J.A. Happ
J.A. Happ
38-Year-Old PitcherSP
Minnesota Twins
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Happ quietly put together a solid showing last season, posting a 3.47 ERA and career-best 1.05 WHIP. In fact, remove his first two starts and those numbers improve to 2.34/0.87. Much of his success was centered on limiting hard contact and keeping the ball on the ground at a tolerable rate (1.25 GB/FB). While Happ still yielded a 1.5 HR/9, that was a considerable improvement over the 1.9 HR/9 he posted in 2019. The veteran has never thrown very hard, and it's no surprise that his low-90s fastball has consistently led to a below-average strikeout rate. Still, there is some comfort in knowing that neither the velocity nor the strikeouts have cratered as Happ has entered his late 30s. He should have a steady role in the Minnesota rotation after signing a one-year $8 million contract, but a lack of strikeouts and low ceiling make him no more than a late-round option in fantasy drafts. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#429
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $8 million contract with the Twins in January of 2021.
Shaky in no-decision
PMinnesota Twins
June 22, 2021
Happ didn't factor into the decision in Monday's 7-5 extra-innings win over the Reds after allowing three runs on five hits and five walks over 4.2 innings. He struck out four.
ANALYSIS
The veteran lefty needed 108 pitches (60 strikes) to record 14 outs, and Happ's line could have been worse if Luke Farrell hadn't gotten Eugenio Suarez to fly out with two men on to close out the fifth inning. Happ hasn't lasted longer than five innings in any of his last five trips to the mound, posting a 7.23 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, 18:9 K:BB and ghastly 3.4 HR/9 over 23.2 innings during that stretch.
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Pitching Stats
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2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2021 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
93
Last 10 Games
93
Last 5 Games
92
How many pitches does J.A. Happ generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does J.A. Happ generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-13%
BAA vs LHP
2021
 
 
-3%
BAA vs LHP
2020
 
 
-10%
BAA vs LHP
2019
 
 
-15%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2019vs Left .229 274 60 16 58 5 1 9
Since 2019vs Right .263 887 170 71 212 44 5 46
2021vs Left .277 50 9 2 13 1 1 1
2021vs Right .285 239 39 21 61 14 4 12
2020vs Left .188 51 11 3 9 0 0 2
2020vs Right .209 143 31 12 27 7 0 6
2019vs Left .228 173 40 11 36 4 0 6
2019vs Right .268 505 100 38 124 23 1 28
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-20%
ERA at Home
2021
 
 
-43%
ERA at Home
2020
 
 
-59%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-4%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2019Home 4.39 1.27 141.1 10 7 0 6.6 2.6 1.8
Since 2019Away 5.49 1.33 134.1 7 6 0 8.4 3.1 1.8
2021Home 4.54 1.32 35.2 2 1 0 5.3 3.8 1.8
2021Away 7.98 1.70 29.1 1 2 0 8.3 2.5 1.8
2020Home 1.96 0.78 23.0 1 0 0 6.3 1.6 1.2
2020Away 4.78 1.29 26.1 1 2 0 8.9 3.8 1.7
2019Home 5.01 1.39 82.2 7 6 0 7.3 2.4 2.0
2019Away 4.81 1.19 78.2 5 2 0 8.4 3.1 1.8
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does J.A. Happ compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
2.09
 
K/9
6.6
 
BB/9
3.2
 
HR/9
1.8
 
Fastball
90.5 mph
 
ERA
6.09
 
WHIP
1.49
 
BABIP
.311
 
GB/FB
0.79
 
Left On Base
66.0%
 
Exit Velocity
81.9 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
6.8%
 
Spin Rate
2282 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
23.2%
 
Swinging Strike
8.3%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring J.A. Happ
DraftKings MLB: Monday Breakdown
Yesterday
Mike Barner is all over an Astros stack Monday against Baltimore.
FanDuel MLB: Monday Targets
Yesterday
After checking out Monday's slate of games, Chris Morgan likes Reds outfielder Nick Castellanos against the southpaw J.A. Happ.
AL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
2 days ago
Erik Siegrist reviews the free-agent pool in the American League as Matt Manning adds another high-ceiling arm to the Detroit rotation.
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Status Quo, at Least for Now
3 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the starting pitchers for the upcoming week, where Miami's Trevor Rogers has officially arrived as he cracks the Top 5.
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Towering Above the Rest
10 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the week's starting pitching as Rays ace Tyler Glasnow is leaps and bounds ahead of the pack.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
A flyball pitcher in Yankee Stadium with a ball traveling 5-to-10 feet further than expected is a recipe for disaster. Sure enough, Happ's 1.9 HR/9 was third worst among pitchers tossing at least 150 frames. Happ's K% was just 20.7%, down from 26.3% in 2018, despite nearly identical supporting metrics, particularly SwStr%. While he may have been a little unlucky in that regard last season, he was very fortunate the previous year. Happ averaged just 92 mph on his fastball, throwing it about half the time. He split sinker, changeup and slider usage fairly equally, with his sinker being his best pitch. Even if the ball reverts to 2018's traits, Happ is a fantasy risk, especially to ratios. He may be best used as a primary pitcher, following a dominant right-handed opener as he barely averages five innings a start. It's not ideal when wins line up to be your best asset.
Happ is a 35-year-old lefty coming off another solid season by both real baseball measures as well as fantasy ones. He has pitched in the AL East since the second half of the 2012 season, yet has not had an ERA over 3.70 since 2014. It is true that the league-wide strikeout rate continues to rise annually, but Happ's improvements over the last three outpace the league's overall rate. He has cut back on his breaking ball usage for more changeups and that led to career-best contact (78.3%) and swinging-strike rates (10.4%) this past season. Happ has made 30 or more starts in four of the past five seasons, but has eclipsed the 180-inning mark just once. He returned to the Yankees on a two-year deal in free agency and projects to open the season as the team's No. 4 starter.
Elbow inflammation sidelined Happ early in the season, but he hit his stride shortly after his return in late May, allowing three runs or fewer in 11 of 12 starts spanning the course of two months. He endured a couple hiccups in August, but Happ finished strong with a 1.99 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 32:8 K:BB in five September starts (31.2 innings). The peripherals were even better than they were in 2016, as Happ added more than a full strikeout to his K/9 and only gave a little back with the walks (2.9 BB/9) and homers (1.1 HR/9). He nearly doubled his changeup usage, upping it from 6.5 percent to 12.1 percent, and that helped keep opposing hitters off the low-90s fastball. He was still a little too hittable against right-handers and the offense may not be any good next year, but Happ has made 25-plus starts in each of the last four seasons and his performance has been steady since Ray Searage worked his magic a few years ago.
Happ won a career-high 20 games in 2016, tying him for second in MLB, while posting a career-best 3.18 ERA that was good for sixth-best in the AL. He also set personal records in games started (32) and innings pitched (195), while his 1.17 WHIP was good for 10th in the AL. It should be noted that he also benefitted from 6.9 runs of support per start, second-most in MLB, en route to his 20-win campaign. The wins masked some of the 33-year-old's fairly pedestrian numbers, such as a 7.5 K/9 and 2.8 K/BB. Happ also posted a weak 4.01 FIP and was somewhat lucky with a low .268 BABIP, which was fifth-best among AL starters. Most indicators would suggest that the 11-year veteran had a very fortunate season, and Happ's performance moving forward will likely regress back near his career averages. He is a valuable pitcher, but the draft day price tag may be a little unreasonable.
Happ gave Pittsburgh an unexpected boost after coming over from Seattle at the trade deadline last year. The lefty limited batters to a .577 OPS while registering a 69:13 K:BB ratio (9.8 K/9) as a Pirate. At 33 years of age, it will be interesting to find out whether Happ simply got hot in an new environment or whether he’s finally figured things out with the help of Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage. It’s easy to forget that Happ posted a 4.64 ERA and 1.40 WHIP (in 108.2 IP) with Seattle before the move to the Bucs, which makes projecting 2016 that much harder. After signing a three-year, $36 million deal with the Blue Jays in November, Happ returns to the place that he called home for nearly two-and-a-half seasons, where he will add depth in the Blue Jays' pitching staff.
Happ has a modicum of skill that affords runs of usefulness in the fantasy game, but determining when those runs will come isn’t always easy. For example, he was actually great at home last year despite pitching in a hitter-friendly park like Rogers Centre. The lefty managed a 3.15 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 3.7 K/BB ratio in 91 home innings. Of course, he canceled it all out with a 5.67 ERA in 67 road innings. The biggest surprise about his home success was the fact that it came with a 1.4 HR/9. Traded to Seattle in November, spacious Safeco Field should protect him from home runs this season. He has lowered his ERA in each of the last three seasons, but when you start at 5.35, that isn’t necessarily an impressive feat. Happ is the kind of the fifth starter who gets drafted late when people are just looking for a name who has a starting role, but you would be much better off speculating on a highly skilled middle reliever who will actually help you, even with a small amount of innings.
Happ lost a good portion of this 2013 season to injury, after taking a vicious comebacker off the head. He finished the year with a 4.53 ERA over 92.2 innings, while posting BB/9 (4.4) and K/9 (7.5) marks that were right in line with his past numbers. The soft-tossing lefty has always piled up a surprising number of strikeouts for his style, but he doesn't have much upside and is still likely to open 2014 as the Blue Jays' fifth starter or as a long man out of the bullpen.
Happ started six games for Toronto before a broken foot ended his season. While his 4.79 ERA is discouraging, his FIP (4.01) looks more promising thanks to an increase in K/9 (8.96), and drop in his BB/9 (3.48) along with his increased ability to induce groundballs. Happ should be ready for spring training, but Toronto's acquisition of R.A. Dickey should result in Happ being moved back to the bullpen in a swingman role.
Happ had a disappointing season, but not because something drastically changed with his skill set. He's still got league average strikeout stuff and still walks far too many batters. The big difference came in his hitability: Happ's HR/9IP rate spiked from 0.82 in 2010 to 1.21 in 2011, while he gave up over a hit and a half more per nine innings than he did just one year prior. He'll be a huge wild card heading into 2012 drafts due to his inconsistency the past few years. Still, don't expect him to put up the strong numbers like he did in 2009.
Acquired from Philadelphia in the Roy Oswalt trade, Happ was a solid addition to the Astros' rotation. In 13 starts, Happ went 5-4 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.319 WHIP. While the walk rate is a little scary (4.8 BB/9IP), Happ is a steady, innings-eater type. His stuff doesn't dominate, but it should keep the team in the game long enough to earn his share of wins. He figures to hold down the No. 3 spot in the rotation for the Astros again in 2011. His strikeout rate increased to 7.6 K/9IP following the trade - if that sticks he could beat his projected ERA here.
Happ began last season in the Phillies' bullpen before moving into the rotation in late May. He quickly established himself as one of the team's more consistent starters and finished the season as a Rookie of the Year candidate. Happ features a high-80s fastball and keeps hitters off balance with good deception and use of his offspeed pitches. If Happ can make some strides with his control while also pushing his strikeout rate up towards the ratios he posted in the minors he could be in for another good season. However, if his walk rate slips and his BABIP normalizes (the .270 BABIP from last season is not likely to be repeated), Happ could find himself with an ERA well above the 2.93 ERA he posted in 2009.
Happ, who from late July until the end of the season was shifted between Triple-A Lehigh Valley and the Phillies roster, went 1-0 with a 3.69 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 26 strikeouts in 31.2 innings in his time with Philadelphia. Four of his eight appearances came as starts. His effectiveness was a bit of a surprise for Philadelphia, and the Phillies' staff even trusted him enough to give him three innings of relief duty in the NLCS against the Dodgers. Happ should compete with Kyle Kendrick, Carlos Carrasco and Andrew Carpenter in spring training for the No. 5 spot in the Phillies rotation and is worth taking a chance on late in drafts if he wins the job.
Happ was scratched from pitching in the Arizona Fall League because of what the Phillies are calling a "mild left elbow sprain." He's a decent prospect, but the Phillies shutting him down for the fall casts an ominous shadow over his near future.
A young lefthander in the Glendon Rusch mode, Happ has had his way with minor league hitters so far in his two-plus years as a pro. He will likely hit Philadelphia in 2007 after some time in Triple-A. Caution is advised: it often takes lefthanders who throw in the high 80s several years to become consistently effective.
More Fantasy News
Gets hit hard in loss
PMinnesota Twins
June 16, 2021
Happ (3-3) allowed six runs (five earned) on nine hits and a walk to go along with five strikeouts over four innings as he took the loss to the Mariners on Tuesday.
ANALYSIS
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Gives up four runs Thursday
PMinnesota Twins
June 10, 2021
Happ gave up four runs on eight hits and a walk while fanning two across five innings Thursday against the Yankees. He didn't factor into the decision.
ANALYSIS
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Shelled in no-decision
PMinnesota Twins
June 3, 2021
Happ allowed five earned runs on nine hits while striking out two across five innings in the loss to the Royals on Thursday. He did not factor into the decision.
ANALYSIS
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Picks up third victory
PMinnesota Twins
May 29, 2021
Happ (3-2) earned the win Saturday against the Royals after allowing two runs on three hits with five strikeouts and two walks over five innings.
ANALYSIS
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Fans 10 in no-decision
PMinnesota Twins
May 24, 2021
Happ didn't factor into the decision Sunday against Cleveland after giving up four runs on eight hits and a walk while striking out 10 across six innings.
ANALYSIS
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