Trevor Cahill
Trevor Cahill
31-Year-Old PitcherSP
Los Angeles Angels
2019 Fantasy Outlook
After reviving his career as a reliever in 2016 and showing flashes of utility in 2017, Cahill lowered his ERA by more than one run and BB/9 by more than one walk. The sinkerballer fixed his homer problems, posting another elite groundball rate. He quietly posted a career-high swinging-strike rate (11.7%) by adding better snap to his curveball and refining his changeup to tame lefty hitters. Cahill likely would punch out more batters by getting ahead in counts more and with better sequencing (just a 57.6% first-pitch strike rate). Of course, the injury-prone Cahill missed time with an elbow impingement, an Achilles issue and a muscle problem in his back. He may be a "five and dive" type in a best-case scenario, but that's not the worst thing in the world. Cahill should fill a spot in the Angels' starting rotation in 2019 after signing a one-year deal, and he'll be a candidate to round out a deep-league pitching staff once the higher-upside options are off the board. Read Past Outlooks
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$Signed a one-year, $9 million contract with the Angels in December of 2018.
Early exit against Rangers
PLos Angeles Angels
April 15, 2019
Cahill didn't factor into the decision in Monday's 12-7 loss to the Rangers, giving up four runs on five hits and two walks over four innings while striking out two.
Shin-Soo Choo and Joey Gallo took him deep in the third inning, but Cahill wasn't sharp from the jump, throwing only 10 first-pitch strikes to the 20 batters he faced. The right-hander will carry a 4.50 ERA and 18:4 K:BB through 22 innings into his next start Saturday, at home against the Mariners.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .255 425 94 46 95 22 3 11
Since 2017vs Right .239 496 111 44 105 20 2 18
2019vs Left .368 42 5 2 14 3 1 3
2019vs Right .111 48 13 2 5 2 0 2
2018vs Left .243 211 50 18 46 12 1 3
2018vs Right .212 239 50 23 44 8 1 5
2017vs Left .241 172 39 26 35 7 1 5
2017vs Right .301 209 48 19 56 10 1 11
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
ERA at Home
ERA at Home
ERA at Home
ERA at Home
Since 2017Home 1.90 0.98 104.0 10 1 0 9.4 2.8 0.9
Since 2017Away 6.51 1.68 112.0 2 7 0 7.7 4.7 1.5
2019Home 3.00 1.00 6.0 1 0 0 12.0 1.5 1.5
2019Away 5.06 1.06 16.0 0 1 0 5.6 1.7 2.3
2018Home 1.84 0.91 63.2 5 1 0 9.3 2.7 0.7
2018Away 6.41 1.58 46.1 2 3 0 6.6 4.3 0.6
2017Home 1.83 1.11 34.1 4 0 0 9.2 3.1 1.0
2017Away 7.07 1.97 49.2 0 3 0 9.4 6.0 2.2
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Stat Review
How does Trevor Cahill compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
91.0 mph
Strand %
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
Cahill was off to a solid start to 2017, but was forced to the disabled list in mid-May with a right shoulder strain. At the time, he had a 3.27 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, supported by an impressive 30 percent strikeout rate, parlaying a 60 percent groundball rate into just three homers allowed in 41.1 frames. Cahill returned to the Padres' rotation on July 4, starting four games before being shipped to the Royals at the July trade deadline. Cahill started three games for Kansas City before control and home-run woes sent him to the bullpen. Cahill continued to struggle with the long ball after a second stint on the DL due to the shoulder, allowing six homers over his final 12 innings. Cahill's future looks to be as a mop-up long reliever, with the occasional spot start. Unless he regains his strikeout dominance with much better control, he's not a fantasy consideration.
Cahill chewed up innings for the Cubs in middle relief in 2016, making 50 appearances and finishing with a 2.47 ERA. Unfortunately, FIP tells a more accurate story, as Cahill sat at 4.35 in that indicator thanks to a 4.8 BB/9 and 0.96 HR/9. Not surprisingly, his ERA at home (2.05) was much better than his numbers on the road (3.34). Even when he showed signs of improvement with his home-run rate in the second half, that growth was accompanied by a lower strikeout rate (7.3 K/9) and still-elevated walk rate (4.0 BB/9). Although his performance graded out as replacement level last season, Cahill's pedigree and that he's relatively new to relief work should lead him into a competition for another 25-man roster spot. However, even though he signed a deal with the Padres, it seems like his days of being anything more than a spot starter are over. One path to further success for Cahill may include throwing more changeups, as opposing hitters hit .096 against his change with a meager .137 slugging percentage in 2016.
Cahill was a starter for most of his first six years in the league, but last year he found himself used mostly as a reliever, first by the Braves, and then by the Cubs, who picked him up in August. In 11 appearances with Chicago, Cahill was outstanding, amassing a 2.12 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, and 22:5 K:BB. Sure, that was over just 17 innings, but it's the best he's looked in several years, and the Cubs used him six more times in the postseason. He became a free agent after the season, but the Cubs liked what they saw and signed the big righty for another year in their bullpen. He's historically had a poor K/BB — in fact, his 2.25 K/BB last year was the best figure of his career. Again, small sample size, but if he's found something that he can use as a reliever, he could be looking at a second career after declining as a starter.
Once upon a time, Cahill looked like he was developing into a very strong starting pitcher. He logged 32 starts at age-21 and then 30-plus in each of the next three seasons with varying success, while also posting a consistently improving strikeout rate and an elite groundball rate. That mix should usually yield better and better results, but Cahill bottomed out in 2014 and eventually fell out of the rotation altogether. A 9.17 ERA through four starts landed him in the bullpen, where he put together a 3.04 ERA in 15 appearances before getting the Diamondbacks to put him back in the rotation. There he amassed a 5.58 ERA in 69 innings, suggesting that those first four starts may have had some merit. All told, last season's 17 starts of 6.31 ERA are too small of a sample to stick a fork in Cahill, but he's certainly trending in that direction. He'll be given an opportunity to compete for a rotation spot with the Diamondbacks in spring training.
Cahill was a bit of an enigma in 2013. His 3.99 ERA was inflated by a putrid June, in which he allowed 27 earned runs. His BABIP was sky-high that month (.393) and he was dealing with a hip injury which eventually sidelined him for all of July and half of August. However, Cahill posted a 2.80 ERA in his 20 appearances outside of June, and he will have a spot in the rotation as a sinkerballer in the hitter-friendly Chase Field.
With a complete game effort in his final start, Cahill reached the 200-innings mark in his first season with the D-Backs. His ability to induce grounders at a career-best rate (61.2%) with his heavy sinker was beneficial in Chase Field, and the move to the National League helped Cahill push his strikeout rate to 7.0 K/9, his third consecutive season with improvement in that department. Underneath that improvement is a 9.3 percent swinging-strike rate, an indication that the strikeout rate is sustainable and might even increase a bit more during his second season in Arizona. Keep in mind that Cahill is only 25, despite having four full seasons of big league experience under his belt.
Cahill's numbers took a big step back in 2011 on the heels of 2010's breakout, largely fueled by some leveling out of his BABIP figures. His walk and strikeout rates both increased at a nearly identical pace, with his K/9IP rate now on a three-year ascent since joining the A's back in 2009. His groundball rate continues to improve as well, and he'll need every bit of that following his trade to hitter-friendly Arizona in the offseason. While he'll enjoy pitching in the National League and can expect the increased strikeout rates associated with it, his career numbers away from Oakland (263.2 innings, 260 hits, 162:102 K:BB, 32 homers allowed, 4.71 ERA) should provide some caution.
Cahill's breakout season was a huge step forward from his 2009 season, largely attributed to a big reduction in hits allowed, fewer balls leaving the yard and some modest improvements in his command. He still lacks a dominant strikeout rate, fanning just 118 in 196.2 innings and his K:BB rate (118:63) is below average as well. Both figures, while still merely bordering on 'meh', were marked improvements over his 2009 season, but they did regress as the season wore on (55:35 K:BB rate in 101.2 innings after the All-Star break). A small step back wouldn't come as a huge shock, but it's easy to forget he was considered to be equal with Brett Anderson coming up through the A's system before their very divergent 2009 seasons.
Like fellow rookie Brett Anderson, Cahill entered spring training with little experience at the Double-A level but earned a rotation spot with a solid spring. Unfortunately for Cahill, the similarities ended there as Cahill failed to match the success that Anderson showed in his rookie season. Cahill struggled with his command, walking 72 and fanning just 90 in 178.2 innings. Equally disappointing were the 27 home runs allowed, as his ability to keep the ball on the ground was a hallmark of his ascent through the minors. His post All-Star break numbers were nearly identical to his early-season numbers, and he'll continue to struggle until he improves his control. Cahill will be a part of the A's rotation in 2009, but he's not nearly as polished as Anderson at this point.
Cahill figures to pair with Brett Anderson as the next great 1-2 punch at the front of the A's rotation. Cahill continued to pitch well, posting solid numbers (124.1 innings, 76 hits, 136:50 K:BB ratio split between two levels), although his control waned a bit at Double-A (19 walks in 37 innings). That's digging pretty deep to find a flaw, and there's a ton to like here, including a real nice ability to keep the ball on the ground (2.43 G/F rate, five homers allowed in 2008).
More Fantasy News
Lines up for two step
PLos Angeles Angels
April 14, 2019
Cahill will make his next scheduled start Monday against the Rangers in Texas, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
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Angels-Cubs postponed
PLos Angeles Angels
April 14, 2019
Cahill won't make his scheduled start Sunday after the Angels' game against the Cubs was postponed due to inclement weather in Chicago, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports.
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Eight whiffs in first win
PLos Angeles Angels
April 9, 2019
Cahill (1-1) picked up the win Monday, allowing two runs on five hits and a walk over six innings while striking out eight in a 5-2 victory over the Brewers.
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Strong effort in no-decision
PLos Angeles Angels
April 2, 2019
Cahill didn't factor into the decision in Tuesday's 2-1 loss to the Mariners, allowing one run on three hits over six innings while striking out five.
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Takes loss in first start
PLos Angeles Angels
March 28, 2019
Cahill (0-1) got the loss against the Athletics on Thursday, giving up four earned runs on six hits over six innings, striking out three and walking one as the Angels fell 4-0.
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