Aaron Ashby

Ashby began experiencing left shoulder discomfort in August of 2022, exactly four weeks after he signed a five-year, $20.5 million pre-arbitration contract extension with the Brewers. That shoulder issue began rearing its ugly head again in the spring of 2023, eventually leading to April 7 season-ending surgery. He was able to fit in a minor-league rehab assignment at the tail end of the 2023 campaign but surrendered 14 runs -- 12 earned -- on seven hits and 14 walks over seven innings (seven appearances) between High-A Wisconsin, Double-A Biloxi and Triple-A Nashville. Ashby is expected to be ready for the 2024 major-league season and still presumably possess a nasty slider-changeup combo to pair with his mid-90s fastball, but it'll take a lot of trust to reach for him in any sort of fantasy setting this spring.

You want to look at his 2-10 record with a 4.44 ERA last season and just discard him into the scrapheap of your 2023 draft plans. Do so at your own peril because Ashby could bounce back in a big way this season. He still has that filthy slider that the league struggles to square up, but he ran into troubles last season with his changeup that the league had no trouble hitting in 2022 (.295) after struggling to hit it in 2021 (.167). The xBA on the pitch in 2021 said he was lucky, but the near 80-point gap in those two rates on the pitch in 2022 was simply unfair. The rest of Ashby's skillset holds up rather well if he can get his repertoire back under control. Milwaukee believes in the talent as they gave him a five-year contract with options in the midst of his summer struggles. The pieces for a successful 2023 are there if Ashby can get realigned this winter.

Ashby appears to be on track to be the Brewers' next high-end homegrown starting pitcher. The 23-year-old southpaw relies primarily on a 97-mph sinking fastball, a hard-breaking mid-80s slider and an upper-80s changeup with above-average drop. Given his fastball velocity and the fact that his top secondaries are thrown relatively hard, opposing hitters are in for an uncomfortable at-bat, as long as his command is on. His walk rate in the minors often hovered around 11 percent, which added reliever risk to his profile, but Ashby's 9.0 BB% in the majors gave us a glimpse of the upside when everything is clicking. While missing bats is a big part of Ashby's profile, he also showcased elite groundball tendencies at Triple-A (66.9%) and in the majors (61.3%). For context, Luis Castillo led all qualified pitchers with a 56.6 percent groundball rate last season. The Brewers will likely go with a six-man rotation if everyone is healthy, and from a talent and upside standpoint, Ashby is no worse than fourth in the pecking order.