Jeremy Hellickson
Jeremy Hellickson
31-Year-Old PitcherSP
Washington Nationals
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Hellickson had an interesting 2018 campaign for a number of reasons. He remained unsigned well into spring training, not inking a deal with the Nationals until mid-March. This late start meant he wasn't ready to pitch by Opening Day. When he did get added to the Washington rotation, he excelled, producing a 2.28 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in nine starts. The last of those starts was cut short due to a hamstring injury incurred while covering first base. He wasn't as sharp once he returned, and his season wound up being cut short by a wrist sprain sustained during a collision at home plate in August and re-injured on a swing in September. The veteran finished the season with a respectable 3.45 ERA and 65:20 K:BB in 91.1 innings, though his 4.26 FIP suggests some regression is on the way. Hellickson's value depends almost entirely on whether or not he can land a rotation spot with his next team. Read Past Outlooks
$Signed a one-year, $1.3 million contract with the Nationals in February of 2019 that includes $4 million in incentives.
Inside track on rotation spot
PWashington Nationals
February 15, 2019
Hellickson has the inside track on the Nationals' fifth starter spot, Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
The veteran appears to have the inside track over Erick Fedde and Joe Ross, both of whom are likely to open the season in the minors. Hellickson cut his ERA by nearly two runs last season, finishing with a 3.45 mark, but his peripherals trailed his results considerably. His 17.6 percent strikeout rate limits his upside.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-2%
BAA vs LHP
2018
 
 
-21%
BAA vs LHP
2017
 
 
-3%
BAA vs LHP
2016
 
 
-10%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2016vs Left .243 893 144 70 195 50 4 34
Since 2016vs Right .247 944 171 42 216 52 5 36
2018vs Left .204 202 35 14 37 7 2 6
2018vs Right .259 168 30 6 41 10 0 5
2017vs Left .250 325 44 24 73 24 0 17
2017vs Right .259 370 52 23 87 17 3 18
2016vs Left .257 366 65 32 85 19 2 11
2016vs Right .232 406 89 13 88 25 2 13
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-3%
ERA on Road
2018
 
 
-33%
ERA on Road
2017
 
 
-12%
ERA on Road
2016
 
 
-27%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2016Home 4.36 1.19 206.1 11 8 0 6.6 2.3 1.6
Since 2016Away 4.24 1.17 237.0 14 16 0 6.2 2.3 1.2
2018Home 4.50 1.12 26.0 1 0 0 5.2 1.0 2.4
2018Away 3.03 1.06 65.1 4 3 0 6.9 2.3 0.6
2017Home 5.80 1.36 80.2 3 4 0 5.0 3.2 2.0
2017Away 5.08 1.16 83.1 5 7 0 5.5 1.9 1.8
2016Home 3.16 1.06 99.2 7 4 0 8.2 1.8 1.1
2016Away 4.33 1.25 89.1 5 6 0 6.3 2.5 1.2
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Stat Review
How does Jeremy Hellickson compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
K/BB
3.25
 
K/9
6.4
 
BB/9
2.0
 
HR/9
1.1
 
Fastball
89.7 mph
 
ERA
3.45
 
WHIP
1.07
 
BABIP
.258
 
GB/FB
1.64
 
Strand %
72.4%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
Hellickson was dealt to the Orioles at the deadline with Baltimore looking to bolster its rotation on the cheap for a potential playoff run. The early returns were good; Hellickson mowed down the Royals over seven scoreless innings in his Baltimore debut. The rest of his Baltimore tenure? Not nearly as smooth. An 8.06 ERA with 13 home runs allowed over 44.2 innings (nine starts). Those numbers are a tad inflated by a five-home run meltdown against the Angels in August, but it doesn't exonerate him completely. As a low-velocity, low-strikeout right hander, Hellickson is best suited for a back-of-the-rotation option with a pitcher-friendly home park if his stint in the Camden Yards bandbox is any indication.
Picked up from the Diamondbacks prior to last season, Hellickson rewarded the Phillies with his best performance since his 2012 season with Tampa Bay. The key to Hellickson's success was an improved changeup, which he used nearly as often as his four-seam fastball. Batters hit just .168 against his change and fared worse against his curveball, which he used 15 percent of the time and ranks as one of the better curveballs in baseball in terms of vertical drop and spin rate. Hellickson doesn't generate a lot of strikeouts despite having two strong pitches in his arsenal because his fastball sits at just 90 mph. He has also been prone to giving up the long ball throughout his career. That said, he pitched very well in the cozy home confines last season (3.16 ERA, 1.06 WHIP). He accepted the Phillies qualifying offer and will return on a one-year, $17.2 million deal, giving him a chance to prove in his age-30 season that 2016 was no fluke.
Hellickson tossed 146 innings for the D-backs during his only season with Arizona, but the results were in line with his 2013 and 2014 marks with the Rays rather than the level he reached while winning the American League Rookie of the Year award in 2011 (2.95 ERA, 1.15 WHIP). Not surprisingly, the adjustment from Tropicana Field to Chase Field was a difficult one for Hellickson, and his home run rate checked in at a career-high 1.36 HR/9. With a slew of quality young arms pushing their way toward the rotation in Arizona, Hellickson was traded to the Phillies in November. There are no signs of significant improvement in his peripherals, but the injuries that slowed him in 2015 were all minor ones, so there is a reasonable chance that he will be able to chew up some innings as a member of the rotation for the rebuilding Phillies.
Hellickson was traded by Tampa Bay to Arizona for two prospects in mid-November. For the first two years of Hellickson’s career, he was known as The Strandman, as he stranded 80 percent of his baserunners and his ERA came in over a run lower than his FIP. For the past two seasons, Hellickson has been a nightmare to own as he could not strand anyone and really struggled pitching out of the stretch. He changed to using a slide step more with guys on base which affected his fastball, and he doubled down on that by throwing more fastballs with men on base to try to slow down the running game. Over the past two seasons, batters have hit .347 with a .618 slugging percentage off his fastball when Hellickson throws out of the stretch. Now he moves from a forgiving domed stadium to one that is not so forgiving in Arizona. Even if he rebounds, he’s now just end-game material in a mixed league.
Hellickson had a largely disappointing season in 2013 with the Rays after a few seasons of consistency. He finished the season with a respectable 12-10 record, but had a career-high 5.17 ERA over 32 games, with 31 of those being starts. Surprisingly, his peripheral numbers were not signficantly worse than the year before with his strikeout and walk rates holding steady. He did have a BABIP of .307 that could be more related to location than bad luck. One concerning trend is that he did see a drop in velocity on his fastball and opted to throw his two-seamer more often. Though he took a step back in 2013, Hellickson is a part of the Rays' plans in the near future and should be a virtual lock for a spot in the back of the rotation in 2014, though fantasy owners will want to be wary of his recent performance.
Hellickson took a slight step back in 2012 overall posting a 10-11 record and a 3.10 ERA over 31 starts. These numbers are still solid and the Gold Glove winner showed improvement in his sophomore season by raising his K/BB 1.6 to 2.1. He had a brief DL stint in June due to shoulder fatigue and pitched fewer innings than 2011 while seeing his WHIP rise to 1.25. Hellickson will still only be 26 years old for the 2013 season and should see steady performance in the middle of the rotation and even a few more wins if the Rays restock on offense. He does not have elite strikeout potential, but he is a steady source of production on arguably one of the best pitching staffs in baseball.
Hellickson turned in a solid rookie season as the Rays' No. 5 starter and was rewarded with the American League Rookie of the Year award. He finished the season with a 2.95 ERA, a 1.153 WHIP, and a 13-10 record. Hellickson doesn't have overpowering stuff but uses solid command to locate his low-90s fastball and also throws a plus-changeup and curve. While the ERA and WHIP were excellent, there were a few minor red flags to his award-winning season. His .223 BABIP suggests he was somewhat lucky and his 5.57 K/9IP and 3.43 BB/9IP aren't numbers you usually see coincide with a 2.95 ERA. This isn't to say he's not an extremely talented pitcher; just realize a sub-3.00 ERA likely isn't in the cards again. Look for him to open the season toward the end of the rotation for the Rays.
Hellickson did nothing to tarnish his elite prospect status, dominating at Triple-A and carrying that success over to the majors. After pitching his way to a 2.45 ERA (1.177 WHIP) at Durham, he held a 3.47 ERA (1.101 WHIP) in 36.1 innings with the Rays. After the season ended, he was awarded Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year for 2010. There were many who thought Hellickson should have been called up sooner and used more with the big club given his success and their struggles in the rotation. The Rays resisted that urge and allowed him to gain confidence and experience which should pay dividends this year. Between the two levels he struck out over a batter per inning and held opposing hitters to a .238 average. Hellickson has three plus-pitches, with a killer changeup to use as his out-pitch. He relies on location and movement rather than power. One of the few prospects in baseball with legitimate No. 1 upside, the Rays made room for him in their rotation by trading Matt Garza to the Cubs in January. With a rotation spot of his own, Hellickson is an excellent sleeper and a candidate for Rookie of the Year honors.
Hellickson was unhittable last season on his way to being named the Rays' minor league pitcher of the year. He started the year at Double-A Montgomery where a 2.38 ERA and a 0.971 WHIP earned him a promotion to Triple-A Durham. After the promotion he was even better, posting a 2.51 ERA, 0.802 WHIP, and 70 strikeouts in only 59.1 innings at Durham. Over his last four starts, he fanned at least nine batters in each game and his 4.55 K/BB ratio demonstrates his excellent command. Come spring training he'll give the Rays something to think about, but a glut of starting pitching (Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann, James Shields, David Price, Matt Garza) could land him back at Durham. Keep him on your radar, as he's one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball.
That great fastball of Hellickson's proved a little hittable when he first moved to Double-A, but those numbers improved in August, when he made those necessary adjustments as the season drew to a close. Hellickson may start 2009 back at Double-A, but he's likely no more than two years away from the bigs.
The Rays have been acknowledged as having perhaps the best pool of pitching prospects in the game, and Hellickson is certainly part of that group. He's got a great fastball that consistently hits 92-93 mph and an awfully good curve as well. He'll start 2008 at High-A Vero Beach, but he'll turn just 21 in April, so the Rays will not necessarily rush him. Hellickson's ETA at the big league level is likely 2010, so plan accordingly; he should be rostered in any serious dynasty league.
Tampa Bay picked Hellickson in the fourth round in 2005 out of high school, but many thought he had first-round stuff. He put up nice numbers in short-season ball in 2005, holding hitters to a .193 average. He has a fastball that hits 94 mph regularly and a good curve. He's still at least two years away from the bigs, but Hellickson is one to watch in keeper leagues.
More Fantasy News
Returns to Washington
PWashington Nationals
February 6, 2019
Hellickson agreed to a one-year, $1.3 million contract with the Nationals on Wednesday, Jon Heyman of FancredSports.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Done for season after wrist injury
PWashington Nationals
Wrist
September 15, 2018
Hellickson will miss the rest of the season after re-injuring his right wrist Saturday against Atlanta, Mark Zuckerman of MASN Sports reports.
ANALYSIS
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Hurts wrist while swinging
PWashington Nationals
Wrist
September 15, 2018
Hellickson exited Saturday's game against the Braves after injuring his wrist while swinging, Mark Zuckerman of MASN Sports reports.
ANALYSIS
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Draws start Saturday
PWashington Nationals
September 14, 2018
Hellickson will start against the Braves on Saturday, Mark Zuckerman of MASN Sports reports.
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Back from injury
PWashington Nationals
September 12, 2018
Hellickson (wrist) was activated from the 10-day disabled list Wednesday, Dan Kolko of MASN Sports reports.
ANALYSIS
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