Andrew Miller
Andrew Miller
36-Year-Old PitcherRP
St. Louis Cardinals
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Miller's velocity fell to a career-worst 90 mph in 2020, yet he maintained a 29% strikeout rate and posted a 2.77 ERA across 13 innings. At least some of that success was due to the small sample that didn't have time to regress. For example, his walk rate fell below 4.0 BB/9 for the first time since 2017, yet Miller had only a 52.7% first-strike rate -- his worst mark since 2010. Miller will be heading into his age-35 season in 2021, and it's hard to find reasons for optimism. He isn't likely to earn save opportunities as Jordan Hicks should be ready to return and Giovanny Gallegos has proven to be more effective than Miller of late. No longer capable of racking up strikeouts for standalone value, Miller's control problems could return. He is also due home-run regression -- he didn't allow a single homer in 2020 -- which is likely to expose his otherwise deteriorating skillset. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#587
ADP
$Signed a two-year, $25 million contract with the Cardinals in December of 2018. $12 million option for 2021 vested in September of 2020.
Scoreless frame in return
PSt. Louis Cardinals
September 7, 2021
Miller (foot), activated from the injured list earlier in the day, fired a perfect sixth inning in a loss to the Dodgers on Monday, recording a strikeout.
ANALYSIS
The left-hander did need 23 pitches to get through a somewhat laborious inning, but the end result was certainly positive. Miller's up-and-down season includes his highest ERA (4.78) and WHIP (1.59) since 2011, so he's likely to continue operating in mostly low-leverage scenarios that will cap his fantasy value to a significant extent.
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Pitching Stats
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2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
15
Last 10 Games
15
Last 5 Games
13
How many pitches does Andrew Miller generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Andrew Miller generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-32%
BAA vs LHP
2021
 
 
-53%
BAA vs LHP
2020
 
 
-29%
BAA vs LHP
2019
 
 
-10%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2019vs Left .200 204 70 21 35 2 1 5
Since 2019vs Right .294 237 49 25 59 9 1 10
2021vs Left .194 71 22 4 12 2 1 1
2021vs Right .412 80 12 10 28 6 1 3
2020vs Left .158 22 9 3 3 0 0 0
2020vs Right .222 32 6 2 6 1 0 0
2019vs Left .213 111 39 14 20 0 0 4
2019vs Right .236 125 31 13 25 2 0 7
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-15%
ERA at Home
2021
 
 
-47%
ERA at Home
2020
 
 
-14%
ERA on Road
2019
 
 
-7%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2019Home 4.03 1.32 51.1 3 5 3 9.8 5.3 1.4
Since 2019Away 4.74 1.46 49.1 3 2 7 11.7 2.9 1.3
2021Home 3.50 1.33 18.0 0 0 0 6.5 4.5 1.0
2021Away 6.60 2.00 15.0 0 0 0 12.6 3.0 1.2
2020Home 3.00 1.17 6.0 0 0 1 10.5 6.0 0.0
2020Away 2.57 1.00 7.0 1 1 3 11.6 1.3 0.0
2019Home 4.61 1.35 27.1 3 5 2 11.9 5.6 2.0
2019Away 4.28 1.28 27.1 2 1 4 11.2 3.3 1.6
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Stat Review
How does Andrew Miller compare to other relievers?
This section compares his stats with all relief pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 30 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 30 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
2.43
 
K/9
9.3
 
BB/9
3.8
 
HR/9
1.1
 
Fastball
88.5 mph
 
ERA
4.91
 
WHIP
1.64
 
BABIP
.379
 
GB/FB
1.30
 
Left On Base
74.4%
 
Exit Velocity
79.4 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
5.7%
 
Spin Rate
2261 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
24.1%
 
Swinging Strike
10.5%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2003
It's no longer apropos to refer to a dominant lefty reliever as being in the Andrew Miller role. Injuries, age and workload conspired to elevate Miller's ERA to 4.45, by far his worst mark since transitioning to full-time bullpen duty. The lanky lefty's strikeout and walk rates eroded in 2018. Instead of rebounding, Miller essentially repeated those numbers, fanning a still-impressive 29.7% of batters but also walking a generous 11.4%. Add in a bloated 1.81 HR/9 and you have issues. Miller has a two-pitch arsenal, losing velocity on his fastball and bite on his slider. He'll be 35 years old next season, so the velocity likely isn't coming back and Miller will need to refine his control and command. The back-end roles in St. Louis are unclear, though the chances of Miller closing are slim. Even in leagues scoring holds, Miller is fringe as he has been a detriment to the ratios in back-to-back seasons now.
Injuries wrecked Miller's 2018 season. First it was a left hamstring strain, and then right knee inflammation sidelined the lefty for more than two months. Late in the campaign, a shoulder impingement cost Miller a stretch and he struggled upon his return, posting a 6.30 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over his final 10 regular-season appearances and allowing four of the five batters he faced in the ALDS to reach base (three walks, one hit). He lost nearly 10 percentage points from his strikeout rate (29.2%) and his walk rate increased to 10.4%, which coincided with Miller losing a tick of velocity. His 13.2% swinging-strike rate was a six-year low, but Miller was among the elite before the injury-plagued season with sub-2.00 FIPs in three of the previous four years. He inked a two-year deal with St. Louis, which is a nice landing spot, as they do not have an established closer. Jordan Hicks may get the majority of the saves, but Miller could easily factor into that mix.
Coming off a historic 2016 season, Miller missed time with patellar tendinitis in his knee and failed to approach his lofty 44.7 strikeout percentage from the previous season. He lost about one mph on his fastball, which might've been partially caused by his lower-body troubles, and his walk rate more than doubled to 8.3 percent. Even in his down year, though, Miller was outstanding, finishing ninth among relievers in FIP with a 1.99 mark (min. 30 innings). There's an outside shot of Miller earning more save chances this year, as 2018 marks the final year of closer Cody Allen's contract. Still, Cleveland will for the most part want to use the southpaw in his typical multiple-inning role. An investment in Miller will pack a bigger return in deep games where starting pitching thins out quickly, and in leagues with inning restrictions, where Miller's career 13.6 K/9 as a reliever will play up more.
Miller had a historically elite season for a non-closer reliever last season. He struck out 45 percent -- FORTY FIVE PERCENT!! -- of the batters he faced in 2016 while holding them to a .159 batting average. That was the third consecutive season in which Miller has struck out at least 40 percent of the batters he's faced while holding them below a .160 batting average. For all of that amazing dominance, he has 49 saves over the past three seasons. Miller has been a sabermetric dream for relief pitcher usage, but he really took off after a midseason trade to Cleveland under Indians manager Terry Francona, who used him to put out early fires while eschewing the traditional usage of the team's best reliever for later innings. Miller would be an amazing full-time closer again if Cleveland were to trade Cody Allen, but the team seems quite willing to use Miller in a multitude of hats. Not piling up saves at a steady clip deflates his rotisserie value a bit, but Miller is still a better choice than many starting pitchers thanks to his excellent ratios and top-end strikeout rate.
Miller's dominant 2014 season earned him a four-year, $36 million contract with the Yankees, but despite the price tag he entered the year figuring to either be in a time-share for the closer role with Dellin Betances or to serve as the setup man. Though manager Joe Girardi hesitated to officially tab an official closer early in the season, Miller was the clear winner of the competition as he proved his 2014 campaign wasn't a fluke. The lefty converted 36 of 38 save opportunities, working to a 2.04 ERA (2.16 FIP), while reaching 100 strikeouts for the second year in a row as he boasted a 100:20 K:BB ratio in 61.2 innings of work. Aroldis Chapman, who the Yankees acquired in the offseason, was hit with a 30-game suspension for a domestic incident, so Miller should assume the closing duties until the second week of May. However, at that point he will likely be relegated to a setup role with Chapman taking the ninth inning.
Miller showed glimpses of greatness after a transition to the bullpen as a member of the Red Sox in 2012 and 2013. His strikeout rate essentially doubled to better than 30 percent, but the walk rate continued to be a problem, with a 12 percent mark in those two seasons. He was an improvement in command and control away from being truly special. Well, that’s exactly what happened in 2014, as he sliced his walk rate in half, upped the strikeout rate substantially and became one of baseball’s best relievers. Gone were the gaudy BABIPs that haunted him throughout most of his career, and the absurd 20.0% HR/FB rate from 2013 fell to a far more normal 8.6%. Nobody stood a chance against Miller, and a trade to Baltimore put him in the limelight to showcase that talent. This all came at a perfect time as the 30-year-old was able to cash in in the form of a four-year, $36 million contract with the Yankees. He figures to at least challenge Dellin Betances for the ninth-inning job, but even if he doesn't close for New York, Miller should still hold value in a setup role.
Miller continued his fine work out of Boston's bullpen before a foot injury ended his season in July. He's the first choice to face left-handed hitters and dazzled by striking out 14.1 batters per nine innings. He still has control issues. It hasn't hurt him as a reliever, but there's potential for it to be a problem. He walked 5.0 batters per nine innings in 2013. If the foot is good when spring rolls around, Miller will return as one of the left-handers out of the pen.
Miller turned in the best performance of his career in 2012, his first season as full-time reliever. He reduced his walk rate (4.5 BB/9), though it is still far from optimal, and increased his strikeout rate, whiffing nearly three times as many batters as he walked. He was particularly tough on lefties (.149), and leading off innings (.087). It would appear the shift to the bullpen has allowed him to focus on being aggressive and not having to worry about setting up hitters. While the walks might be troublesome at some point, we are not arguing with the results. He will return to Boston's bullpen in 2013, serving as a lefty specialist in a seventh-inning role.
Miller had a very dominant three-week stretch for Triple-A Pawtucket just as an opt-out clause in his contract was set to kick in, and he parlayed that into a regular role as a starting pitcher for Boston during mid-summer. Unfortunately, after a period of modest success in wins over Pittsburgh, Houston, and Baltimore, Miller lost the command he showed for the PawSox and was out of Boston's rotation entirely. He got a few more starts as the Red Sox collapsed late and remains on the 40-man roster for now. There's still hope Miller can consistently repeat his delivery over longer stretches and iron out the valleys.
Miller's time in Florida drew to a disappointing close, as it seemed like he had more injuries than big league victories. With his development time constantly interrupted and derailed the lanky lefty has become a mechanical mess, with his already shaky control actually regressing. The Red Sox will take a shot at rebuilding his delivery (and his confidence) but Miller's odds of having any value seem very long.
Various injuries once again kept Miller from pitching much more than about 100 innings in 2009, and once again his numbers were nothing special when he was healthy. Repeatable mechanics, not raw stuff, continue to be the issue for the lanky lefty, and his health woes aren't helping him on that front. Consider him the high-risk/high-reward poster boy, since at this point he seems just as likely to emerge as a bust as he does an ace.
Miller's numbers were as unsightly as they were the year before, but once again he did enough to tease those who see a future ace in his tall frame and raw stuff. His HR/9 and BB/9 rates improved, and for two months midseason he looked like a bona fide major league hurler (3.36 ERA, 1.26 WHIP over 11 May/June starts) before his right knee became a problem again and derailed his progress. The knee is a major concern but he's still be just 23 when the season begins and Miller has plenty of time to put it all together, so a buy-low opportunity may be presenting itself here if his midsummer performance was more than just a mirage.
The Tigers gave Miller an opportunity to join their rotation last season after putting Nate Robertson on the disabled list. Miller managed to stick around for a few months but he was ineffective. Command was the major problem as his 56:39 K:BB ratio. A hamstring injury kept Miller sidelined for much of August and when he returned to the majors he remained inconsistent. The Tigers opted to shut him down in early September to work on his mechanics but that didn't happen due to patellar tendinitis in his knee. Miller was traded to Florida in December where he'll likely earn a rotation spot.
Miller was Detroit's top pick last season and the consensus best player in the draft. He complements a high 90s fastball with a power slider and cut fastball. His future is as a starter but because Detroit was in a playoff race last season the team decided to call up the talented lefty at the end of August to add another southpaw to their pen. Miller didn't perform as well as he would have liked but that shouldn't be held against him by fantasy owners. He'll likely open next season at Double-A but could move quickly if he dominates. He could join the Tigers rotation as early as 2008.
More Fantasy News
Activated from injured list
PSt. Louis Cardinals
September 6, 2021
Miller (foot) was activated off the injured list Monday, Zachary Silver of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Throws bullpen Saturday
PSt. Louis Cardinals
Foot
September 5, 2021
Miller (foot) threw a bullpen session Saturday without issues and could be activated during the coming week, the Associated Press reports.
ANALYSIS
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Goes on IL
PSt. Louis Cardinals
Foot
August 28, 2021
The Cardinals placed Miller on the 10-day injured list Saturday with a left foot blister, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
ANALYSIS
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Rocky road in August
PSt. Louis Cardinals
August 27, 2021
Miller has a 10.50 ERA, 1.67 WHIP and 1.5 HR/9 across the six innings covering his last six appearances.
ANALYSIS
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Solid in July
PSt. Louis Cardinals
July 24, 2021
Miller, who fired a scoreless two-thirds of an inning during which he allowed two hits and recorded a strikeout in a loss to the Reds on Friday, has a 2.45 ERA and two holds across his last six appearances.
ANALYSIS
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