Anthony Santander

Santander was a concern heading into the season because of the sharp increase in his strikeout rate in 2021 as he missed nearly 50 games with injuries. The additional curveball of the changes to Camden Yards made us wonder if 20 homers could ever happen again, and all he did was go out and obliterate his previous career high and hit 33 homers, including 7 at home as a righty. He even hit a comfy .269 at home, but really struggled away from Baltimore with a .212 average in other parks and was particularly bad from the left side of the plate on the road (.194.) His StatCast profile has a healthy shade of red in the right areas except for a below average chase rate and a league average walk rate. He has now hit just below league average in two consecutive seasons after hitting above it in the previous two, but you are targeting him for homers and RBIs while hoping for a batting average rebound. He would be a 40-homer threat in most any other ballpark in baseball.

Hopes were high for Santander, though 2020's breakthrough was obviously suspect. Unfortunately, Santander fell off across the board, though his production was likely hampered with lingering ankle soreness. Santander missed a month early with a sprained ankle, then sat out several games the rest of the season to manage residual soreness. His September was cut short with knee and hamstring woes. Santander posted the highest K% of his career as his contact on swings outside of the zone dropped 5%. His power drop resulted from a slight dip in fly balls and HR/FB along with more strikeouts. None were egregious, but the combination resulted in a career low ISO and wOBA since becoming a regular. Santander is ripe for a rebound, but not to 2020's level. He has the makings of a compiler (without speed), in a fledgling lineup and good park. Last season's injuries are a concern, but they lower the market price.

A Rule 5 draft pick a few years back, Santander has developed into a quality big-league ballplayer. He shaved six percentage points off his strikeout rate from 2019 to 2020 (to 15.2%). While that improvement did not show up in his batting average -- Santander's .261 BA in 2020 was an exact copy of his 2019 mark -- his rate power exploded. In fact, Santander's .575 SLG ranked 20th in MLB (min. 150 PA). He hit eight of his 11 homers at Camden Yards and the switch hitter struggled in a major way from the right side of the plate, slashing only .167/.219/.433 against left-handed pitching. He was significantly better versus LHP in 2019, so expect a rebound in that department. It's clear that Santander is one of Baltimore's better offensive players, and while he does not run, the bat clears the bar in most formats. He added to his BB rate last year, but it was still only 6.1%, so adjust accordingly in OBP leagues.

Santander didn't see significant time in the majors until June, but he ended up starting 92 games and posting a .773 OPS with 20 home runs for the Orioles. The juiced ball did not discriminate. His real-life value was dinged considerably by a low 4.7 BB%, and that number was close to what he showed at Triple-A, so there may be limited room for improvement there. Santander is a subpar defender and split his time fairly evenly between all three outfield spots. A Rule 5 pick in 2017, Santander debuted before he was ready, so keep that in mind when considering his pre-2019 numbers. The raw power is there for Santander to be relevant across the fantasy landscape, but he will need to make enough contact for that power to play, and a K-rate pushing 30% in September is reason for pause. This will be his age-25 season and he should have every chance to lock down a starting role in spring training.

An elbow injury in 2017 prevented Santander from spending the required amount of time on the active roster for a Rule 5 pick, so the Orioles were forced to keep him in the big leagues to start the 2018 campaign or send him back to Cleveland. Baltimore chose the former path, keeping him in the majors until mid-May. He was then sent to the minors for the rest of the season, spending the bulk of the year at Double-A, the level he likely would have been at had his career proceeded normally as he'd topped out at High-A in Cleveland's system. His numbers weren't particularly promising with Double-A Bowie, as he hit just .258/.293/.402 in 54 games. Santander projected as an average hitter for both contact and power, a profile which will likely see him back in the big leagues on merit at some point, but which may not be enough for a starting job at first base or left field.

While most teams pour resources into the international market, the Orioles largely ignore it and instead pour their resources into the Rule 5 draft each year. Santander was their big score in 2016. They stole him away from the Indians, but a strained elbow ligament limited him to just 46 days on the active roster last season, so he will need to be in the majors for 44 days in 2018 before he can be sent to Double-A or Triple-A to continue his development. He profiles as a bat-first left fielder, who could hit for a fairly high average while offering 20-plus homer power. The 23-year-old switch-hitter was able to get his first experience at Double-A last year on a rehab assignment, and was extremely successful in that 15-game sample. According to Baseball America, he draws Victor Martinez comps, and like Martinez, he may end up as a designated hitter at some point if his bat ends up being as good as some think.

A switch-hitting outfielder, Santander has been brought along slowly since being signed as a teenager out of Venezuela in 2011. The corner outfielder had his best season in the minors in 2016, slashing .290/.368/.494 with 20 home runs, 95 RBI and 10 steals in 128 games for High-A Lynchburg. He was third in the Carolina League in home runs, RBI and slugging percentage. The double-digit stolen base number makes Santander a particularly intriguing prospect, though it is worth noting he only had 18 steals combined in the previous four seasons. Still, his power stroke seems to have arrived, and his average has not dipped below .280 between Low-A and High-A thus far. That success led the Orioles to select him in the Rule 5 draft, which complicates matters. He will have to remain on Baltimore's active roster all season for them to retain his rights, which could mean he will be stashed on the bench for much of the year, as he is likely to be severely overmatched against big league pitching.