Brad Keller

Brad Keller

28-Year-Old PitcherSP
 Free Agent  
Free Agent
Out
Injury Shoulder
Est. Return 2/29/2024
2024 Fantasy Outlook
There was no outlook written for Brad Keller in 2024. Check out the latest news below for more on his current fantasy value.
RANKS
$Signed a one-year, $5.78 million contract with the Royals in January of 2023.
Managing thoracic outlet symptoms
PKansas City Royals  
Shoulder
September 19, 2023
Keller was placed on the 15-day injured list Wednesday due to symptoms associated with thoracic outlet syndrome.
ANALYSIS
Keller dealt with symptoms of thoracic outlet syndrome earlier this season while on the injured list with a shoulder impingement, and those symptoms apparently resurfaced since being reinstated from the injured list Sept. 9. The right-hander will finish 2023 having pitched in just 11 games, and he had a 4.76 ERA, 1.94 WHIP and 31:45 K:BB over 45.1 innings. He's scheduled to hit free agency during the offseason, but the injury will cloud his outlook for 2024.
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Pitching Stats
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2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
80
Last 10 Games
79
Last 5 Games
64
How many pitches does Brad Keller generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Brad Keller generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2021
 
 
-5%
BAA vs LHP
2023
 
 
-2%
BAA vs RHP
2022
 
 
-14%
BAA vs LHP
2021
 
 
-3%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2021vs Left .276 710 135 82 170 29 3 19
Since 2021vs Right .290 732 118 84 183 30 3 19
2023vs Left .262 109 16 23 22 7 0 1
2023vs Right .256 102 15 22 20 1 0 2
2022vs Left .254 286 47 28 65 8 2 9
2022vs Right .295 332 55 29 88 16 2 8
2021vs Left .301 315 72 31 83 14 1 9
2021vs Right .293 298 48 33 75 13 1 9
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2021
 
 
-7%
ERA on Road
2023
 
 
-54%
ERA on Road
2022
 
 
-19%
ERA at Home
2021
 
 
-15%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2021Home 5.33 1.59 152.0 6 18 1 7.1 4.3 1.1
Since 2021Away 4.97 1.66 166.2 11 12 0 7.2 5.0 1.0
2023Home 6.63 2.26 19.0 1 3 0 6.2 9.5 0.9
2023Away 3.08 1.67 26.1 2 1 0 6.2 8.5 0.3
2022Home 4.62 1.50 78.0 3 9 1 6.7 4.0 1.2
2022Away 5.69 1.51 61.2 3 5 0 6.4 3.2 1.0
2021Home 5.89 1.49 55.0 2 6 0 8.0 2.9 1.1
2021Away 5.03 1.78 78.2 6 6 0 8.1 5.3 1.3
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Stat Review
How does Brad Keller compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
0.69
 
K/9
6.2
 
BB/9
8.9
 
HR/9
0.6
 
Fastball
93.2 mph
 
ERA
4.57
 
WHIP
1.92
 
BABIP
.287
 
GB/FB
2.52
 
Left On Base
73.7%
 
Exit Velocity
82.3 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
5.4%
 
Spin Rate
2331 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
23.8%
 
Swinging Strike
8.1%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Brad Keller See More
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Keller began 2022 as a starter, posting a 4.93 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over 122.1 innings across 22 starts before he was bumped from the rotation. Things didn't get better as a reliever, as he posted a 6.23 ERA and 2.02 WHIP over 17.1 relief appearances. At 27 years old, there's some pressure for Keller to find a role, or he'll soon be passed by prospects. He had solid numbers in his first three seasons, but he's been subpar over the last two years. The right-hander doesn't give up a ton of hard contact, but his three primary pitches -- slider, fastball, sinker -- have been far more hittable than Statcast projections would expect. He won't overwhelm many hitters with a 94 mph fastball. His fantasy value is linked to if he can bounce back to claim a spot in the rotation to begin 2023.
Keller had a 3.50 ERA across his first three big-league campaigns, but he struggled mightily last year 5.39 ERA in 26 starts. The 26-year-old saw his strikeout rate rise over three percent to 19.6, but his walk rate also moved up to a career-worst 10.4 percent. His groundball rate also dropped to 47.8 percent after being over 50 percent his first three seasons. As a groundball pitcher that doesn't rely on strikeouts Keller's upside remains limited, but he could be a good rebound candidate given his success prior to 2021.
The results showed up for Keller in his third season in the big leagues, even if the way he garnered them was not as scripted. Keller spent the prior offseason talking about his desire to add a curveball to his repertoire and how the pitch was going to help him in his ongoing battle against lefties. That curveball never showed up in pitch tracking, but his slider usage jumped up quite a bit, so much so that it was two pitch events away from being his most-utilized pitch. The league hit .187 off his slider and .179 off his four-seam fastball, and the fact he threw those two pitches nearly 80% of the time is where the step forward came from. That said, the expected batting average on his fastball was .280, and the slider .248, so use those as a starting point when trying to gauge what a step back could look like.
Keller improved his innings count from 140.1 in 2018 to 165.1 in 2019, but was still shut down at the end of August as the Royals sought to limit his workload. The right-hander's ERA rose to 4.19 in his second year in the majors after he posted a 3.08 ERA in 2018. Keller improved his strikeout rate to 17.2% in 2019, but it was still the sixth-worst rate among qualified pitchers. The 24-year-old rode his sinker to one of the lowest home-run rates in the league, helping make up for the lack of dominance to an extent. Kauffman Stadium allowed the second-fewest home runs in baseball last season, but Keller's home-run rate was almost identical at home and on the road, which is a mark in his favor. Keller could finally see something close to a full season of work in the majors, but the low-end strikeout total and struggles to limit baserunners render him a streamer at best.
A Rule 5 pick last winter, Keller spent the first couple months in the Royals' bullpen before transitioning to a starting role. He was one of Kansas City's most effective arms down the stretch, posting a 2.25 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over his final eight starts (52 innings), bringing his season ERA down to a shiny 3.08. The right-hander achieved that mark despite a middling 6.2 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 -- his 7.9 K-BB% ranked 85th among 88 pitchers with 140 innings. What he lacked in terms of dominance he made up for with groundballs (54.4%), and in turn limiting homers (0.45 HR/9). While he does not have elite velocity, Keller's fastball graded out as one of the best among regular starters thanks to the pitch's movement. His slider was also above average according to FanGraphs' Pitch Values. If he could create a bigger velocity gap between his fastball and changeup, Keller could be something, but until then he'll be a risky, low-K arm on a bad team.
More Fantasy News
Returns from injured list
PKansas City Royals  
September 9, 2023
Keller (shoulder) was reinstated off the 60-day injured list Saturday.
ANALYSIS
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Moved to 60-day IL
PKansas City Royals  
Shoulder
August 16, 2023
Kansas City transferred Keller (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
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Ready for rehab assignment
PKansas City Royals  
Shoulder
August 14, 2023
Keller (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment Monday with Kansas City's affiliate in the Arizona Complex League.
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Making progress in recovery
PKansas City Royals  
Shoulder
August 7, 2023
Keller (shoulder) could begin a rehab assignment this week, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.
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Undergoing further testing
PKansas City Royals  
Shoulder
July 28, 2023
Keller's will receive further testing after his right shoulder discomfort returned, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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