Carl Pavano
Carl Pavano
43-Year-Old PitcherRP
 Free Agent  
Free Agent
2019 Fantasy Outlook
There was no outlook written for Carl Pavano in 2019. Check out the latest news below for more on his current fantasy value.
$Agreed to a two-year, $16.5 million contract with the Twins in January of 2011.
Carl Pavano: Announces Retirement
PFree Agent  
February 26, 2014
Pavano announced his retirement Wednesday, Jeff Todd of MLB Trade Rumors reports.
ANALYSIS
Pavano had his 2012 season cut short with a shoulder injury and missed all last season after rupturing his spleen while shoveling his driveway. After attempting a comeback this season, he will hang up the cleats after a 14-year MLB career. He played in 302 games with the Expos, Marlins, Yankees, Indians, and Twins over his career, making the All-Star team in 2004 when he went 18-8 with Florida.
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Pavano began last season in Minnesota's starting rotation, but made just 11 starts before landing on the DL with a shoulder injury that ended his season. He was eventually diagnosed with a bruise on his humerus bone that required rest and not surgery. He was given a clean bill of health in December and will try to win a spot in a starting rotation next spring. When healthy, Pavano has good control and generates groundballs, but his strikeout rate plummeted the past few seasons in Minnesota. He had rebuilt his career as an innings eater with the Twins and shed some of his injury-prone label until last year. Since he'll turn 37 this season and given his injury history and lack of strikeouts, he does not appear to be a good bounce-back candidate.
Pavano's numbers declined last season (his wins fell to nine from 17 in 2010; and his ERA jumped to 4.30 from 3.75), but he was largely the same pitcher. Pavano has outstanding control (sixth-lowest walk rate among starters in baseball) and generates groundballs (50.6 percent). He was also durable despite his injury-plagued past by going six or more innings in 25 of 32 starts and tying a career high in innings pitched. The difference was that the defense behind him was terrible (the Twins were last in team defensive efficiency) and the bullpen struggled. If the Twins can put better fielders behind him and the bullpen improves, Pavano could bounce back. Still, his upside is limited given his anemic strikeout rate (4.14 K/9IP) that was the second worst among all starters. He'll enter the season as Minnesota's No. 2 or No. 3 starter.
Pavano's career appeared almost over in 2008 as he came back from Tommy John surgery and the weight of his failures with the Yankees after signing a large contract. But Pavano revived his career in 2009 with the Indians and improved when traded later that summer to the Twins. He continued that revival in 2010 with his best season since 2004. Pavano won 17 games last season with outstanding control (third-lowest walk rate among starters in baseball) and by getting groundballs (51.2 percent of batted balls). He was also durable despite his injury-plagued past by going six or more innings in 27 of 32 starts and nearly matching his career high in innings pitched. Still, there are some signs he didn't pitch as well as his ERA or win total indicated as he had an anemic 4.8 K/9IP and also had a low .286 BABIP. He will enter 2011 as the No. 2 starter in Minnesota's rotation, but given worrying signs in his peripheral numbers, his age (35 this season) and checkered injury history, be wary of paying for his 2010 stats.
Pavano revived his career last season and enters 2010 as one of the top three starters for Minnesota. Pavano's four-year, $39.95 million contract with the Yankees may have been one of the worst contracts of the decade as he struggled with injuries and the media spotlight. Once free of the Bronx, he won a job in Cleveland's rotation and pitched well before being traded to the Twins in August. He helped the Twins win a playoff spot by stabilizing the rotation and had a strong outing in his one playoff start (two earned runs in seven innings). While Pavano's 5.10 ERA wasn't overly impressive, he had good secondary numbers with strong control (147:39 K:BB ratio) and slightly above average strikeout (6.6 K/9IP) and groundball rates. He looks like an innings-eater/league average starter that could stabilize the young Minnesota rotation. However, he comes with considerable injury risk since last season was the first time he pitched more than 100 innings since 2004 amid hip, elbow (including Tommy John surgery), back and shoulder problems.
Pavano's four-year, $39.95 million deal with the Yankees finally came to an end after the 2008 season. Calling him a complete bust might be a friendly approach given his combination of injuries to pure ineffectiveness. He'll get a chance to start in Cleveland after signing a one-year deal with the Tribe in January, but the upside for fantasy owners is extremely limited given his shaky recent history and that he's never been one to miss many bats. Don't expect much.
Hailed as the greatest contractual disaster in team history, the Yankees still owe Pavano $11 million for 2008 or a $1.95 million buyout if they release him. The option at press time was doing the latter and re-signing Pavano to a minor-league deal to at least have his arm at the team's disposal if he returns from Tommy John surgery this season. Either way, you know by now to avoid Pavano at the draft table.
Pavano suffered cracked ribs last August in an unreported automobile accident, after he'd been rehabilitating a back and buttocks injury, which was preceeded by an elbow injury. The good news is an orthopedic specialist believes there is some science behind his injury problems. Pavano apparently suffers from a hip dysfunction, which caused one leg to become longer than the other, and resulted in nagging back problems. The disappointing righty has been working extensively to get ready for the 2007 season, but he'll have to earn a role with the Yankees this spring if he isn't moved prior to the start of camp.
Pavano was a complete bust after signing a big free agent contract with the Yankees. He was mediocre for much of the first half before missing the second half with a shoulder problem that seemed to get worse as time went on. Still, he's not as bad as he showed last year, and in the Yankees rotation is a major rebound candidate. He won't be the pitcher he was in Florida in 2004, though.
Pavano signed a $40 million contract with the Yankees in the offseason - not bad for a guy who's only had two good years in his career. To be fair, they've been the last two years and Pavano shows every sign of having overcome his injury problems and found his groove. It'll be interesting to see how he handles the pressure in Yankee Stadium.
Pavano had far and away the best year of his career, setting new highs in innings, strikeouts and wins. If he's put his injury woes behind him, he should be a dependable middle-of-the-rotation starter. Until he does it again, though, assume that's a big 'if'.
Pavano actually set a career high in innings in 2002 with 136, which just about says it all for him. He'll never live down the fact that he was traded for Pedro, but right now he's still having trouble just salvaging a decent career. He's the kind-of-talented but combustible pitcher you never want to lose track of entirely, but you want to see a month of solid starts from before you consider a free-agent bid.
More Fantasy News
Carl Pavano: Will Throw Off Mound Soon
PFree Agent  
Abdomen
February 11, 2014
Pavano (abdomen) is scheduled to throw off a mound in the coming weeks, MLB Daily Dish reports.
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PFree Agent  
Abdomen
December 12, 2013
Pavano, who missed last season after rupturing his spleen while shoveling snow on his driveway, plans to try to pitch in 2014, the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports.
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PFree Agent  
Abdomen
May 30, 2013
Pavano (abdomen) has tabled the idea of pitching this season and is aiming for a return to the majors in 2014, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports.
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PFree Agent  
Abdomen
January 28, 2013
Pavano's spleen was removed during surgery after rupturing the organ while shoveling snow on his driveway at his Vermont home, the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports.
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PFree Agent  
Abdomen
January 25, 2013
Pavano will be sidelined six to eight weeks after rupturing his spleen while shoveling snow on his driveway at his Vermont home, FoxSports.com reports.
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