Todd Frazier
Todd Frazier
32-Year-Old Third Baseman3B
New York Mets
2018 Fantasy Outlook
While a .225 average is never a desired commodity, it can be palatable if it carries along a boatload of homers, double-digit steals and the associated run production. That describes Frazier’s 2016 campaign. Unfortunately, in 2017, his average slipped to .213, homers fell from 40 to 27 and he only nabbed four bags compared to 15 the previous season. Even a move to the Bronx didn’t help. as the 31-year-old righty hit just .222 with 11 homers over 66 games in pinstripes, losing playing time to Chase Headley down the stretch. Frazier’s contact rate improved a little over 2016, but his .226 BABIP torpedoed his average. On paper, a BABIP rebound is possible as his line drive and hard hit rates portend better results. However, last season’s mark was following the previous year’s .236, so expecting a significant improvement is risky. Frazier’s price will be seriously depressed, making him a target for rosters with a heavy batting average buffer or for formats which deemphasize average. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a two-year, $17 million contract with the Mets in February of 2018.
Sits against Scherzer
3BNew York Mets
September 20, 2018
Frazier is not in the lineup Thursday against the Nationals.
Frazier is 0-for-8 with a trio of strikeouts in his career against Max Scherzer, so he'll give way to Jose Reyes at the hot corner for Thursday's series opener with Scherzer getting the ball for the Nationals. Look for Frazier to rejoin the lineup Friday.
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Batting Stats
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Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2016
Since 2016vs Left .746 391 55 25 60 7 .198 .299 .447
Since 2016vs Right .758 1281 160 60 172 21 .227 .323 .435
2018vs Left .534 122 9 3 8 4 .168 .254 .280
2018vs Right .785 308 43 15 50 5 .243 .325 .461
2017vs Left .883 139 27 12 30 1 .207 .331 .552
2017vs Right .736 437 47 15 46 3 .215 .348 .388
2016vs Left .803 130 19 10 22 2 .217 .308 .496
2016vs Right .758 536 70 30 76 13 .227 .301 .457
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2016
OPS on Road
Even Split
OPS on Road
OPS on Road
Since 2016Home .680 800 91 35 101 16 .199 .295 .385
Since 2016Away .824 872 124 50 131 12 .240 .337 .487
2018Home .712 190 19 10 28 3 .214 .289 .423
2018Away .715 240 33 8 30 6 .228 .317 .398
2017Home .611 288 29 9 32 3 .165 .302 .309
2017Away .932 288 45 18 44 1 .261 .385 .546
2016Home .717 322 43 16 41 10 .218 .293 .425
2016Away .813 344 46 24 57 5 .233 .311 .502
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Stat Review
How does Todd Frazier compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
Last season was a mixed bag of results for Frazier. On the good side of the ledger; he set career highs in home runs, walk rate, runs scored and RBI. On the bad side of the ledger; a career-worst batting average and strikeout rate. Those two normally go hand in hand, but throw in a career-high flyball rate and the poor guy never had much of a chance to hit for a good average. He pulled a lot of flyballs on his way to 40 home runs, with a high HR/FB ratio helping -- he only hit 21 doubles, making his 2015 total of 43 doubles look like an outlier. The steals from the third baseman help offset the damage from his batting average, and if he manages to make more consistent contact and hit near the league average, Frazier could return to among the fantasy elite.
Frazier's trade to the White Sox in December cements the notion that the Reds are in for the long-term overhaul, rather than attempting a two-year fix. While last year's trade deadline was probably the time to get the most for him — Frazier hit just 10 homers after the break and had an OPS below .700 — they still might have sold at his peak. The good news for Frazier is that in Chicago he landed in a pretty good place to hit, though he's unlikely to fully replicate the home cooking he had in Cincinnati. Over the last three years, Frazier has 51 homers in Great American Ballpark and just 32 on the road.
One of the shames of the 2014 season for the Reds is that they wasted the breakout seasons of Frazier and Devin Mesoraco. But was this season Frazier's peak, or one of a few more that we can expect in the future? Many of the underlying metrics suggest that this is his level -- his strikeout and walk rates have been remarkably stable the last three years, and his ISO was actually higher in 2012 when he first established himself as a regular player. The only stat that appears to be an outlier was his 20 stolen bases -- even in the minors he had never run that often. Assuming that Joey Votto is healthier this year, the Reds will finally leave Frazier at third base rather than move him all over the diamond, but you'll have the capability of slotting him at first if you'd like, which may be more of an advantage than in previous years, considering the state of the first base pool.
Some regression was expected in Frazier's stat line in his second full season in the big leagues, but instead the pendulum fully swung from lucky to unlucky, as his BABIP dropped from .320 down to .271. But bad luck can't fully explain Frazier's drop-off, as he continued to have a poor contact rate (76%) and his ISO dropped from .225 down to .173. To contend in 2014, the Reds need more from their right-handed hitters, and Frazier in particular. He may never exceed his 2012 rate stats, but he needs to approach them to be viable beyond this season.
Frazier rode the extended playing time provided by injuries to Scott Rolen and Joey Votto to a second place finish in the NL Rookie of the Year voting, though a September fade (.181/.241/.264 in 72 at-bats) might have cost him the award. With Rolen likely to retire, Frazier is finally slated to have one position all to himself at third base. With a .320 BABIP and 76 percent contact rate last year, Frazier's .273 batting average is a likely candidate to decline in 2013, but that change could be counter-balanced, at least in terms of his fantasy value, by the increased playing time and the rise in counting stats that comes along with that. Frazier will be 27 in 2013, so this is pretty close to as good as it gets for him.
While repeating Triple-A in 2011, Frazier made enough gains to at least give some hope that he could be a major league bench player, if not a regular. As with teammate Juan Francisco, Frazier has some power potential with a less-than-optimal batting eye. He's never going to be a plus defender, though it appears as if he might be able to hold his own at third base. What might end up happening is that he'll platoon with Francisco at third base while occasionally filling in elsewhere. That scenario might not kick in until the second half of 2012 if not the start of 2013, with Scott Rolen under contract for another season.
Frazier took a step back last year at Triple-A Louisville, nearly doubling his strikeout rate while dropping in batting average by 40-plus points. He regressed enough to the point that the Reds didn't make him one of their September callups, instead choosing to keep him off the 40-man roster. Frazier's other problem is that he's without a position, having washed out at shortstop and second already. He split time between left field, third base and first base with Louisville last season, and probably projects best as an outfielder, where his value is limited. A return engagement in Louisville seems in the cards for Frazier.
Though Frazier is considered by many to be the Reds' top prospect, his long-term value is muted by a lack of positional value. Once drafted as a shortstop, Frazier has played third, left field and some second base. They worked with him on the latter position this offseason, only to state that he'll open 2010 as Triple-A Louisville's left fielder. As a middle infielder, he would be a plus-bat, but as a corner outfielder he's only average.
A first-round supplemental pick in 2007, Frazier has hit at every professional level, including the Hawaii Winter League (.295/.375/.547) in 2008. The bigger issue for Frazier is what position he'll end up playing - most scouts and analysts suggest that he won't be able to stick at shortstop - third base or a corner outfield spot is more likely.
More Fantasy News
Heads to bench after walkoff homer
3BNew York Mets
September 13, 2018
Frazier is not in the lineup for Game 2 of Thursday's doubleheader against the Marlins, Anthony DiComo of reports.
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Drills walkoff homer
3BNew York Mets
September 13, 2018
Frazier went 1-for-3 with a solo home run and a walk in Thursday's 4-3 win over Miami during Game 1 of a doubleheader.
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Hits bench for first game
3BNew York Mets
September 12, 2018
Frazier is not starting the first game of Wednesday's doubleheader against the Marlins.
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Blasts grand slam in win
3BNew York Mets
August 29, 2018
Frazier went 2-for-5 with a grand slam and an additional RBI in Wednesday's win over the Cubs.
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Goes deep in second straight game
3BNew York Mets
August 23, 2018
Frazier went 1-for-4 with a solo homer in Thursday's 3-1 loss to the Giants.
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