Casey Mize
Casey Mize
24-Year-Old PitcherSP
Detroit Tigers
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Mize's rookie season was a disaster from a results standpoint, but at least he is healthy and his stuff is intact. If he were in a different organization, say Cleveland, he would be advised to lean on his filthy trio of offspeed pitches while cutting his fourseamer and sinker usage from a combined 52 percent to around 40 percent. Whether Mize and the Tigers will go that route remains to be seen, but he currently has the pitches to have sustained success, he just needs to optimize his pitch usage. He also struggled to throw his fastball for strikes, which led to a 9.8 BB% -- almost double the 5.6 BB% he logged in 2019 at Double-A. Improving his fastball command would help greatly if Mize is to have a post-hype breakout in his second season. We should never expect pitching prospects to shove as rookies, yet recency bias still tends to seep in when one understandably pitches like a rookie. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#420
ADP
$Signed a one-year contract with the Tigers in August of 2020.
Pitches well in second win
PDetroit Tigers
May 12, 2021
Mize (2-3) allowed two runs on three hits across six innings to earn the win Wednesday against Kansas City. He walked two and struck out four.
ANALYSIS
The Tigers are just 12-24, but Mize has been holding his own lately. The 24-year-old has now logged three straight quality starts, though this was the first time he got a win for his efforts during the stretch. Mize has used the good run to lower his season ERA to 4.19 through seven starts, which is a nice sign of progress after he posted a 6.99 ERA across the same number of outings in his 2020 rookie campaign. He'll look to keep posting strong results his next time out Monday against the Mariners.
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Pitching Stats
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2021
2020
2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
90
Last 10 Games
90
Last 5 Games
92
How many pitches does Casey Mize generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Casey Mize generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-26%
BAA vs RHP
2021
 
 
-19%
BAA vs RHP
2020
 
 
-33%
BAA vs RHP
2019
No Stats
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2019vs Left .281 144 23 17 34 9 0 8
Since 2019vs Right .207 153 30 12 28 2 1 4
2021vs Left .262 72 11 8 16 4 0 3
2021vs Right .213 92 16 8 17 2 1 2
2020vs Left .300 72 12 9 18 5 0 5
2020vs Right .200 61 14 4 11 0 0 2
2019vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2019vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-21%
ERA on Road
2021
 
 
-39%
ERA on Road
2020
 
 
-5%
ERA on Road
2019
No Stats
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2019Home 6.20 1.62 24.2 1 3 0 5.8 5.1 2.2
Since 2019Away 4.89 1.20 42.1 1 3 0 7.9 3.2 1.3
2021Home 5.52 1.50 14.2 1 1 0 5.5 4.3 1.2
2021Away 3.38 1.13 24.0 1 2 0 6.8 3.4 1.1
2020Home 7.20 1.80 10.0 0 2 0 6.3 6.3 3.6
2020Away 6.87 1.31 18.1 0 1 0 9.3 2.9 1.5
2019Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2019Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Casey Mize compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
1.69
 
K/9
6.3
 
BB/9
3.7
 
HR/9
1.2
 
Fastball
94.2 mph
 
ERA
4.19
 
WHIP
1.27
 
BABIP
.254
 
GB/FB
2.03
 
Left On Base
73.8%
 
Exit Velocity
81.0 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.6%
 
Spin Rate
2037 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
21.2%
 
Swinging Strike
8.7%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Casey Mize
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
During Mize's final year at Auburn, he had a 2.25 ERA in his first 84 innings and a 7.01 ERA in his final 30 innings. In his first full year in pro ball, he had a 0.92 ERA in his first 78 innings and a 6.61 ERA in his final 31.1 innings. The first overall pick in 2018 has a very deep arsenal -- he added another breaking ball last year -- and his plus command allows him to be very efficient with his pitches. However, we're waiting for the 22-year-old righty to take the final step in his development and show that he can handle a MLB starter's workload. He missed a month in the middle of the year with a shoulder strain and was ominously shut down 16 days prior to the end of Double-A Erie's season. We know Mize can dominate minor-league hitters over the first few months of a season. His true test in 2020 will be pitching well over the final three months, and that test should come in the big-league rotation.
There was not much drama at 1-1 in 2018, as Mize had been rumored there for months and was indeed selected by Detroit, garnering a class-high $7.5 million bonus. A 6-foot-3 righty with a workhorse 220-pound frame, Mize has a deep, complex arsenal. He sits at 94-95 mph with his fastball, touching 96 in pro ball and 97 in college. His 88-mph splitter essentially works as his changeup, and is seen as his best pitch, grading anywhere from plus to double-plus, depending on when it was seen. He also throws a mid-80s cutter and a low-80s slider -- both of which will flash plus. Mize is known as a strike thrower with the potential for plus command, giving him true frontline upside. He battled arm issues in 2017 but stayed healthy in 2018 and was shut down at High-A in mid-August after reaching his innings limit. The Tigers will assign him to either High-A or Double-A. If he stays healthy he should be the first starting pitcher from his class to reach the majors.
More Fantasy News
Holds own against BoSox
PDetroit Tigers
May 6, 2021
Mize didn't factor into the decision in Wednesday's 6-5 win over Boston in 10 innings after limiting the Red Sox to one run on three hits and four walks over six frames. He struck out three in the 95-pitch outing.
ANALYSIS
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Strong outing in loss
PDetroit Tigers
April 29, 2021
Mize (1-3) was charged with the loss Thursday against the White Sox after allowing three runs on four hits and three walks while striking out six batters across six innings.
ANALYSIS
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Wednesday's game postponed
PDetroit Tigers
April 28, 2021
Mize won't pitch Wednesday against the White Sox since the game was postponed due to inclement weather.
ANALYSIS
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Shelled for six runs
PDetroit Tigers
April 23, 2021
Mize (1-2) allowed six runs on seven hits and three walks with one strikeout in 4.2 innings in a loss to the Royals on Friday.
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Showing increased velocity early
PDetroit Tigers
April 19, 2021
Mize is averaging 95.2 mph with his fastball so far this season and has added more velocity than any pitcher in the league to date, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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