Adam Wainwright
Adam Wainwright
37-Year-Old PitcherSP
St. Louis Cardinals
2018 Fantasy Outlook
Wainwright's fantasy value continued to plummet in 2017, as the 36-year-old hurler posted career-worst marks in ERA (5.11) and WHIP (1.50) for a second consecutive season. He hasn't been the same since missing the majority of the 2015 season with a torn Achilles; in five seasons preceding the injury Wainwright held a 2.83 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, but he's seen those numbers balloon to 4.81 and 1.44, respectively, in his two post-injury campaigns. While the right-hander hasn't seen any significant dip in velocity, he's missing more spots than normal, resulting in career-worst walk and home-run rates (3.3 BB/9 and 1.0 HR/9). He was also limited to just 123.1 innings due to back and elbow injuries, with an elbow scope ending his season in September. While he's expected to be healthy and back in the starting rotation next spring, his days as a viable fantasy option could be over. Read Past Outlooks
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$Wainwright agreed to a five-year, $97.5 million extension with the Cardinals in March of 2013.
Puts in throwback performance
PSt. Louis Cardinals
September 16, 2018
Wainwright (2-3) got the win against the Dodgers on Sunday, allowing just two hits over six shutout innings, striking out nine and walking three in the Cardinals' 5-0 victory.
ANALYSIS
It was a vintage showing from the veteran, who bounced back nicely after yielding four earned over five innings in first start back from the disabled list Monday. He's only thrown 29 innings this season, posting a 3.72 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP over that time. He's scheduled to take the mound next against the Giants on the road on Saturday.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-6%
BAA vs RHP
2018
 
 
-10%
BAA vs LHP
2017
 
 
-2%
BAA vs RHP
2016
 
 
-11%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2016vs Left .294 717 133 69 188 36 3 22
Since 2016vs Right .275 808 151 52 200 45 5 18
2018vs Left .241 71 18 14 13 2 0 2
2018vs Right .268 61 9 3 15 4 0 2
2017vs Left .289 268 45 24 70 13 1 9
2017vs Right .282 278 51 21 70 14 3 5
2016vs Left .306 378 70 31 105 21 2 11
2016vs Right .272 469 91 28 115 27 2 11
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-49%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-41%
ERA on Road
2017
 
 
-58%
ERA at Home
2016
 
 
-48%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2016Home 3.27 1.29 189.0 16 7 0 7.5 2.8 0.6
Since 2016Away 6.43 1.63 160.0 11 10 0 7.0 3.5 1.6
2018Home 4.15 1.29 21.2 1 2 0 7.9 2.9 1.7
2018Away 2.45 2.32 7.1 1 1 0 9.8 12.3 0.0
2017Home 3.08 1.29 64.1 8 1 0 7.4 3.2 0.6
2017Away 7.32 1.73 59.0 4 4 0 6.6 3.4 1.5
2016Home 3.20 1.30 104.0 7 4 0 7.4 2.5 0.3
2016Away 6.18 1.52 94.2 6 5 0 7.1 2.9 1.7
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Stat Review
How does Adam Wainwright compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
K/BB
1.59
 
K/9
8.4
 
BB/9
5.3
 
HR/9
1.2
 
Fastball
89.0 mph
 
ERA
3.72
 
WHIP
1.55
 
BABIP
.305
 
GB/FB
1.76
 
Strand %
80.5%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
For the first time in his career as a starter, Wainwright turned in an ERA above 4.00 and posted a bloated 1.40 WHIP. However, he'd missed almost all of 2015 courtesy of a torn Achilles and it's not as though 2016 was a complete failure. His ERA was virtually the same between the first and second half of the year (4.49 versus 4.79) and his BB/9 was 2.7, his highest since 2007. Lefties and righties alike hit him with ease, combining for a career-high .287 batting average against and resulting in a 3.99 FIP -- his highest in any qualifying season. His hard-hit rate was a career high while his groundball rate was a career low. Given his reputation as an ace that stems from consistent dominance in recent years, particularly the 2010-14 stretch that saw him average a 2.83 FIP and 1.03 WHIP, Wainwright figures to be a fairly popular rebound candidate in 2017, but last season appears to be his new floor.
Wainwright missed most of the 2015 season after tearing his left Achilles in his fourth start of the season. He recovered somewhat quickly to throw three additional innings in relief over the final week of the season while also throwing another solid 5.1 innings during the Cardinals playoff series against Chicago. Before the injury Wainwright looked to be off to another great season allowing just four earned runs in 25 innings while striking out 18. His relatively quick recovery and solid relief performances to close the season should provide owners with some optimism heading into 2016. He will be 34 and coming off a season where he threw just 28 innings but he could provide excellent value where he's likely to be drafted and could end up being one of the better bargains of 2016 as he'll likely be the staff ace for the Cardinals unless they bring in a big-name via free agency.
Wainwright showed no signs of slowing down in his age-32 season, going 20-9 and posting career-best marks in ERA (2.38) and WHIP (1.03), while striking out 179 batters in 227 innings. Wainwright also threw five complete games, three of them shutouts (also a career high), on his way to finishing third in the Cy Young vote, marking his fourth top-three finish for the award. Owners shouldn't be overly concerned with Wainwright's age (33) heading into 2015, as he's only thrown 2,334.2 professional innings, which he started as an 18-year-old, compare that with Felix Hernandez (almost five years younger than Wainwright) who's thrown 2,367 innings since going pro at age 17. While age certainly factors in, Wainwright hasn't had the workload that most aces his age have had thus far in his career and he's a good bet to continue his dominant ways for at least the next year or two. Keep an eye on his health leading into Opening Day, as Wainwright had surgery to trim cartilage from his elbow at the end of last season, in addition to an abdominal strain that slowed him during the early weeks of spring training.
Wainwright was dominant again in 2013 as the ace on the Cardinals' staff, logging 241.2 innings for the National League champs and striking out 219 while throwing five complete games. Wainwright has five pitches, four of which he uses regularly and he gets his strikeouts by using those pitches well and hitting his spots, meaning he should continue to pitch well with age. His numbers have been incredibly consistent the past several seasons and there's no reason to think he won't be one of the games best pitchers again in 2014. As long as he's healthy, Wainwright should be a solid anchor on any fantasy staff.
Wainwright got off to a slow start coming back from his 2011 Tommy John surgery, but after the All-Star break he was pitching like the Wainwright of old. His second-half stats - 3.28 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 86:23 K:BB in 96 innings - should give you some indication of what to expect in 2013 now that he's back to full health. A return to the 20-win, 200-strikeout mountain is possible. He may have a couple more years as ace of the staff before Shelby Miller takes over.
A February Tommy John surgery robbed Wainwright of the entire 2011 season, but all signs in his recovery have been good and there were even some rumblings that he'd be available to pitch in the postseason. Fortunately, for the Cardinals and Wainwright, he wasn't needed. He's been a fantastic pitcher since he burst on the scene in 2006, and there's little doubt he'll eventually get back to where he once was, but he'll be a bit rusty early on. Don't pay for his 2009-2010 numbers.
Elbow stiffness late in the season was just about the only blip on Wainwright's excellent 2010 campaign. He was in the top five in the NL in wins, ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, innings pitched and quality starts. Expect more of the same from the 29-year-old in 2011: he's the ace of the staff, and his draft day cost has steadily remained behind the elite early-round aces.
Although Wainwright didn't win the Cy Young, he may have been the most consistent starter in the National League last year. At one point, he had 26 starts in a row of six or more innings pitched and he placed in the top four in all three Triple Crown categories. He has improved in each of his three years as a starter, and even with Chris Carpenter on the roster, he's the ace of the staff.
Despite a two-month interruption due to a finger injury, Wainwright was the St. Louis ace again in 2008. He only started 20 games, but he went 11-3 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Even if Chris Carpenter returns to form this year, Wainwright will deservedly be at the top of the St. Louis rotation.
It’s been a strange road to the top of the St. Louis rotation for Wainwright. A top starting pitching prospect with Atlanta, Wainwright came to the St. Louis organization as part of the J.D. Drew trade in 2003. After suffering with two seasons of injuries and ineffectiveness in Triple-A, Wainwright got called up and was one of the best rookie relief pitchers in baseball in 2006, even saving the last game of the World Series. He moved back to starter in 2007 and initially struggled filling the shoes of the injured Chris Carpenter before coming into his own after the All-Star break.
Outside of Chris Carpenter, Wainwright was probably the most valuable Cardinals pitcher in 2006. He was practically unhittable over his first 12 appearances (one run and seven hits with a 15:3 K:BB in 16.2 IP), and wasn’t bad the rest of the way either. More importantly, he stepped in to close some key games down the stretch in the playoffs after Jason Isringhausen went down. As good as he was in relief, the Cardinals believe he can be a top-of-the-rotation starter. He should get an opportunity to join the Cardinals rotation, but if the Cardinals believe he’s better suited for the bullpen, he’ll be one of the more valuable non-closer relievers in the National League in 2007.
Wainwright was up-and-down at Triple-A last year. His final numbers were so-so, but he did end the year going 3-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 31 K in 26 IP before a September call-up. He's still one of the Cardinals' best prospects and will get a look in spring training, but Wainwright is most likely ticketed for another year at Triple-A.
Wainwright joined the Cardinals in the J.D. Drew trade and promptly improved the Cardinals minor-league pitching talent by a few grades. A slight tear in his elbow ligament shut him down after 12 unspectacular Triple-A outings in 2004. He was healthy enough to pitch in the Arizona Fall League but was 0-1 with a 5.23 ERA, walking nine in 10 innings. He has a live arm with a fastball in the 90s and a curveball that has fooled batters at the lower levels. It's a troublesome sign, however, that his hit and walk totals have gone up as his strikeout totals have gone down as he has advanced. He will need a healthy stint in Triple-A and a return to earlier form to carve his way into the rotation.
Wainwright was considered the best pitching prospect in the Atlanta system before being traded to St. Louis. While he wasn't overpowering at Double-A Greenville, he performed well-enough and a strong first half could see him called up in 2004.
The 2000 first-round draft pick had a solid year in high A, and will likely jump to AA. He's one of the strongest starting pitcher candidates in the Braves organization and could be a factor at the major-league level by 2004.
More Fantasy News
Next start confirmed
PSt. Louis Cardinals
September 12, 2018
Wainwright will start Sunday against the Dodgers, Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com reports.
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Uneven in return from DL
PSt. Louis Cardinals
September 10, 2018
Wainwright had a shaky outing in Monday's no-decision against the Pirates. He went five innings, allowing four runs on seven hits while striking out three.
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Activated ahead of start
PSt. Louis Cardinals
September 10, 2018
Wainwright (elbow) was activated as expected ahead of his scheduled start Monday against Pittsburgh.
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Set to rejoin rotation next Monday
PSt. Louis Cardinals
Elbow
September 3, 2018
Manager Mike Shildt said Wainwright (elbow) will be activated from the 60-day DL on Sept. 10 to start against the Pirates, Joe Trezza of MLB.com reports.
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Shines in Triple-A rehab start
PSt. Louis Cardinals
Elbow
September 2, 2018
Wainwright (elbow) fired five scoreless innings in Triple-A Memphis' win over Nashville on Saturday, scattering five hits and issuing two walks while recording seven strikeouts.
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