Chris Davis
Chris Davis
32-Year-Old First Baseman1B
Baltimore Orioles
2018 Fantasy Outlook
Davis was in a class of his own only a few short years ago, but he's not much more than "a guy" in fantasy nowadays given the new power landscape and Davis' own skill regression in recent seasons. He still has prodigious pop, but Davis' contact ability has slipped considerably, with his strikeout rate leaping from 31 percent to 37.2 percent over the past two years. His performance against lefties has declined dramatically -- Davis has gone from .265/.327/.450 against southpaws in 2015 to .216/.313/.398 to .208/.293/.326 last season (164 plate appearances). At his height, Davis was a three-category anchor, but he's been such a batting-average drain over the past couple seasons, to the point where those contributions have been largely offset. Davis has long been a negative in the field; considering that along with his lefty/righty splits, he's potentially in danger of falling into a platoon at some point in his age-32 season. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a seven-year, $161 million contract with the Orioles in January of 2016.
Enters lineup Monday
1BBaltimore Orioles
September 17, 2018
Davis is starting at first base and hitting fifth Monday against the Blue Jays, Jon Meoli of The Baltimore Sun reports.
ANALYSIS
Davis was originally on the bench with a southpaw in Ryan Borucki starting for the Blue Jays, but he was thrust into the lineup after Breyvic Valera and Joey Rickard were scratched for undisclosed reasons.
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Batting Stats
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Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2016
 
 
+17%
OPS vs RHP
2018
 
 
+12%
OPS vs RHP
2017
 
 
+27%
OPS vs RHP
2016
 
 
+16%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2016vs Left .625 504 50 17 59 2 .195 .280 .345
Since 2016vs Right .733 1190 153 63 135 2 .209 .308 .425
2018vs Left .509 139 9 5 15 1 .151 .216 .294
2018vs Right .570 366 30 11 34 1 .182 .260 .310
2017vs Left .619 164 16 4 15 0 .208 .293 .326
2017vs Right .785 360 49 22 46 1 .218 .317 .468
2016vs Left .711 201 25 8 29 1 .216 .313 .398
2016vs Right .828 464 74 30 55 0 .223 .341 .487
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2016
 
 
+3%
OPS on Road
2018
 
 
+16%
OPS at Home
2017
 
 
+3%
OPS on Road
2016
 
 
+13%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2016Home .690 871 104 42 101 4 .198 .296 .394
Since 2016Away .712 823 99 38 93 0 .211 .304 .408
2018Home .594 255 23 10 25 2 .185 .251 .343
2018Away .510 250 16 6 24 0 .162 .244 .266
2017Home .721 288 34 15 37 1 .213 .302 .419
2017Away .746 236 31 11 24 0 .217 .318 .429
2016Home .741 328 47 17 39 1 .196 .326 .415
2016Away .840 337 52 21 45 0 .244 .338 .502
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Stat Review
How does Chris Davis compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
BB/K
0.22
 
BB Rate
7.9%
 
K Rate
36.0%
 
BABIP
.240
 
ISO
.131
 
AVG
.172
 
OBP
.246
 
SLG
.303
 
OPS
.550
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
Davis hit 38 homers last year, and we should be happy with that, but that's so 2015. In a year where many players set career highs in homers and second baseman were going yard 30 times, Davis had a normal power year for him. That was not a good thing because outside of scoring 99 runs, he did not do anything else well at all. He drove in just 84 and his batting average returned to the sub-optimal range albeit not below the Mendoza Line like in 2014. At this stage of his career, Davis' skills are stable. He will hit for more power than most and will produce runs in bunches when he gets on one of his power hot streaks, but he is very unlikely to hit for average. Good luck predicting his batting average given there has been 90 points of variance in it over the past four seasons. The three true outcomes are consistent for him but everything else is quite fluid.
Davis has two elite seasons sandwiched around his miserable 2014 season that also saw him serve a brief suspension. He led MLB in home runs in both 2013 and 2015 and was also in the top-10 in slugging, OPS, RBI, and extra-base hits in each season. Davis also led MLB with 208 strikeouts in 2015, so there is no mystery why he hit under the Mendoza Line in 2014. When Davis makes contact, the ball usually goes a long way. Metrics show he makes medium or hard contact over 90 percent of the time, but a defensive infield shift curtails his average. Davis will be 30 years old in 2016, but he's back with Baltimore on a seven-year, $161 million deal, so nothing really changes for him. Davis will be wedged in the heart of the order and in the same home-run friendly environment.
Davis was one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy baseball during the 2014 season, as he failed to get back on track after suffering an oblique injury in late April. To make matters worse, Davis failed a second test for amphetamines late in 2014 and missed the rest of his disappointing season. It was later revealed that despite a medical need for Adderall, Davis did not have an exemption for its use in 2013 or 2014. If the big seasons of Melky Cabrera, Nelson Cruz, and Jhonny Peralta post-PED suspension are any indication, discounting Davis in 2015 due to the 2014 performance would be a mistake. It's also worth noting that he was approved for an exemption to take Adderall again in 2015. Davis can still hit 30-plus home runs in his sleep, offering a reasonable floor even if he's unable to return to his 2013 level again.
Davis gave validity to the age-27 theorists with a monster season that warranted him MVP consideration. He led the league in home runs (53) and RBI (138), despite slowing down in the second half of the season with a .245/.339/.515 line over his final 65 games. Davis also finished fifth in MLB with a 29.6% strikeout rate, but his .348 ISO (also tops in MLB) shows that his raw power could help him sustain his 2013 numbers. The power output alone has vaulted Davis into the fantasy elite among first basemen, and while he may not hit as high as .286 again, he could prove capable of providing 40 homers annually.
Davis found new life in his first full season in Baltimore while notching his first 30-homer season. The long balls came with a price - a strikeout every 3.1 at-bats. After having trouble getting the ball to leave the park in 2011, Davis had a 25.2 percent HR/FB rate. He also took a step back defensively and spent most of the season as the designated hitter until moving to the outfield for the first time in his career after Nick Markakis went down. Depending on their roster construction, Davis should remain the designated hitter. In a full season, Davis can hit 30 home runs with ease, but the strikeout slumps can occasionally cause him to get benched for small stretches.
Davis remains unable to cash in on his big minor-league success. He received another chance this year in Baltimore and remained unimpressive, posting a .708 OPS. He simply cannot afford to strike out so often - he fanned in 30.2 percent of at-bats with the Orioles last season. Davis chose offseason rehab over surgery after being diagnosed with a sports hernia, so keep an eye on his progress throughout the spring. Look for Baltimore to give him another chance in 2012, but he will be forever limited until he can figure out how to make contact.
Davis was replaced by Justin Smoak in late April after another poor start (.188/.264/.292 with 17 strikeouts in 48 at-bats), hit well at Triple-A Oklahoma City (again) after being sent down, earned a promotion after Smoak was included in the Cliff Lee trade, but failed to hit (again) when given the chance (.189/.267/.245 in 53 at-bats). No longer in Texas' plans following the late-season emergence of Mitch Moreland, Davis will need a change of scenery to get another extended look in the majors. His winter ball season was mixed (six homers in 22 games, but a .250/.341/.550 line with 25 strikeouts in 80 at-bats). If it's cheap power that you're after, be ready to invest in him should the at-bats come along.
Davis began the season in a 1-for-22 slump, struck out 114 times and hit just .202 in 258 at-bats before being sent down to Triple-A just prior to the All-Star break. He mashed again at Triple-A (.327/.423/.536) and was rewarded with a promotion and regular playing time upon his recall, where he hit .308/.338/.496 in 36 games. He's still going to strike out a bunch, but has a history of some success despite the whiffs and he'll get another crack as Texas' first baseman in 2010. The power is legitimate, though he'll need to improve his BB:K rate if he wants to be more than a low-average slugger.
Davis was a welcomed addition to the Texas lineup, hitting .285/.331/.549 in 295 at-bats after a midseason callup, banging out 17 homers and 42 extra-base hits in his time with the Rangers. He struck out too often, continuing his minor-league tendencies, but there's no limit to his power given his home park. He'll be third base eligible for at least one more season, though Texas has mentioned on numerous occasions this winter that Davis' future is at first base.
Davis managed a 35-game hitting streak for High-A Bakersfield before being promoted to Double-A Frisco, where he continued to hit well (.294/.371/.688 in 30 games). His strikeout totals remain worrisome, fanning 150 times in 495 at-bats and drawing just 35 walks, but his composite .297/.347/.598 line as a 21-year-old was a fine effort for his first full professional season after being selected in the 2006 draft. There's enormous power potential here.
Davis perfomed well after being selected in the fifth round last June, posting a solid .277/.343/.534 season in the short-season Northwest League. Fifteen homers in 253 at-bats show his power potential, though there's still plenty of work to do (23 walks, 65 strikeouts). Turning 21 in March means he's got plenty of time.
More Fantasy News
Remains on bench Monday
1BBaltimore Orioles
September 17, 2018
Davis is not in the lineup Monday against the Blue Jays, Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports reports.
ANALYSIS
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Hits bench Sunday
1BBaltimore Orioles
September 16, 2018
Davis is not in the lineup Sunday against the White Sox.
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Sits vs. lefty
1BBaltimore Orioles
September 13, 2018
Davis is not in the lineup Thursday against the Athletics, Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports reports.
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Out vs. left-hander
1BBaltimore Orioles
September 7, 2018
Davis is not in the lineup against Tampa Bay on Friday, Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports reports.
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Returns to lineup
1BBaltimore Orioles
September 4, 2018
Davis (illness) is hitting fifth as the designated hitter Tuesday against the Mariners, Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports reports.
ANALYSIS
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