Matt Harvey
Matt Harvey
31-Year-Old PitcherSP
Kansas City Royals
2020 Fantasy Outlook
Harvey's days as a worthwhile lottery ticket may be over. After yet another disappointing campaign, it's now been five years since he was an effective pitcher, with his four straight bad seasons now outnumbering the three strong years that opened his career. His 2019 campaign was his worst yet, leaving little reason to have any faith in a bounceback this season. After winning a spot in the Angels' rotation, he struggled to a 7.50 ERA in 10 starts before suffering a back injury in late May. Once healthy, he made just two more starts before the Angels decided they'd seen enough and released him. He eventually signed a minor-league deal with Oakland but was never promoted to the big-league roster. There's little reason to believe a pitcher with a 5.65 ERA over the last four years will get many opportunities this year in his age-31 season, even if that pitcher is Matt Harvey. Read Past Outlooks
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$Signed a minor-league contract with the Royals in July of 2020.
Officially signs with Royals
PKansas City Royals  AAA
July 28, 2020
Harvey signed a minor-league deal with the Royals on Tuesday, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
The 31-year-old is unlikely to be anything other than organizational depth for the Royals this season unless he unexpectedly impresses while throwing at the team's alternate training site. His lowest ERA in the last four years was a 4.86 mark back in 2016, and he struggled to an awful 7.09 mark in 12 starts for the Angels last year.
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Pitching Stats
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2018
 
 
-1%
BAA vs LHP
2020
No Stats
2019
 
 
-13%
BAA vs RHP
2018
 
 
-6%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2018vs Left .271 467 89 37 114 28 3 22
Since 2018vs Right .273 462 81 29 114 19 2 18
2020vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2019vs Left .295 126 20 18 31 10 2 5
2019vs Right .258 140 19 11 32 5 0 8
2018vs Left .263 341 69 19 83 18 1 17
2018vs Right .279 322 62 18 82 14 2 10
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2018
 
 
-24%
ERA on Road
2020
No Stats
2019
 
 
-57%
ERA on Road
2018
 
 
-4%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2018Home 6.24 1.36 111.0 7 6 0 8.0 3.1 2.2
Since 2018Away 4.77 1.38 103.2 3 8 0 6.2 2.4 1.1
2020Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2019Home 8.92 1.75 38.1 2 4 0 5.6 4.7 2.6
2019Away 3.80 1.17 21.1 1 1 0 6.3 3.8 0.8
2018Home 4.83 1.16 72.2 5 2 0 9.3 2.2 2.0
2018Away 5.03 1.43 82.1 2 7 0 6.1 2.1 1.2
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Matt Harvey
Mound Musings: How to Handle the Inevitable Injuries
62 days ago
Brad Johnson shares injury observations we often read about and discusses his approach to handling how they affect pitchers, including Chris Sale, who’s out for an extended time after having Tommy John surgery.
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65 days ago
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The Z Files: Winning Tendencies, Part Four
89 days ago
Todd Zola continues his breakdown of last year's NFBC Main Event rosters and explains why he thinks Christian Yelich showed up on so few league-winning squads.
Mound Musings: In Search of Value
126 days ago
Brad Johnson features a few pitchers who have the potential to provide value when the season begins, including Yu Darvish, who, when firing on all cylinders, is a top-10-pitcher.
Bernie on the Scene: Social Distancing and Baseball
150 days ago
Bernie Pleskoff analyzes pitchers who impressed him in spring training, including Pittsburgh's Nick Burdi, and also discusses how he's dealing with social distancing.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
When Harvey made like Snake Plisken and escaped from New York, most analysts suggested that Cincinnati was the worst place for him to land. And given the ballpark, team context and general starting pitching woes, the consensus point of view made sense. But while it was a far cry from his "Dark Knight" peak days, Harvey stabilized with the Reds, posting a 4.50 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 128 innings. The only drawback for the Reds was that they weren't able to flip Harvey for a prospect at the trade deadline, given his pending free agency. Before the trade, Harvey was averaging 92.5 mph on his fastball and sinker; after working with the Reds, that climbed to 94.7 mph. He'll need to maintain that sort of velocity with the Angels if he's to have any chance of returning to prominence.
Not long ago, Harvey was one of the most sought-after arms in fantasy baseball. After entering the league in 2012, he posted a gleaming 2.53 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 9.5 K/9 from 2012-15 despite missing the 2014 season to Tommy John surgery. However, 2016 saw Harvey take a turn for the worse, and his decline continued in 2017. A nagging shoulder injury limited him to just 19 appearances last season, marking the second straight year in which he pitched fewer than 100 innings. Batters hit a lofty .291 against Harvey as his fastball appeared completely flat, with his FIP reaching a career-high 6.37. Harvey didn't make things easier for himself with his control, or lack thereof, as he posted a dismal 10.4 percent walk rate. He figures to be in the rotation, but the honeymoon in fantasy is long over. Less volatile options can be found at his same price point.
The Dark Knight suffered through many dark nights in a disastrous half season that eventually resulted in thoracic outlet syndrome surgery. After a glimmer of hope in a five-start stretch (2.25 ERA in 32 innings), Harvey failed to finish four innings in back-to-back starts and was placed on the DL with shoulder soreness. Shortly thereafter, we learned that he had symptoms consistent with TOS -- including tingling fingers when pitching -- and would need the surgery. While he is expected to be ready for spring training, there haven't been many strong returns from the surgery in its relatively limited history. It's unknown how long the symptoms were there in his 92.2 innings, but he suffered through career-worst marks virtually across the board, including lost velocity on every one of his four pitches. News of the tingling being gone is certainly positive, but those looking to buy need to be diligent about paying attention to spring reports regarding his velocity and command. It would be prudent to look elsewhere without a substantial discount.
An insane spring training rocketed Harvey’s price into the top-15 starting pitchers and he rewarded those risk-takers with the 11th-best season at the position. Lingering effects of Tommy John surgery sprung up at times (including three starts of seven earned runs apiece), but he always rebounded quickly and outside of those few bumps, he was one of the half-dozen best pitchers in the game. The only difference skills-wise from 2013 was a small drop in strikeouts, but he remained great in that area and still has best-in-league upside during any given season. With the innings reins loosened, 300 strikeouts are a legitimate upside. He probably won’t reach it (Kershaw’s 301 was the first such season since 2002), but Harvey is that kind of pitcher. Harvey is one of four pitchers (Tim Lincecum, Roy Oswalt, and Sonny Gray) since 2000 to log 400+ IP with a 3.00 or lower ERA in his first three seasons, and his 2.53 ERA is the best of the bunch. Bid with confidence!
Harvey took the league by storm in 2013 with one of the best seasons in the league, but the rug was pulled out from under him and everyone else when he missed the final month of that season and eventually underwent Tommy John surgery. That ended up costing him the 2014 season, but the timing is such that he will now be 16 months from surgery on Opening Day which puts him in line to be at least in the rotation by then if not starting that very first game. It is tough to know what to expect considering he last threw a pitch that mattered on August 24th, 2013, but that doesn’t mean he will come cheaply at the draft table. The fantasy community has become much more comfortable with Tommy John recovery cases, especially at the elite end of the spectrum, so you should expect to see Harvey’s name off the board relatively early. The pitching landscape mitigates some of the risk because even if he flames out, there will likely be a host of useful arms to pop up in-season. Meanwhile, the upside is an unquestioned ace, even if his innings are managed a bit throughout the season.
Harvey established himself as one of the premier starting pitchers in baseball in 2013, while also making an All-Star Game start in his home park and getting a supermodel girlfriend, before it all came crashing down. After struggling in two of his last three starts, Harvey was diagnosed with a partially-torn UCL in his right elbow. After considering rehab and a throwing program, Harvey opted for Tommy John surgery, which was performed on Oct. 22. Harvey now faces a 12-to-18 month recovery period and will likely miss the entire 2014 season. Speculation is that his power slider, which he throws close to 90 mph, may have contributed to the injury, so it will be interesting to see if Harvey changes his arsenal when he returns for the 2015 campaign.
Whe the Mets' season went south after the All-Star break, Harvey came riding in on his white horse to give the Amazin' faithful something to look forward to every five days. Harvey lived up to his status as either the team's No. 1 or No. 1A prospect following his late-July call up, posting a 2.73 ERA with a 70:26 K:BB and 42 hits allowed in 59.1 innings. Harvey made significant strides with his fastball command in his final month in the minors to go with his major-league-ready curveball, which led to his promotion. That fastball command was a big reason for the strikeouts and his .275 BABIP. Harvey will open 2013 in the Mets' rotation, and the only downside of his 2012 season is that he no longer has rookie eligibility.
Harvey, selected seventh overall in 2010 out of North Carolina, blazed through High-A St. Lucie, posting a 92:24 K:BB in 76 innings with a 2.37 ERA. He didn't experience the same success at Double-A Binghamton, but got better as he went along, excelling over his last nine starts. Harvey's fastball sits in the low-to-mid 90s, topping out about 97 mph, along with a slider, occasional curveball and change-up he added at Double-A. The development of that curveball may ultimately decide Harvey's ceiling, though, for now, he is projected to be a No. 2 starter in the majors. If he is unable to find consistency with that pitch, look for him to end up as a closer.
Harvey, selected seventh overall last year out of UNC, signed too late to pitch for the Mets in 2010. Harvey's fastball sits in the low-to-mid 90s, topping out around 97 mph, along with a slider and curveball, though he is likely to develop and use that curveball as a professional as it looks to be a more dominant pitch. Harvey needs to work on adding a third pitch, likely a changeup, as well as improve his command and find a consistent release point. Harvey figures to start 2011 at High-A St. Lucie and if he masters the areas that he needs to work on, he could move quickly through the system.
More Fantasy News
Nearing deal with Royals
PKansas City Royals  AAA
July 23, 2020
Harvey is close to signing a minor-league deal with the Royals, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com reports.
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No interest from Mets
PFree Agent  AAA
April 5, 2020
The Mets are not interested in a reunion with Harvey, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
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Recent workout with Toronto
PFree Agent  AAA
March 13, 2020
Harvey had a tryout with the Blue Jays sometime in the last "several weeks," Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports.
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No immediate call-up from minors
POakland Athletics  AAA
September 9, 2019
Harvey will not be joining the Athletics for the moment despite the fact Triple-A Las Vegas' season has concluded, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
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Solid first pair of relief stints
POakland Athletics  AAA
September 2, 2019
Harvey fired two scoreless innings during which he allowed a hit and a walk while recording three strikeouts in his first two relief appearances for Triple-A Las Vegas on Saturday and Sunday.
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