Matt Garza

Garza enters 2017 in a contract year, something both sides will no doubt be happy about. The two worst seasons of Garza's career have come on the hapless Brewers squads of the past two years. In that span, Garza has allowed a brutal 5.18 ERA and 34 home runs over 250.1 innings with a sub-2.0 K/BB. Garza's velocity was at its lowest average ever last year at 92.2 mph, but that's still within a point of his career norm. At 33 years old, it's entirely possible Garza has simply run out of gas. His swinging-strike rate has dropped to 7.8 percent the past two seasons. Perhaps the only reason to believe in a Garza renaissance is the possibility of a trade should he show well to begin the season -- Garza desperately wants to play for a contender, and Milwaukee won't be one in 2017.

After a passable 2014, Garza had one of the worst seasons of his career in 2015. The right-hander lost a career-high 14 games while posting a 5.63 ERA and 1.57 WHIP, both of which were only marginally better than his first season in the majors. Garza also had some of the worst strikeout and walk rates of his career. The 31-year-old has two years left on his contract with Milwaukee, so his position in the rotation is still fairly safe. However, if he continues to regress, the Brewers may look to their younger starters more frequently in order to put them in a better position for the future.

Garza got off to a bit of a bumpy start in his first season in Milwaukee, but he finished the campaign strong, posting a 2.80 ERA over his final 17 starts. His strikeout rate dropped nearly a full point last season, but he kept his ERA low by giving up just 12 home runs -- his lowest total since becoming a full-time starter. He is locked into a rotation spot for the Brewers after signing a four-year deal prior to last season, but exactly where he slots in will not be determined until spring training.

Garza entered the winter as a free agent following another Garza-like season, split between the Cubs and Rangers. His ERA+ trend has been settling in the 105-110 range the last four seasons, but he's been pretty durable throughout his career, save for an arm injury that shelved him for the second half of 2012 and early 2013. He was scooped up by the Brewers in free agency, and will slot in somewhere among the top three pitchers in the starting rotation.

Even before a stress reaction in his elbow sidelined him for good in July, Garza was having a disappointing year, allowing 15 homers in 103.2 innings, a 3.91 ERA and posting just five wins. That said, his command was as strong as ever with a 96:32 K:BB. And his GB/FB ratio (1.38) was roughly in line with his 2011 mark (1.47). In other words, assuming he's at full health (in December, he was cleared to resume normal offseason activities), he should be considered more or less the same player he was heading into 2011. Just keep in mind that if he's not traded, the Cubs are probably a year or so away from offering consistent run support.

He may have won only 10 games, and the Cubs probably gave up too much to get him, but Garza was every bit the pitcher the Cubs expected to anchor their staff. Garza struck out a batter per inning, walked just 63 and did an excellent job of keeping the ball in the park, thanks to a career-best groundball rate (1.47 GB/FB). Garza averaged 94 mph on his fastball and was clocked at 102 by one presumably generous radar gun in early July. The bottom line, Garza pitched like a staff ace last year, and given that he's in the National League Central which just lost Albert Pujols and almost certainly Prince Fielder (and perhaps Ryan Braun for 50 games), we'd expect another strong season.

Garza headed into 2010 as the "No. 1-B" starter to ace James Shields and looked to fill the potential many thought he had. He started the season strong, posting a 2.06 ERA over 35 innings in April. However, his numbers dropped soon after and he only improved his overall ERA from the previous season by .04 points (3.91). Garza did win a career-high 15 games and eclipsed 200 innings for the second straight season. One particular concern is his declining K/9IP rate (down 1.7 from 2009). Fortunately, there was nothing wrong with his velocity so many feel his pitch selection was to blame. A move out of the AL East should boost his fantasy value, especially with the move to the National League after the Rays traded him to the Cubs in January. He'll only be 27 this season, so there's still room for improvement on the mound and a rebound in his strikeout rate seems like a good bet.

Garza enters the season as one of the better No. 2 starters in baseball. He probably has the best stuff out of all of the Rays' starters, and he held opposing batters to a .233 BAA (fourth in the AL) in 2009. His improved control (2.16 K:BB in 2008 to 2.39 K:BB in 2009) coupled with a second straight season with a sub-1.300 WHIP suggests a drastic improvement for his 8-12 record is in store. Only 26, draft Garza with confidence as he has yet to reach his full potential.

Garza made last winter's blockbuster trade with the Twins a stunning success for the Rays. After a mid-season tiff in a June game at Arlington with catcher Dioner Navarro, Garza emerged as a co-ace down the stretch for the Rays, posting a 3.07 ERA over his next 16 starts and holding batters to a .633 OPS. Garza followed that up with an MVP performance in the ALCS, including a Game 7 outing versus Boston that Rays fans have already bronzed on DVD. He'll return as the third starter in 2009.

Garza will be the No. 3 starter for Tampa Bay after he was traded in six-player deal for Delmon Young. Before the trade, Garza was Minnesota's top pitching prospect (a 2005 first-round pick) and had established himself in the majors after he was called up in July after an up-and-down rookie season. Garza had outstanding strikeout and control numbers in the minors, averaging a strikeout per inning in Triple-A. While his strikeout rate wasn't as impressive initially in the majors, he's just 24 years old and should improve once he grows more confident with his breaking pitches. While he has a mid-90's fastball, Twins management wasn't happy with how little he used his off-speed stuff early in the season. One benefit from the trade is that Garza had a 5.91 career ERA at the Metrodome, so a new home ballpark certainly won't hurt.

Garza is Minnesota's top pitching prospect and rose all the way from High-A to the majors last season. He dominated minor league competition with a 1.99 ERA and 154:32 K:BB in 135.2 innings across three levels. The Twins wanted to give him more seasoning in the high minors but a number of injuries thrust him into the big league rotation in early August. His first two months in the majors were inconsistent, including two quality starts and two horrible ones in which he didn't get out of the third inning. His strikeout rate and control were pedestrian compared to his outstanding minor league numbers. With a fastball that can hit the mid-90s and a strong slider, Garza will enter 2007 with a spot in the Minnesota rotation. His minor league numbers suggest he'll be a star, but will it be in 2007 with less than 100 career innings in the high minors?

Garza, Minnesota's 25th pick in the first round of the 2005 draft, was dominant at Low-A with a 64/15 K/BB ratio in 56 innings. He has a fastball that can hit the mid-90s and has a strong slider. He was a bit old for his competition coming right from college, so Double-A will be a good test. His future may also be as a reliever, but he's another Minnesota pitching prospect to add to your minor league keepers who could make an impact in the majors in 2007.