why the Tigers used the first overall pick in 2018 to secure his services. OK, he wasn't dominant, but he teased his potential and he's embarking on just his age-25 season. Detroit did a good job managing Mize's workload, giving him extra rest down the stretch. After compiling 150.1 frames last season, the kid gloves should be off. Mize needs to miss more bats as a 19.3 K% won't get it done, at least not if he's going to be a front-of-the-rotation guy. He throws five pitches with only his four-season fastball and slider topping a 10% swinging strike rate, and just barely at that. Five pitches are a lot to work with, so it's too early to give up on more whiffs. Maybe Mize's future is a mid-rotation innings eater. The cost to find out is reasonable and there should be opportunities to stream in a weak division.
Mize's rookie season was a disaster from a results standpoint, but at least he is healthy and his stuff is intact. If he were in a different organization, say Cleveland, he would be advised to lean on his filthy trio of offspeed pitches while cutting his fourseamer and sinker usage from a combined 52 percent to around 40 percent. Whether Mize and the Tigers will go that route remains to be seen, but he currently has the pitches to have sustained success, he just needs to optimize his pitch usage. He also struggled to throw his fastball for strikes, which led to a 9.8 BB% -- almost double the 5.6 BB% he logged in 2019 at Double-A. Improving his fastball command would help greatly if Mize is to have a post-hype breakout in his second season. We should never expect pitching prospects to shove as rookies, yet recency bias still tends to seep in when one understandably pitches like a rookie.
During Mize's final year at Auburn, he had a 2.25 ERA in his first 84 innings and a 7.01 ERA in his final 30 innings. In his first full year in pro ball, he had a 0.92 ERA in his first 78 innings and a 6.61 ERA in his final 31.1 innings. The first overall pick in 2018 has a very deep arsenal -- he added another breaking ball last year -- and his plus command allows him to be very efficient with his pitches. However, we're waiting for the 22-year-old righty to take the final step in his development and show that he can handle a MLB starter's workload. He missed a month in the middle of the year with a shoulder strain and was ominously shut down 16 days prior to the end of Double-A Erie's season. We know Mize can dominate minor-league hitters over the first few months of a season. His true test in 2020 will be pitching well over the final three months, and that test should come in the big-league rotation.
There was not much drama at 1-1 in 2018, as Mize had been rumored there for months and was indeed selected by Detroit, garnering a class-high $7.5 million bonus. A 6-foot-3 righty with a workhorse 220-pound frame, Mize has a deep, complex arsenal. He sits at 94-95 mph with his fastball, touching 96 in pro ball and 97 in college. His 88-mph splitter essentially works as his changeup, and is seen as his best pitch, grading anywhere from plus to double-plus, depending on when it was seen. He also throws a mid-80s cutter and a low-80s slider -- both of which will flash plus. Mize is known as a strike thrower with the potential for plus command, giving him true frontline upside. He battled arm issues in 2017 but stayed healthy in 2018 and was shut down at High-A in mid-August after reaching his innings limit. The Tigers will assign him to either High-A or Double-A. If he stays healthy he should be the first starting pitcher from his class to reach the majors.
More Fantasy News
Shuts down CLE for ninth win
PDetroit Tigers
July 5, 2025
Mize (9-2) struck out four and allowed four hits and two walks over seven shutout innings to earn the win Saturday against the Guardians.
Analysis
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Cruises to eighth win
PDetroit Tigers
June 28, 2025
Mize (8-2) picked up the win in Saturday's 10-5 victory over the Twins, giving up two runs on five hits and a walk over 6.2 innings. He struck out five.
Analysis
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Cleared to start Saturday
PDetroit Tigers
June 26, 2025
Mize (leg) is listed as the Tigers' starting pitcher for Saturday's game against the Twins, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
Analysis
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Dealing with cramping
PDetroit Tigers
Leg
June 22, 2025
Manager A.J. Hinch said Mize was removed Sunday's 9-3 win over the Rays due to right leg cramping, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Analysis
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Departs with apparent injury
PDetroit Tigers
Leg
June 22, 2025
Mize was removed from Sunday's game against the Rays due to an apparent right leg injury, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
Analysis
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Candidate to be non-tendered
PDetroit Tigers
November 22, 2024
Mize could be non-tendered by the Tigers before Friday's roster deadline, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
Analysis
The right-hander is entering his penultimate year of arbitration eligibility and is estimated to make $2 million in 2025, per Spotrac.com. Detroit already declined Mize's $3.1 club option, and it's unclear if the potential salary difference will be enough for the organization to justify tendering him a contract. He made 22 appearances during the 2024 regular season and had a 4.49 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 78:29 K:BB over 102.1 innings.
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