Andrew Suarez

Some encouraging peripherals appeared to hint at good things for Suarez heading into his sophomore season despite his mediocre 4.49 rookie ERA. That positive regression never came, as both Suarez's peripherals and surface numbers regressed in 2019. His ERA jumped from 4.49 to 5.79 as he struck out just 16.9% of opposing batters while walking 9.5%. Those struggles came in a small sample of just 32.2 innings as the lefty failed to make the Opening Day roster and was demoted on three separate occasions. He also started just twice after starting 29 games as a rookie. Suarez's numbers at Triple-A Sacramento don't offer much reason for optimism, as he posted a 5.73 ERA and a 14.4 K% in 88 innings at that level. Now 27, Suarez looks like little more than an up-and-down reliever and would still be an unexciting back-end starter with a bounce-back season.

A stat like xFIP heavily regresses home-run numbers and suggests a player like Suarez is something close to a true-talent high-3.00s ERA pitcher. The problem is, Suarez's stuff is entirely pedestrian and there's little reason to think his home-run rate will regress toward the league average. The lefty finished last season with a well-above-average groundball rate (51.3%), but even so had a 1.29 HR/9. That number jumped to 1.49 when he didn't have AT&T Park dampening his opponents' power. Right-handers combined for a .286/.348/.504 line and a 43.6% hard-hit rate against Suarez. Suarez averages just over 92 mph with his fastball and only his changeup grades out as even average among his secondary offerings. The Giants will need Suarez to chew up innings in a rebuilding year, but he's a home streaming option at best, and even in home starts, his upside is limited (7.1 K/9 at home last season).

The Giants' 2015 second-round pick was promoted to Double-A Richmond in 2016, finishing with a 3.95 ERA in 19 starts. While the ERA left room for improvement, Suarez exhibited his excellent control in posting a 3.8 K/BB ratio. The southpaw relies mainly on his low-90s fastball and slider to attack the opposition, but he does mix in a changeup to keep hitters honest. He will undoubtedly start the year in the minors, but Suarez isn't too far away from the majors. He could put on the fast track if he gets off to a hot start in 2017.

Suarez moved swiftly through the minors after being drafted by the Giants this past summer, going from rookie ball to short season, and reaching High-A San Jose before year's end. He posted great numbers at all three levels. Like the player that was selected before him (Chris Shaw), Suarez was drafted to address a glaring need within the Giants' farm system; in this case, left-handed starters. At age 23, Suarez possesses excellent control and should progress through the minors quickly. He doesn't have huge upside, but could be a solid back-of-the-rotation starter. Those in keeper and dynasty leagues will want to aim a little higher.