Adrian Beltre
Adrian Beltre
39-Year-Old Third Baseman3B
Texas Rangers
2018 Fantasy Outlook
Is Beltre baseball's Benjamin Button? Skills wise, he might be, but injuries impacted him more than ever in 2017, as a calf strain put him on the DL coming out of spring training and cost him nearly two months to start the season. In addition to collecting his 3,000th career hit in July, Beltre improved his slash line across the board as a 38-year-old last season, but he missed additional time due to a hamstring strain at the end of August, and the Rangers backed off his workload down the stretch once the team fell out of wild-card contention. Between age 33-37, Beltre averaged an astonishing 152 games played per season from 2012-2016, a number that was simply unsustainable as he moved closer to age 40. Nevertheless, the per-game output remains excellent, as he was on pace for 30 homers and 123 RBI while maintaining his typically strong plate discipline. Other than health, there is nothing in his profile to suggest that he can't continue to produce at a well above-average clip for another season. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a two-year, $36 million contract extension with the Rangers in April of 2016. Contract runs through 2018.
Will be rested over final week
3BTexas Rangers
September 23, 2018
Beltre will not be in the lineup every day over the final week of the season, T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Beltre will start Sunday, the Rangers' home finale and possibly his final game in front of the fans in Arlington, then have his playing time managed over the final week on the road in Anaheim and Seattle. This is the time of year when managers like to give veterans a chance to reach milestones, but Beltre already achieved his Friday. The 39-year-old Beltre hit the 476th home run of his career, moving him past Stan Musial and Willie Stargell for 30th on the all-time list.
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Batting Stats
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Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2016
 
 
+10%
OPS vs LHP
2018
 
 
+16%
OPS vs RHP
2017
 
 
+30%
OPS vs LHP
2016
 
 
+19%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2016vs Left .913 362 49 15 59 0 .314 .392 .521
Since 2016vs Right .832 1121 132 47 172 3 .289 .345 .487
2018vs Left .680 130 8 2 14 0 .252 .323 .357
2018vs Right .788 324 37 11 42 1 .281 .336 .452
2017vs Left 1.124 83 16 4 16 0 .388 .482 .642
2017vs Right .862 306 31 13 55 1 .293 .356 .505
2016vs Left 1.004 149 25 9 29 0 .331 .403 .602
2016vs Right .842 491 64 23 75 1 .291 .344 .498
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2016
 
 
+14%
OPS at Home
2018
 
 
+23%
OPS at Home
2017
 
 
+25%
OPS at Home
2016
 
 
+5%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2016Home .909 740 108 28 127 1 .321 .395 .514
Since 2016Away .796 743 73 34 104 2 .270 .319 .477
2018Home .833 232 26 7 33 1 .301 .362 .471
2018Away .680 222 19 6 23 0 .244 .302 .378
2017Home 1.025 182 28 7 37 0 .362 .440 .586
2017Away .823 207 19 10 34 1 .271 .333 .489
2016Home .900 326 54 14 57 0 .313 .393 .507
2016Away .857 314 35 18 47 1 .288 .322 .535
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Stat Review
How does Adrian Beltre compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
BB/K
0.37
 
BB Rate
7.4%
 
K Rate
20.0%
 
BABIP
.318
 
ISO
.157
 
AVG
.276
 
OBP
.335
 
SLG
.433
 
OPS
.768
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
Coming off weak power years in 2014 (19 home runs) and 2015 (18), Beltre turned in his highest home-run total since 2012 this past season (32), and he drove in his most runs (104) since 2011 -- backed up by his highest flyball rate since 2011. Keeping with his typical second-half power boost, he left the yard 20 times after the break. His batting average reached .300 for the fourth time in five years and fifth time in seven as he struck out in just 10.3 percent of his plate appearances. He's shown few signs of decline, but there is increasing risk in drafting Beltre as he enters his age-38 season. Hopefully his favorable home ballpark and strong glove will help him stave off Father Time a while longer.
Beltre failed to reach 20 homers for the second straight year and failed to hit .300 for the first time since 2011, ending a four-year stretch of MVP-level production. Beltre's season was saved over the final two months, as he hit .328/.379/.540 with 10 homers and 56 RBI in his final 60 games, which shows he's not completely done. He had surgery in the offseason to repair ligaments in his thumb — an injury he battled throughout most of the season — so there's legitimate hope for a rebound if he's healthy. While Beltre's days atop the third base rankings are a thing of the past, the plate skills are still there with serviceable power. In fact, he might actually be more profitable as a fantasy asset now that the price has been driven down significantly.
The future Hall of Famer (yeah, we said it) finally started to show a bit of decline in 2014. While he hit over .295 for a fourth consecutive season, his power numbers fell off as he failed to hit at least 25 home runs for the first time in five seasons. The drop in home runs led to a drop in runs batted in for a fourth consecutive year, and marked the first time since 2009 that the third baseman failed to drive in at least 90 runs. The time missed early in the season with a quad strain was partly to blame, but he’s also 35 and father time always wins out in the end. In Texas, he’s still going to be a strong three category player at third base, but the days of 30 homers and 100 runs driven in are likely behind him. He has been an elite fantasy third baseman for many years, but he is now downshifting into the next tier.
Beltre enjoyed another productive season, managing to play through a litany of injuries to supply 30-plus homers for the fourth straight campaign while maintaining the high average that has been a hallmark for him since he left Seattle. A poor September (.262/.322/.364) put a drag on his overall numbers, but there's no reason to think that he won't remain near the top of the third base rankings for the next year or two, as long as he can stay healthy.
Beltre was Texas' most consistent player all season, and his monster September (.337/.381/.724, 11 homers in 98 at-bats) resulted in just 19 RBI thanks to a team-wide slump apart from himself. Ever since leaving Seattle after the 2009 season, Beltre has delivered an excellent ISO each season. The only real gripe here is that he doesn't draw many walks, but with a high contact rate and the ability to hit bad pitches a long way, Beltre puts himself in a position to be an excellent run producer. He's been as consistent a player the past several years as you're likely to find, and there's no reason to think he'll slow down in 2013.
Beltre posted another excellent season, though he missed nearly 40 games with a hamstring injury. His 32 homers and 105 RBI were eclipsed only by his 2004 season on his career ledger, though he was an excellent third baseman trapped in a hitters' hell for his Seattle years. He remains an excellent option at third base given his home park and lineup, and he has a good track record of playing 150 games a year in his career, so you can expect an uptick in his counting stats as a result.
Beltre's one-year contract with the Red Sox paid off in 2010 when he posted his best numbers since the epic 48-homer 2004 season that earned him his last fat contract with Seattle. It wasn't a Fenway Park fluke either, as he had a better OPS and hit more home runs on the road. He also continued to provide outstanding defense (4th best UZR in baseball at third base). The payoff was a six-year, $96 million contract with Texas in the offseason to become the everyday third baseman for the Rangers. Beltre's numbers with Seattle were always hurt by his home ballpark, so he should be as productive as ever in Texas since he's seen no decline in his skill set.
Some still insist on labeling Beltre's five-year stay in Seattle a bust. They're still wrong. Various injuries and a left field that plays like Alaska conspired to depress Beltre's numbers and mask his value. He missed significant chunks of the last two seasons to various ailments (including a severely contused right testicle) and played most of 2007 with an undiagnosed torn thumb ligament. While Beltre's .410 home slugging percentage was better than the average right-handed batter (.394) at Safeco Field, it was still far below his .472 road slugging percentage, which ranks third among AL third basemen during his time in Seattle. And his Gold Glove work at the hot corner never took a day off. After signing with the Red Sox in January, he could be a good draft-day value as part of a potent Boston offense and in a hitter-friendly home park.
Beltre continues to be one of baseball's more underappreciated players. His 25 homers were third among AL third basemen, and had 55 XBH with Gold Glove defense, despite seemingly everything working against him, including a torn ligament in his thumb, an unlucky BABIP for most of the year and a home field that stifles right-handed power. And while lineup protection is usually overrated, Beltre got absolutely no help hitting in front of the likes of Richie Sexson and Jose Vidro -- he drew a Mariners career-high 50 walks, including 10 intentional walks, the most of his career since batting eighth for the Dodgers in 1999. His season ended mid-September when he opted for surgery on the injured thumb (and he also had shoulder surgery at that time), which he had played with since May 2007. Beltre's not expected to re-sign with Seattle when his contract is up at the season's end, and he could be traded before then. He should be healthy for spring training.
Beltre had his best year in the majors last season outside of 2004, even if conventional wisdom still shortchanges him. Beltre played a better third base than any American Leaguer other than MVP Alex Rodriguez. He led AL third basemen in doubles (41), was second in homers (26) and XBH (69) and third in SLG (.482), all the while playing in a park that is death on right-handed hitters (indeed, he slugged .538 on the road and had 19 more XBH in equal at-bats). He also led AL third basemen in stolen base percentage (87.5), finishing second with 14 steals, and won the Gold Glove for his work at the hot corner. Fantasy owners could do a lot worse.
A poor two-month opening stretch in 2006 lead most outside observers to conclude that Beltre was following his disappointing 2005 Mariners debut with an equally rancid 2006. A closer look reveals that after he came out of his early season tailspin he was one of the best-hitting third basemen in baseball. From May 29 on, Beltre hit .289 with 23 homers, 33 doubles, 75 RBI and slugged .538. Only Aramis Ramirez homered more in that span among third basemen, and Beltre's slugging percentage was fifth best in baseball. Beltre flashed his usual adroit glove at the hot corner, making him one of the better all-round third basemen—at least for four months. Conventional wisdom likely will make him undervalued in 2007 drafts, but Beltre needs to avoid another slow start to make drafting him really pay off.
Beltre's 2005 is easily filed under "Bust" after the Mariners gave him $64 million following his MVP-quality 2004. But Beltre didn't choke last year as much as he just returned to his pre-2004 levels. Before his .334, 48-HR year, Beltre averaged .261 and homered once every 29 at-bats. Last season, he hit .255 and homered once every 31.7 at-bats. If Beltre can split the difference this year from 2004 and 2005, the Mariners will be overjoyed. That would put him at about 35 homers with a .295 average. But even that might be a lot to wish for as it would be the second-best season of his career. If nothing else, Beltre should come cheap this year.
Beltre picked the right time to have a career year as he parlayed a 48-home run season into a five-year, $64 million contract with the Mariners. Even if he doesn't hit 40 HR again, he's likely to be one of the top fantasy third basemen since he'll be entering his prime at just age 26.
Another poor start doomed Beltre to another mediocre year. He rediscovered his power stroke in the second half and slugged .488, but his on-base skills have really eroded. It may be time to lower our expectations. Alternatively, it may be time for a change of venue for Beltre, who has a career OPS of .807 on the road, but only .683 in Dodger Stadium.
2002 was another disappointing season, as Beltre's plate discipline seems to be a thing of the past, although he did begin to heat up over the final couple months. Beltre's real age could still be an issue - at 23, there's plenty of time for a return to the 2000 numbers that made him the hottest 3B prospect in the NL, at 27 it's time to write it off as an anomaly.
More Fantasy News
Homers, collects five RBI
3BTexas Rangers
September 21, 2018
Beltre went 2-for-3 with a home run, five RBI and two runs in Friday's 8-3 victory over the Mariners.
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Swats solo homer
3BTexas Rangers
September 19, 2018
Beltre went 2-for-4 with a double and a solo homer in Wednesday's loss to the Rays.
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Gets day off
3BTexas Rangers
September 16, 2018
Beltre is out of the lineup Sunday against the Padres.
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Pops two homers
3BTexas Rangers
September 8, 2018
Beltre went 2-for-4 with two homers and three RBI in Saturday's loss to the A's.
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Slugs 10th homer
3BTexas Rangers
September 6, 2018
Beltre went 2-for-4 with a two-run home run in Wednesday's 9-3 loss to the Angels.
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