Adrian Gonzalez
Adrian Gonzalez
36-Year-Old First Baseman1B
 Free Agent  
Free Agent
2018 Fantasy Outlook
Gone are the days when Gonzalez could be relied upon as an upper-tier fantasy first baseman with consistent 20-plus homer, 100-plus RBI seasons. The five-time All-Star pieced together a solid 2016 campaign (111 wRC+ in 156 games) but struggled to stay healthy and produce at the plate for the Dodgers during their 104-win regular season in 2017. The 35-year-old battled back issues throughout the year and appeared in only 71 games before being shut down in September. Though his injury issues were almost certainly part of the problem, Gonzalez posted near-career-worst numbers in 2017. He saw his power numbers plummet and his .242 average was his lowest mark since his second big-league season over 10 years ago. Gonzalez's new employers, the Mets, are signalling that he could be their primary first baseman to start the year, but if his struggles continue, he'll likely cede the role to Dominic Smith sooner rather than later. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a one-year, $545,000 contract with the Mets in January of 2018. Released by the Mets in June of 2018.
Let go Sunday
1BFree Agent  
June 10, 2018
Gonzalez was released by the Mets on Sunday,
ANALYSIS
Gonzalez was cut after going 1-for-16 in his past five games. He appeared in 53 games for New York this season and put together a .241/.304/.380 batting line with six homers and 26 RBI.
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Batting Stats
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Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2016
 
 
+40%
OPS vs RHP
2018
 
 
+47%
OPS vs RHP
2017
 
 
+52%
OPS vs RHP
2016
 
 
+43%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2016vs Left .561 255 14 2 29 0 .232 .278 .283
Since 2016vs Right .785 816 84 25 117 0 .278 .341 .445
2018vs Left .477 24 3 0 7 0 .227 .250 .227
2018vs Right .701 163 12 6 19 0 .238 .307 .395
2017vs Left .453 50 1 0 6 0 .191 .240 .213
2017vs Right .690 201 13 3 24 0 .255 .299 .391
2016vs Left .602 181 10 2 16 0 .244 .293 .310
2016vs Right .859 452 59 16 74 0 .303 .372 .488
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2016
 
 
+15%
OPS on Road
2018
 
 
+50%
OPS on Road
2017
 
 
+11%
OPS at Home
2016
 
 
+16%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2016Home .679 533 40 8 56 0 .256 .319 .360
Since 2016Away .781 538 58 19 90 0 .277 .333 .449
2018Home .534 93 3 0 5 0 .207 .290 .244
2018Away .803 94 12 6 21 0 .264 .309 .494
2017Home .674 126 6 2 15 0 .263 .302 .373
2017Away .608 125 8 1 15 0 .221 .272 .336
2016Home .724 314 31 6 36 0 .268 .334 .389
2016Away .843 319 38 12 54 0 .302 .364 .479
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Stat Review
How does Adrian Gonzalez compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
BB/K
0.44
 
BB Rate
8.0%
 
K Rate
18.2%
 
BABIP
.260
 
ISO
.136
 
AVG
.237
 
OBP
.299
 
SLG
.373
 
OPS
.672
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
It's tempting to write a player off when he's well into his 30s and coming off a career-worst season at the plate, but not every player follows a predictable parabola of performance as he ages. The truth is that Gonzalez hasn't been a significant power source in five years -- his last SLG above .500 was in 2011, while his last 30-HR season was in 2010 -- but his continual placement in the middle of the Dodgers' batting order has led to some lofty RBI totals (396 RBI over the last four years). The Dodgers have Gonzalez for another two years and $43 million, so he might keep racking up RBI totals in the middle of the lineup, but his production in the other categories continues to be marginalized by the breadth and depth of the first base position, particularly in the modern era of over-the-fence baseball. The biggest threat to Gonzalez's counting stats is Cody Bellinger, a powerful first base prospect in the Dodgers' system who is charging fast.
A model of consistency, Gonzalez notched his 10th consecutive season of 156-plus games played in 2015. A lack of productivity ahead of him limited Gonzalez to 90 RBI, but at 33, the veteran first baseman shows no signs of slowing down. He hit just .238 after July 31, but some nagging injuries down the stretch are likely to blame. On the plus side, his 9.7-percent walk rate was his highest frequency since his days in Boston (2011) and he hit .294 against southpaws after struggling (.201) against them in 2014. Barring an awful spring training, there is no reason at this point to expect anything other than another solid season in 2016. It's possible that the club could give him a handful of extra days off this season, but owners should once again be able to count on .275-25-100 or close to it.
In standard, 12-team 5x5 mixed leagues this past season, Gonzalez was a top-six first baseman in terms of fantasy value. Last season, only he and Miguel Cabrera hit at least 25 home runs, at least 40 doubles, and drove in at least 100 runs. The increase in power was nice, but Gonzalez’s .276 batting average, while still 25 points above the league average, was still his worst in a full season of play. His days of double-digit walk rates and high OBPs are officially behind him, but the rest of his skills are stable and he is a very low-risk player, having only missed a handful of games over the past six seasons. He’s not a sexy pick, but stability is attractive and Gonzalez should once again be good for 155-plus games, 100 runs driven in, and 20-plus home runs. His projections are as close to set-it-and-forget-it as you can get.
The Dodgers' most consistent player, Gonzalez batted .293/.342/.461 with 22 home runs in 2013. He also reached the 100-RBI mark for the sixth time in seven seasons (99 RBI in the other campaign). In his first full season with the Dodgers, Gonzalez also improved his BB/K ratio from 0.38 in 2012 to 0.48 last season. It seem unlikely he'll return to his days of hitting 35-40 home runs, but Gonzalez rarely misses a game, and in a potent lineup, he should be a lock for another .290-20-100 season.
The Dodgers haven't had average production out of first base since the days of Eric Karros, and while they certainly have that now with Gonzalez, there are some questions as to how much power we'll see going forward. A .299/.344/.463 line is solid enough, but after averaging 34 homers from 2007-2010 in Petco Park, he's dropped off to 27 and 18 the past two seasons. His walk rate has also plummeted, as pitchers seem to be gaining confidence that he's no longer a huge threat at the plate. He'll hit in the middle of what should be a great Dodgers lineup, so the 100-RBI mark is likely to be surpassed, but we just can't count on 30-plus homers these days.
Statistically, 2011 was the best of Gonzalez's career, as he posted career-highs in hits, runs, batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. There was a sense he'd hit more homers in the move to Boston, but there's little else to complain about. He had a couple of nagging injuries, but was in the starting lineup 159 times and has missed just seven games in the past three seasons. Gonzalez is locked in as Boston's starting first baseman after signing a seven-year extension with the club early in the 2011 season.
Gonzalez once again had a great season as a member of the Padres. He stayed healthy, hit 30 homers for the fourth straight season, hit for a good average (.298), and was an on-base machine. He had better numbers on the road (.315/.402/.578) than at home (.279/.383/.438), but that's understandable considering Petco Park. In the offseason, he was finally traded to Boston. The improved park and lineup should boost his stats and finally show the world what he's capable of achieving. Few first basemen will have as much upside as Gonzalez heading into 2011.
Should Gonzalez be traded, he would immediately become the second-best first baseman in fantasy. On the road last year, he hit .306/.402/.643, and he's had big home/road splits due to playing in Petco Park for four years running. In Fenway Park, in a lineup where he bats with runners on a lot, he'd have production numbers like Ryan Howard. Until then, he'll just have to be a great player whose fantasy value is less than it should be.
Gonzalez, who has only missed one game over the past two seasons combined is as productive as he is reliable, setting a career high in homers and RBI during the 2008 campaign. But beware, his HR/FB rate was extremely lofty and is likely to regress, making it difficult for him to match his 2008 total of 36 bombs. That said, he is now in the class of sluggers that can be counted on for 30 homers and 100 RBI. His only fault is a high strikeout rate, which tempers his batting average a bit, so he will need a little good fortune to hit better than .280.
Gonzalez reached some nice round numbers in 2007: 30 homers and 100 RBI. He also hit .282, a departure from his .304 mark in 2006 but still a strong offensive season in one of the majors' most pitcher-friendly home ballparks. Gonzalez increased his doubles total from 38 to 46 in 2007 and is a well-balanced young hitter who can drive the ball to all fields. Think of Gonzalez like a sea-level Todd Helton, circa 2003. At 25 years old, he should be entering his prime as San Diego's starting first baseman.
Gonzalez cemented his status as a cornerstone of the Padres' future plans with a huge 2006 season, his first full major league campaign. He's a good all-around hitter who will split the gaps and also hit the ball over the fence. Expect Gonzalez to anchor the middle of the Padres' lineup for years to come.
The power started to come in 2005, which was Gonzalez's only real weakness before. He was blocked in Texas by Mark Teixeira and Phil Nevin, so he could now win a starting job at first base with the Padres after coming over in the Adam Eaton trade. While playing in a pitcher's park won't help, he could surprise if he wins regular playing time.
Gonzalez is still not showing a great deal of power, but he's still young for his level. Mark Teixeira is considered the long-term solution at first base in Texas now, so Gonzalez may be dangled as trade bait.
Gonzalez tanked during his first exposure to Triple-A, and then was dealt to Texas in the Ugie Urbina swap. He didn't hit particularly well at Double-A following the trade either, but he flashed decent power and a good eye during the Arizona Fall League. A strong spring could land him with a job in Arlington, especially since Rafael Palmeiro left for Baltimore.
Jason Stokes got all the ink in 2002, but all Gonzalez did was hit .266/.344/.437 with 96 RBI as the youngest everyday player in the Double-A Eastern League. That's two levels higher than Stokes, and Gonzalez is three and a half months younger. There's nobody in the pipeline between Gonzalez and Derrek Lee, so the Marlins will probably let him try Triple-A in 2003 and see how he does. If he looks ready, and if Florida is out of the playoff hunt and decides it needs to cut payroll again, he could be the starting 1B by the end of the year.
More Fantasy News
Records base knock
1BNew York Mets  
June 1, 2018
Gonzalez went 1-for-4 with two RBI during Friday's loss to the Cubs.
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Situated on bench Thursday
1BNew York Mets  
May 31, 2018
Gonzalez is not in the lineup for Thursday's game against the Cubs.
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Drives in two Wednesday
1BNew York Mets  
May 31, 2018
Gonzalez went 2-for-4 with a double and two RBI in Wednesday's win over the Braves.
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Pops sixth homer Tuesday
1BNew York Mets  
May 30, 2018
Gonzalez went 1-for-4 with a solo home run in Tuesday's loss to the Braves.
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Out of Monday's lineup
1BNew York Mets  
May 28, 2018
Gonzalez is out of Monday's lineup against the Braves, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
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