Matt Harvey
Matt Harvey
29-Year-Old PitcherSP
Cincinnati Reds
2018 Fantasy Outlook
Not long ago, Harvey was one of the most sought-after arms in fantasy baseball. After entering the league in 2012, he posted a gleaming 2.53 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 9.5 K/9 from 2012-15 despite missing the 2014 season to Tommy John surgery. However, 2016 saw Harvey take a turn for the worse, and his decline continued in 2017. A nagging shoulder injury limited him to just 19 appearances last season, marking the second straight year in which he pitched fewer than 100 innings. Batters hit a lofty .291 against Harvey as his fastball appeared completely flat, with his FIP reaching a career-high 6.37. Harvey didn't make things easier for himself with his control, or lack thereof, as he posted a dismal 10.4 percent walk rate. He figures to be in the rotation, but the honeymoon in fantasy is long over. Less volatile options can be found at his same price point. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a one-year, $5.625 million deal with the Mets in January of 2018, avoiding arbitration.
Takes no-decision Tuesday
PCincinnati Reds
September 25, 2018
Harvey allowed three runs on six hits and no walks across five innings during Tuesday's 4-3 loss to the Royals. He struck out six and did not factor in the decision.
Harvey was again hurt by the long ball as he gave up a two-run home run to Ryan O'Hearn, bringing his season total to 27 home runs allowed. The start was the 29-year-old's last of 2018. He finishes the season with a 4.94 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 131:37 K:BB.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2016
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2016vs Left .297 758 136 62 201 41 5 33
Since 2016vs Right .275 738 138 47 185 27 4 23
2018vs Left .263 341 69 19 83 18 1 17
2018vs Right .279 322 62 18 82 14 2 10
2017vs Left .331 204 28 27 57 8 1 12
2017vs Right .264 227 39 20 53 7 0 9
2016vs Left .321 213 39 16 61 15 3 4
2016vs Right .282 189 37 9 50 6 2 4
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2016
ERA at Home
ERA at Home
ERA at Home
ERA on Road
Since 2016Home 5.38 1.29 150.2 10 7 0 7.9 2.8 1.9
Since 2016Away 5.41 1.58 189.2 6 19 0 6.7 2.9 1.2
2018Home 4.83 1.16 72.2 5 2 0 9.3 2.2 2.0
2018Away 5.03 1.43 82.1 2 7 0 6.1 2.1 1.2
2017Home 6.15 1.27 41.0 3 1 0 5.7 4.2 2.4
2017Away 7.14 2.03 51.2 2 6 0 7.1 4.9 1.7
2016Home 5.59 1.59 37.0 2 4 0 7.5 2.4 1.0
2016Away 4.37 1.38 55.2 2 6 0 7.3 2.4 0.6
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Stat Review
How does Matt Harvey compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
94.0 mph
Strand %
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
The Dark Knight suffered through many dark nights in a disastrous half season that eventually resulted in thoracic outlet syndrome surgery. After a glimmer of hope in a five-start stretch (2.25 ERA in 32 innings), Harvey failed to finish four innings in back-to-back starts and was placed on the DL with shoulder soreness. Shortly thereafter, we learned that he had symptoms consistent with TOS -- including tingling fingers when pitching -- and would need the surgery. While he is expected to be ready for spring training, there haven't been many strong returns from the surgery in its relatively limited history. It's unknown how long the symptoms were there in his 92.2 innings, but he suffered through career-worst marks virtually across the board, including lost velocity on every one of his four pitches. News of the tingling being gone is certainly positive, but those looking to buy need to be diligent about paying attention to spring reports regarding his velocity and command. It would be prudent to look elsewhere without a substantial discount.
An insane spring training rocketed Harvey’s price into the top-15 starting pitchers and he rewarded those risk-takers with the 11th-best season at the position. Lingering effects of Tommy John surgery sprung up at times (including three starts of seven earned runs apiece), but he always rebounded quickly and outside of those few bumps, he was one of the half-dozen best pitchers in the game. The only difference skills-wise from 2013 was a small drop in strikeouts, but he remained great in that area and still has best-in-league upside during any given season. With the innings reins loosened, 300 strikeouts are a legitimate upside. He probably won’t reach it (Kershaw’s 301 was the first such season since 2002), but Harvey is that kind of pitcher. Harvey is one of four pitchers (Tim Lincecum, Roy Oswalt, and Sonny Gray) since 2000 to log 400+ IP with a 3.00 or lower ERA in his first three seasons, and his 2.53 ERA is the best of the bunch. Bid with confidence!
Harvey took the league by storm in 2013 with one of the best seasons in the league, but the rug was pulled out from under him and everyone else when he missed the final month of that season and eventually underwent Tommy John surgery. That ended up costing him the 2014 season, but the timing is such that he will now be 16 months from surgery on Opening Day which puts him in line to be at least in the rotation by then if not starting that very first game. It is tough to know what to expect considering he last threw a pitch that mattered on August 24th, 2013, but that doesn’t mean he will come cheaply at the draft table. The fantasy community has become much more comfortable with Tommy John recovery cases, especially at the elite end of the spectrum, so you should expect to see Harvey’s name off the board relatively early. The pitching landscape mitigates some of the risk because even if he flames out, there will likely be a host of useful arms to pop up in-season. Meanwhile, the upside is an unquestioned ace, even if his innings are managed a bit throughout the season.
Harvey established himself as one of the premier starting pitchers in baseball in 2013, while also making an All-Star Game start in his home park and getting a supermodel girlfriend, before it all came crashing down. After struggling in two of his last three starts, Harvey was diagnosed with a partially-torn UCL in his right elbow. After considering rehab and a throwing program, Harvey opted for Tommy John surgery, which was performed on Oct. 22. Harvey now faces a 12-to-18 month recovery period and will likely miss the entire 2014 season. Speculation is that his power slider, which he throws close to 90 mph, may have contributed to the injury, so it will be interesting to see if Harvey changes his arsenal when he returns for the 2015 campaign.
Whe the Mets' season went south after the All-Star break, Harvey came riding in on his white horse to give the Amazin' faithful something to look forward to every five days. Harvey lived up to his status as either the team's No. 1 or No. 1A prospect following his late-July call up, posting a 2.73 ERA with a 70:26 K:BB and 42 hits allowed in 59.1 innings. Harvey made significant strides with his fastball command in his final month in the minors to go with his major-league-ready curveball, which led to his promotion. That fastball command was a big reason for the strikeouts and his .275 BABIP. Harvey will open 2013 in the Mets' rotation, and the only downside of his 2012 season is that he no longer has rookie eligibility.
Harvey, selected seventh overall in 2010 out of North Carolina, blazed through High-A St. Lucie, posting a 92:24 K:BB in 76 innings with a 2.37 ERA. He didn't experience the same success at Double-A Binghamton, but got better as he went along, excelling over his last nine starts. Harvey's fastball sits in the low-to-mid 90s, topping out about 97 mph, along with a slider, occasional curveball and change-up he added at Double-A. The development of that curveball may ultimately decide Harvey's ceiling, though, for now, he is projected to be a No. 2 starter in the majors. If he is unable to find consistency with that pitch, look for him to end up as a closer.
Harvey, selected seventh overall last year out of UNC, signed too late to pitch for the Mets in 2010. Harvey's fastball sits in the low-to-mid 90s, topping out around 97 mph, along with a slider and curveball, though he is likely to develop and use that curveball as a professional as it looks to be a more dominant pitch. Harvey needs to work on adding a third pitch, likely a changeup, as well as improve his command and find a consistent release point. Harvey figures to start 2011 at High-A St. Lucie and if he masters the areas that he needs to work on, he could move quickly through the system.
More Fantasy News
Ruined by Brewers
PCincinnati Reds
September 19, 2018
Harvey (7-9) took the loss Wednesday, surrendering seven runs on seven hits and two walks over 5.1 innings while striking out five as the Reds fell 7-0 to the Brewers.
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Blanks Cubs in no-decision
PCincinnati Reds
September 15, 2018
Harvey didn't factor into the decision in Friday's 3-2 loss to the Cubs, allowing four hits and a walk over six scoreless innings while striking out six.
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Racks up 10 strikeouts in win
PCincinnati Reds
September 8, 2018
Harvey (7-8) picked up the win Saturday against the Padres, allowing two runs on four hits and three runs across six innings. He struck out a season-high 10 batters.
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Serves up two homers in loss
PCincinnati Reds
September 3, 2018
Harvey (6-8) took the loss Monday against the Pirates, allowing three runs on seven hits while striking out three across six innings.
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Hit hard by Brewers in no-decision
PCincinnati Reds
August 30, 2018
Harvey didn't factor into the decision in Wednesday's 13-12 extra-inning loss to the Brewers, surrendering five runs on 11 hits over four-plus innings while striking out six.
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