Jordan Zimmermann
Jordan Zimmermann
32-Year-Old PitcherSP
Detroit Tigers
Out
Injury Abdomen
Est. Return 2/1/2019
2018 Fantasy Outlook
Zimmermann's slight semblance of fantasy relevance took another hit in 2017, as the veteran hurler turned in a career-worst 6.08 ERA over 160 innings. His exorbitant ERA was the worst mark in the majors among starting pitchers who threw at least 150 innings. Three years removed from an All-Star campaign in which he posted a 2.66 ERA and 22.8 strikeout rate, Zimmermann looked like a shell of his former self this past season. Though he still had decent zip on his fastball (roughly 93 mph average velocity), the 31-year-old saw his strikeout rate fall to a career-low 14.5 percent and he was squared up for a career-worst 1.63 HR/9. Zimmermann is a rapidly declining asset but is still owed a hefty $74 million over the final three years of his contract. While he'll likely be counted upon to eat up innings in 2018 for the rebuilding Tigers, he can be left off your fantasy radar as it seems Zimmermann's best days are long behind him. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a five-year, $110 million contract with the Tigers in November of 2015.
Undergoes core surgery
PDetroit Tigers
Abdomen
October 11, 2018
Zimmermann underwent successful core muscle repair surgery Thursday.
ANALYSIS
This comes as a bit of a surprise, as there had been no mention of any injury prior to the procedure. Dr. William Meyers performed the surgery in Philadelphia, noting afterwards that Zimmermann should be ready for spring training. The veteran right-hander turned in a 4.52 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 111:26 K:BB across 25 starts (131.1 innings) for the Tigers in 2018.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-4%
BAA vs LHP
2018
 
 
-6%
BAA vs LHP
2017
 
 
-6%
BAA vs RHP
2016
 
 
-17%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2016vs Left .285 861 146 51 226 42 10 37
Since 2016vs Right .297 858 134 45 236 47 9 34
2018vs Left .261 290 57 18 70 12 3 15
2018vs Right .277 266 54 8 70 11 3 13
2017vs Left .322 360 57 22 106 23 2 15
2017vs Right .304 353 46 22 98 18 4 14
2016vs Left .255 211 32 11 50 7 5 7
2016vs Right .309 239 34 15 68 18 2 7
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-26%
ERA on Road
2018
 
 
-1%
ERA on Road
2017
 
 
-17%
ERA on Road
2016
 
 
-62%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2016Home 5.99 1.41 204.1 14 17 0 6.2 1.9 1.7
Since 2016Away 4.45 1.40 192.1 10 11 0 6.6 2.5 1.5
2018Home 4.54 1.21 73.1 4 5 0 7.5 1.5 1.8
2018Away 4.50 1.33 58.0 3 3 0 7.8 2.2 2.0
2017Home 6.66 1.53 77.0 5 7 0 5.6 2.0 1.5
2017Away 5.53 1.57 83.0 3 6 0 6.0 2.9 1.7
2016Home 7.00 1.52 54.0 5 5 0 5.2 2.3 1.8
2016Away 2.63 1.21 51.1 4 2 0 6.1 2.1 0.5
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Stat Review
How does Jordan Zimmermann compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
K/BB
4.27
 
K/9
7.6
 
BB/9
1.8
 
HR/9
1.9
 
Fastball
91.2 mph
 
ERA
4.52
 
WHIP
1.26
 
BABIP
.302
 
GB/FB
1.01
 
Strand %
72.5%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
Zimmermann just suffered his worst season ever in 2016. The real question at this point is how much of it was injury-related and how much was a degradation of skills? His 3.66 ERA in 2015 might push you closer to degradation, but his strikeout and walk rates that year were completely in line with his 2011-13 seasons while his 2014 stands out as a career year. The one key change in 2015 was his career-worst home run rate (1.1 HR/9) and it was even a tick worse in 2016 at 1.2 HR/9. Neck and lat injuries might have been at play in the career-low 15 percent strikeout rate and the spike in walk rate to six percent, his highest since 2009. Zimmermann had a 3.24 ERA through 13 starts, before he allowed 11 earned runs in 9.2 innings in two starts before the neck injury and another 15 earned runs in 9.2 innings the rest of the way with a second DL stint mixed in. A healthy Zimmermann should yield something close to a 4.00 ERA in his age-30 campaign.
Zimmermann didn't exactly have the kind of season he hoped for heading into free agency. Although his fastball was down a tick, he still averaged 93 mph, and there was no other obvious sign of decreased effectiveness in his arsenal. Still, his ERA and FIP both soared by a run or more, his home run rate spiked to a career-high 1.07, and his K/9 rate tumbled back down into the sevens after a career-high 8.2 in 2014. If he's able to rebound, there's no reason to think he won't be a solid mid-rotation starter once again, but six years removed from Tommy John surgery, the clock could be ticking on his new elbow ligament, and the slight drop in velocity might be a harbinger of rough times ahead. The Tigers signed him to a five-year, $110 million contract in the offseason, however, confident in his ability to return to form and slot in behind Justin Verlander in their rotation.
Zimmermann has become the workhorse of the Nationals' staff, averaging 203 innings and 15 wins over the last three seasons while producing consistently very-good-to-excellent ratios. His K/9 rate even spiked up to a career-best 8.2, giving him more juice than expected in five-category leagues, and while Stephen Strasburg has the shinier pedigree and gaudier strikeout numbers, it's Zimmermann that opposing hitters seem to dread facing the most, an opinion backed up by his September no-hitter. Although he continues to toy around with a changeup, he relied even more heavily than usual on his mid-90s fastball and vicious slider last year, and with free agency looming, he'll have plenty of motivation to gun for his first 20-win campaign. Given his contract status, there's a chance he could get dealt before spring training, but there aren't many teams that can provide him with the offensive and defensive support that the Nats can, so a trade wouldn't likely improve his value. In all likelihood, Zimmermann will be leading the club back into the postseason hunt in 2015.
With Stephen Strasburg unable to buy a win and Gio Gonzalez taking a step back in 2013, it was Zimmermann who took his turn as the Nationals' staff ace and set career highs in innings, wins, total strikeouts and walk rate. Somewhat amazingly, all four of his pitches (fastball, slider, curveball and changeup) showed a positive run expectancy last year, which was the main engine of his success more than any one dominant pitch. He won't challenge the 200-strikeout mark, which keeps him from being an elite fantasy starter, but Zimmermann is solidifying his spot near the top of the next tier of pitchers.
The Nationals took the shackles off Zimmermann in 2012 and his numbers showed no regression, as his walk and strikeout rates were almost identical to the season before. He pounds the strike zone with plus stuff, and while that has not translated into elite numbers, he does not need to reach that level in a rotation that already features two aces in Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez. If Davey Johnson starts letting him go a little deeper into games his win total might pick up a bit, but otherwise expect more of the same from Zimmermann.
Zimmermann was the Nationals' most consistent starting pitcher during the 2011 season. He got stronger as the season progressed, something that is typical for pitchers on the mend from Tommy John surgery. He was shut down in September because he reached his innings limit. Zimmermann’s control was impeccable (1.73 BB/9IP) locating his fastball (93.3 mph), slider, curveball and occasional change-up. However, he was somewhat lucky concerning his HR/FB ratio (5.9 percent). His flyball tendencies should lead to more home runs next season, and a slightly higher ERA will likely follow.
Zimmermann's return from Tommy John surgery was a resounding success, as other than a spike in his HR/9IP rate his numbers were remarkably similar in seven 2010 starts to what he put up before getting hurt. In short, the surgery just put his career on pause for 12 months and didn't appear to set back his development, which is excellent news for a team trying to build around its young rotation. With Stephen Strasburg taking his own turn under the knife, Zimmermann will likely be the Nationals' No. 1 starter in 2011, which means you should expect solid numbers everywhere but in the wins category.
Zimmermann posted exceptional numbers for a rookie, even if his ERA didn't reflect it. Any kid who can strike out better than a batter an inning with a better than 3.0 K/BB ratio, and who isn't particularly flyball prone to boot, has a chance to be someone very special. Unfortunately, he won't get a chance to show how special until at least late 2010 thanks to Tommy John surgery, but assuming he eventually regains his form he'll pair up with Stephen Strasburg down the road to give the Nats a truly scary young pitching duo at the head of their rotation.
Zimmermann had no problem adjusting to full season ball in 2008, making it all the way up to Double-A and maintaining a strikeout-an-inning pace, while keeping the ball down in the strike zone and not walking too many batters. Given their recent history with their top pitching prospects you can expect Zimmermann to make his big league debut in 2009 but unlike previous hurlers like Ross Detwiler, Zimmermann might actually be ready to hold his own in the majors. He's got three quality pitches including a plus slider, and it's entirely possible that he'll head into spring training camp in 2010 as the Nationals de facto ace.
The second-round pick had a great 2007 debut in Rookie ball, displaying better-than-expected control to go along with a very good slider and two other quality pitches. He's a few years away from regular major league duty, but as the Nationals showed last year with Ross Detwiler, the organization isn't afraid to give its top prospects a late-season cup of coffee to let them know what's ahead of them. Assuming Zimmerman doesn't suffer a setback in his first exposure to full season ball, he could make his big league debut this September even if he's not ready for a regular spot until 2010.
More Fantasy News
Escapes with no-decision against Brewers
PDetroit Tigers
September 29, 2018
Zimmermann didn't factor into the decision in Friday's 6-5 loss to the Brewers, giving up five runs on eight hits and two walks over four innings while striking out four.
ANALYSIS
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Steady in no-decision Saturday
PDetroit Tigers
September 22, 2018
Zimmermann did not factor into the decision Saturday despite allowing only two runs in seven innings against the Royals. He gave up three hits (including a home run) and two walks while striking out five.
ANALYSIS
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Allows five runs in loss
PDetroit Tigers
September 17, 2018
Zimmermann (7-8) allowed five runs on seven hits and two walks over 3.2 innings to take the loss Monday against the Twins. He struck out two.
ANALYSIS
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Serves up three homers
PDetroit Tigers
September 11, 2018
Zimmermann (7-7) took the loss against the Astros on Tuesday, allowing five runs (four earned) and six hits over five innings. He struck out three and walked one.
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Blanks White Sox for seventh win
PDetroit Tigers
September 6, 2018
Zimmermann (7-6) picked up the win in Wednesday's 10-2 rout of the White Sox, scattering two hits and a walk over five scoreless innings while striking out three.
ANALYSIS
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