Adam Jones
Adam Jones
33-Year-Old OutfielderOF
Baltimore Orioles
2018 Fantasy Outlook
Jones continues to produce at a high level, yet he's seemingly always undervalued when drafts and auctions roll around. He hit 26 home runs last year, marking his seventh straight season with 25-plus homers, and he exceeded 150 runs-plus-RBI for the eighth time in nine seasons. Jones has never walked much, and in 2017 his walk rate slid back to just 4.3 percent, but his contact skills are holding steady. Declining defense in recent years has dinged Jones' real-life value, but he should continue to play everyday regardless, and his extensive offensive track record outweighs concerns about the declining flyball rate and inflated HR/FB leading to a big, immediate dip in the power department. There are far sexier outfield options, but there is tremendous value in consistency, especially when it comes at a discount. Expect Jones to finish close to where he's been in every year this decade. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Agreed to six-year extension with Orioles in May of 2012. The deal is reportedly worth $85.5 million.
On bench Thursday
OFBaltimore Orioles
September 13, 2018
Jones is not in the lineup Thursday against the Athletics, Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports reports.
ANALYSIS
Jones is back on the bench following consecutive starts in which he went 2-for-6 with a stolen base. While the veteran outfielder is healthy, he figures to see more frequent off-days down the stretch with the Orioles out of playoff contention. John Andreoli, Cedric Mullins and Joey Rickard will cover the outfield from left to right in this one.
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Batting Stats
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Minor League Game Log
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Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2016
 
 
+18%
OPS vs RHP
2018
 
 
+10%
OPS vs RHP
2017
 
 
+9%
OPS vs RHP
2016
 
 
+38%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2016vs Left .670 476 49 11 46 1 .253 .295 .374
Since 2016vs Right .789 1397 172 59 168 10 .285 .322 .467
2018vs Left .690 158 15 3 17 0 .281 .297 .392
2018vs Right .761 408 38 12 41 7 .284 .321 .440
2017vs Left .739 160 17 5 12 1 .260 .321 .418
2017vs Right .803 475 65 21 61 1 .293 .322 .481
2016vs Left .580 158 17 3 17 0 .218 .268 .313
2016vs Right .798 514 69 26 66 2 .280 .323 .475
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2016
 
 
+10%
OPS at Home
2018
 
 
+3%
OPS at Home
2017
 
 
+11%
OPS at Home
2016
 
 
+16%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2016Home .795 958 127 40 124 8 .283 .326 .469
Since 2016Away .721 915 94 30 90 3 .271 .304 .416
2018Home .750 296 29 9 37 6 .284 .314 .436
2018Away .731 270 24 6 21 1 .282 .315 .416
2017Home .827 338 53 17 42 2 .284 .328 .498
2017Away .743 297 29 9 31 0 .286 .314 .429
2016Home .804 324 45 14 45 0 .281 .334 .469
2016Away .694 348 41 15 38 2 .251 .287 .407
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Stat Review
How does Adam Jones compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
BB/K
0.27
 
BB Rate
4.0%
 
K Rate
15.0%
 
BABIP
.313
 
ISO
.141
 
AVG
.284
 
OBP
.315
 
SLG
.426
 
OPS
.741
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
For years owners have been able to pencil in Jones for a batting average in the .280s, 25-30 home runs, 10-15 steals, 90-100 runs and 85-90 RBI. While he still delivered power, runs and RBI in 2016, he was a below league-average hitter (96 wRC+) for the first time since 2008, and stole fewer than five bases for the second year in a row. Projection systems will forecast a batting average in the .270 range rather than the .280 range. A trend of hitting more balls in the air and fewer on the ground has led to subpar batting averages on balls in play over the past two seasons, culminating in a 1.06 GB/FB last season, by far his lowest mark since 2007. Jones has been a nearly everyday player at a physically taxing position; that workload takes a toll, as we are similarly seeing with Andrew McCutchen. He needs to be viewed as a three-category player going forward.
Despite his reputation for consistency, Jones had an up-and-down season in 2015. He dazzled fantasy owners by slashing .400/.440/.707 in April before following it up with .239/.272/.284 and just three extra-base hits in May. Jones rebounded before missing most of the last two weeks of the season with back spasms. He has not had a DL stint since 2009 and kept that streak intact thanks to September roster flexibility. His average dipped to a career-low (in qualifying seasons), but even that was not too far from the norm for his career. There was a time when Jones was an elite asset, but his days as a threat on the basepaths appear to be behind him. That said, Jones had a career-low 17.6% strikeout rate and maintained the power production in 2015, so there is still plenty to like.
Jones remains one of the most consistent players in baseball, parlaying his tools into a sixth straight year of five-category production. While he has always been able to produce without drawing walks, Jones took fewer free passes than ever in 2014 (2.8% BB%). Fortunately, he didn't show any change in his strikeout rate, fanning at a 19.5% clip compared to a 19.4% career mark. Perhaps of some concern, Jones had a .709 OPS against right-handed pitching in 2014, but he offset that slide by demolishing left-handed pitching to the tune of a 1.003 mark. Even if he's unable to return to his pre-2014 norms against righties, Jones' durability and placement in the heart of the Baltimore lineup should make his decline a gradual one. The track record will place Jones among the league's top outfielders on draft day as a safe high-priced target. Don't be fooled, as there is actually some risk here as Jones approaches age 30 in August.
Jones has turned into a model of consistency. You can pretty much count on a .280 average, 30 home runs and double-digt steals. Leagues that have OBP or OPS continue to suffer from Jones' inability to take walks, while his 0.18 BB/K ratio in 2013 was a career worst. Jones is entrenched in Baltimore's outfield for at least four more years and he is a very safe fantasy bet provided that he maintains the isolated power levels that he's displayed over the past two seasons (.218 and .208, respectively).
Early in 2012, Jones drew Matt Kemp comparisons by hitting 16 home runs and stealing eight bases through the end of May. Those numbers ended up being exactly half his totals for the season, though he accomplished the first half in 51 games and the second half in 101 games. Though he topped 30 home runs for the first time in his career, Jones went more than 100 at-bats in a July-to-August stretch without a deep ball. However, Jones increased his line drive percentage (around 17 percent from 2008-2011) to 21.5 percent in 2012. At 27 years old, Jones is still in his prime and fully capable of providing a string of several 30-homer, 15-steal seasons.
Jones hasn't yet blossomed into the full-blown star he looked like as a prospect, but he continues to be a productive center fielder. He set career highs with 25 home runs, 83 RBI and 12 stolen bases in 2011. Plate discipline continues to be a hindrance - his OBP was only .319 despite a .280 average - and that will continue to suppress his run totals, as he only scored 68 runs. Still, he provides excellent power and some speed at center field for Baltimore, and it's tough to ask for too much more.
Jones virtually duplicated his 2009 season, but that isn't necessarily a good thing when you consider he played in 30 more games in 2010. At one time, Jones was considered to be a prolific power prospect, which might make his 19 home runs look like an underachievement. There were signs of growth in the second half of the season, when Jones delivered a .296/.355/.426 line in 230 at-bats after the All-Star break. Unfortunately, that was accompanied by a power outage (just five homers during that span). He's still just 25, however, and there's more upside here than you'll find in a typical middle-round outfielder on draft day.
Jones took a monumental step forward in 2009 until an ankle injury forced him to miss the last month of the season. Injury aside, he still managed to win a Gold Glove. Jones cut down on his strikeouts and tapped into the power that made him such an electric prospect. If the trends serve him well, consistent 30-home run, 100-RBI seasons are on the horizon. Don't forget that he'll only turn 25 in August.
Jones had all the makings of a power-hitting prospect when he came to the Orioles in the Erik Bedard deal, but he hit just nine home runs in 2008. He is overaggressive at the plate, drawing just 23 walks against 108 strikeouts in a season in which he missed nearly a month with a foot injury. Keep in mind that he did this mostly as a 22-year-old, turning 23 in August. There's plenty of raw talent here - it's just a matter of being patient enough to let it develop. He might not have the huge upside of Justin Upton, but in keeper leagues, this is a guy you want to target now, before he takes the leap.
After destroying Triple-A pitching to the tune of .314/.382/.586 with 27 doubles and 25 homers in 101 games, Jones, the organization's top prospect, finally was called up in early August last season. He didn't get many chances, though, starting just 15 of 56 games after his promotion and getting fewer major league at-bats (65) than he did in 2006 (74). Jones won't sit much this year, though, as he's slated to start in right field. Jones, who had four multi-hit games and five extra-base hits, was a highly sought trade chip this offseason. If the Mariners move him, they'd have a big hole to fill in the outfield as they also chose not to re-sign Jose Guillen. Wherever Jones lands, he is a 20-homer threat and has speed too. His plate discipline is still worth keeping an eye on, though. While he improved his Triple-A walk rate from 6.8 percent in 2006 to 7.8 percent last season, his strikeout rate went the other way, from one per 4.8 at-bats in 2006 to one per 3.9 at-bats last year.
The organization's top prospect, Jones made his major league debut last season but was overmatched to an extent when he wasn't a victim of manager Mike Hargrove's inconsistent lineups. Jones struggled at the plate and had his moments in center field, but that was to be expected as the Mariners promoted him a little earlier than expected. He is a legitimate 20-20 threat, at minimum, but likely will start the year back in Triple-A Tacoma for further development, especially with his plate discipline.
Jones made huge progress last season, refining his swing and showing continued power development on his way to being named the Mariners minor league player of the year. He hit .297 with 15 homers, 66 RBI and 13 stolen bases between High-A Inland Empire and Double-A San Antonio. His plate discipline still needs some work (112/51 K/BB), though. After playing exclusively at shortstop, Jones moved to center field because of Yuniesky Betancourt. The switch went well in the Arizona Fall League where Jones showed a strong arm and good speed. He's among the system's top outfield prospects, and if he continues to hit, could get a late-season call-up.
Seattle's 2003 first-round draft pick, Jones struggled early last season with his bat, and all season with his glove. Things finally came around at the plate late in the season at mid-level Single-A Wisconsin, but he still made 31 errors. The Mariners like Jones' potential, but the organization is stocked at shortstop. Top man Jose Lopez could move to third, but that still leaves Mike Morse, Matt Tuiasosopo and even Justin Leone to spar with.
More Fantasy News
Sits for third consecutive game
OFBaltimore Orioles
September 9, 2018
Jones is not in the lineup Sunday against the Rays, Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports reports.
ANALYSIS
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Remains on bench Saturday
OFBaltimore Orioles
September 8, 2018
Jones is out of the lineup for Saturday's game against Tampa Bay, Brittany Ghiroli of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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On bench Friday
OFBaltimore Orioles
September 7, 2018
Jones is out of the lineup against the Rays on Friday, Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports reports.
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Three hits in loss
OFBaltimore Orioles
September 6, 2018
Jones went 3-for-4 with a double in Wednesday's loss to the Mariners.
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Takes seat Sunday
OFBaltimore Orioles
September 2, 2018
Jones is out of the lineup for Sunday's series finale against the Royals, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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