Casey Mize

Casey Mize

29-Year-Old PitcherSP
San Diego Padres
2026 Stats
W-L
5-9
ERA
3.70
WHIP
1.11
K
107
SV
0
Rest-of-Season Projections
W-L
ERA
WHIP
K
SV
Unlock Our Projections
2026 Fantasy Outlook
In the context of being the first pick of the 2018 draft, Mize has been somewhat disappointing to this point in his career. However, he's also settled in as a fairly steady mid-rotation option at the MLB level, and 2025 was one of his best campaigns to date. The righty posted a 3.87 ERA and 1.27 WHIP across 149 innings, and he set a new career high with 139 strikeouts. Mize also set a new career best with 14 wins after coming into the year with only nine career wins across his first four seasons. The 28-year-old may never reach true ace status, with his career 7.47 K/9 capping his upside, but Mize still has some fantasy appeal heading into 2026. He should remain one of Detroit's top starters behind Tarik Skubal, and Mize's solid if not spectacular 2025 campaign gives him something to build on. If he does manage to miss a few more bats, the righty could take a step forward as a fantasy asset, though even a repeat of last year would provide some value. Read Past Outlooks
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RANKS
Rest of Season
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Overall Projection
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Overall Rank
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Dynasty
From Preseason
#283
ADP
League Majors
Bats R
Throws R
40 Man Yes
Height 6'3"
Weight 220
DOB 5/1/1997
Born Springville, AL
College Auburn
Drafted 1st Rd 2018 DET
Signed a one-year, $6.15 million contract with the Tigers in January of 2026. Traded to the Padres in August of 2026.
Takes no-decision Tuesday
PSan Diego Padres
September 8, 2026
Mize allowed three runs on four hits and a walk while striking out seven over 5.2 innings in a no-decision versus the Nationals on Tuesday.
Analysis
Mize came away without a win for the fourth outing in a row. He's allowed 18 runs (13 earned) over 17.1 innings in that span, though his seven strikeouts Tuesday were his most in a start since he was traded to the Padres. The right-hander has a 3.70 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 107:29 K:BB through 119.1 innings over 23 starts between San Diego and Detroit this season. He's projected to make his next start at Colorado.
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Pitching Stats
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2026 MLB Game Log
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
81
Last 10 Games
80
Last 5 Games
77
How many pitches does Casey Mize generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Casey Mize generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2024
 
 
-7%
BAA vs LHP
2026
 
 
-15%
BAA vs LHP
2025
 
 
-4%
BAA vs RHP
2024
 
 
-10%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2024vs Left .252 841 185 50 196 41 8 18
Since 2024vs Right .271 724 139 44 181 40 1 28
2026vs Left .214 276 61 16 55 15 1 5
2026vs Right .253 210 46 13 48 16 0 9
2025vs Left .268 339 79 18 85 17 4 8
2025vs Right .258 288 60 18 68 13 0 13
2024vs Left .275 226 45 16 56 9 3 5
2024vs Right .305 226 33 13 65 11 1 6
More Splits→ View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2024
 
 
-14%
ERA at Home
2026
 
 
-26%
ERA at Home
2025
 
 
-9%
ERA at Home
2024
 
 
-11%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2024Home 3.69 1.16 190.1 10 8 0 7.5 1.9 1.1
Since 2024Away 4.29 1.39 180.1 11 13 0 8.2 2.7 1.1
2026Home 3.15 0.97 60.0 2 3 0 8.0 1.8 0.9
2026Away 4.25 1.25 59.1 3 6 0 8.2 2.6 1.2
2025Home 3.68 1.21 73.1 8 2 0 7.4 2.1 1.4
2025Away 4.04 1.32 75.2 6 4 0 9.4 2.3 1.2
2024Home 4.26 1.30 57.0 0 3 0 7.3 1.7 0.9
2024Away 4.76 1.68 45.1 2 3 0 6.4 3.6 1.0
More Splits→ View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Casey Mize compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
3.69
 
K/9
8.1
 
BB/9
2.2
 
HR/9
1.1
 
Fastball
93.5 mph
 
ERA
3.70
 
WHIP
1.11
 
BABIP
.279
 
GB/FB
0.74
 
Left On Base
68.5%
 
Exit Velocity
82.7 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.7%
 
Spin Rate
2089 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
24.1%
 
Swinging Strike
10.9%
 
Prospect Rankings History
View Complete Casey Mize Prospect Ranking History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Casey Mize See More
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Casey Mize See More
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Mize has yet to fully live up to his potential as the first pick of the 2018 draft, and injuries have played a big role in slowing him down. The righty missed all of the 2023 campaign due to Tommy John surgery and again spent a chunk of the season on the injured list in 2024. This time around it was a hamstring strain that cost Mize about two months and limited him to 102.1 innings overall. That's actually the second-highest mark of Mize's career, behind the 150.1 innings he logged back in 2021. The 27-year-old has shown flashes of being a strong MLB starter, though he's yet to maintain it over long stretches of time, and he has a middling 4.36 ERA and 1.30 WHIP for his career, along with an uninspiring 6.99 K/9. The Tigers undoubtedly want to see Mize take the next step forward as a staff anchor alongside ace lefty Tarik Skubal, so the former should once again have a rotation spot heading into 2025. However, at some point Mize needs to turn his upside into actual production, and he's hard to trust in fantasy until that happens.
When healthy, Mize has looked like a solid MLB pitcher. However, an elbow injury cut his 2022 campaign short after only two starts, and then he missed all of 2023 due to Tommy John surgery. Back in 2021, Mize posted a 3.71 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 118 strikeouts across 150.1 innings in his first full season as starter for Detroit. The 26-year-old should have a rotation spot locked up heading into 2024, though the Tigers will undoubtedly limit his workload, and it's fair to expect some rust. Mize was drafted first overall back in 2018, so the talent is certainly there, and fantasy managers will be keeping a watchful eye on how he looks early in the season. However, the best bet for now is to temper expectations and probably not count on Mize for consistent production right away. He's still only made 39 starts at the MLB level, so even if he wasn't returning from a major surgery, the young righty would probably be a volatile option anyways.
After a promising 2021 campaign, Mize seemed primed for big things in 2022, but he only made two starts before getting shut down due to an elbow injury. He underwent Tommy John surgery in June and now seems likely to miss most if not all of 2023. It's a big blow for the Tigers, who drafted Mize first overall in 2018. His MLB debut season in 2020 wasn't great, as he posted 6.99 ERA and 1.48 WHIP across 28.1 innings. However, given a longer look in 2021, Mize pitched much better. He tallied a 3.71 ERA and 1.14 WHIP across 150.1 innings, though his 7.06 K/9 and 4.71 FIP suggested he wasn't overly dominant. Still, it was a good campaign overall, and given Mize's prospect pedigree, it's fair to think that he has another level yet to reach. That will just have to wait until 2024 and beyond, so fantasy managers can ignore Mize in standard leagues, though he still has plenty of upside in keeper and dynasty formats.
After a disappointing 2020, albeit only 28.1 innings, Mize rebounded to exhibit why the Tigers used the first overall pick in 2018 to secure his services. OK, he wasn't dominant, but he teased his potential and he's embarking on just his age-25 season. Detroit did a good job managing Mize's workload, giving him extra rest down the stretch. After compiling 150.1 frames last season, the kid gloves should be off. Mize needs to miss more bats as a 19.3 K% won't get it done, at least not if he's going to be a front-of-the-rotation guy. He throws five pitches with only his four-season fastball and slider topping a 10% swinging strike rate, and just barely at that. Five pitches are a lot to work with, so it's too early to give up on more whiffs. Maybe Mize's future is a mid-rotation innings eater. The cost to find out is reasonable and there should be opportunities to stream in a weak division.
Mize's rookie season was a disaster from a results standpoint, but at least he is healthy and his stuff is intact. If he were in a different organization, say Cleveland, he would be advised to lean on his filthy trio of offspeed pitches while cutting his fourseamer and sinker usage from a combined 52 percent to around 40 percent. Whether Mize and the Tigers will go that route remains to be seen, but he currently has the pitches to have sustained success, he just needs to optimize his pitch usage. He also struggled to throw his fastball for strikes, which led to a 9.8 BB% -- almost double the 5.6 BB% he logged in 2019 at Double-A. Improving his fastball command would help greatly if Mize is to have a post-hype breakout in his second season. We should never expect pitching prospects to shove as rookies, yet recency bias still tends to seep in when one understandably pitches like a rookie.
During Mize's final year at Auburn, he had a 2.25 ERA in his first 84 innings and a 7.01 ERA in his final 30 innings. In his first full year in pro ball, he had a 0.92 ERA in his first 78 innings and a 6.61 ERA in his final 31.1 innings. The first overall pick in 2018 has a very deep arsenal -- he added another breaking ball last year -- and his plus command allows him to be very efficient with his pitches. However, we're waiting for the 22-year-old righty to take the final step in his development and show that he can handle a MLB starter's workload. He missed a month in the middle of the year with a shoulder strain and was ominously shut down 16 days prior to the end of Double-A Erie's season. We know Mize can dominate minor-league hitters over the first few months of a season. His true test in 2020 will be pitching well over the final three months, and that test should come in the big-league rotation.
There was not much drama at 1-1 in 2018, as Mize had been rumored there for months and was indeed selected by Detroit, garnering a class-high $7.5 million bonus. A 6-foot-3 righty with a workhorse 220-pound frame, Mize has a deep, complex arsenal. He sits at 94-95 mph with his fastball, touching 96 in pro ball and 97 in college. His 88-mph splitter essentially works as his changeup, and is seen as his best pitch, grading anywhere from plus to double-plus, depending on when it was seen. He also throws a mid-80s cutter and a low-80s slider -- both of which will flash plus. Mize is known as a strike thrower with the potential for plus command, giving him true frontline upside. He battled arm issues in 2017 but stayed healthy in 2018 and was shut down at High-A in mid-August after reaching his innings limit. The Tigers will assign him to either High-A or Double-A. If he stays healthy he should be the first starting pitcher from his class to reach the majors.
More Fantasy News
Hit hard in Wednesday's loss
PSan Diego Padres
September 3, 2026
Mize (5-9) took the loss Wednesday as the Padres fell 7-3 to the Reds, coughing up four runs on five hits and a walk over four innings. He struck out four.
Analysis
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One poor frame in loss
PSan Diego Padres
August 28, 2026
Mize (5-8) took the loss against the Rays on Friday, allowing seven runs (two earned) on six hits and one walk with one strikeout over five innings.
Analysis
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In line to start Friday
PSan Diego Padres
August 26, 2026
Padres manager Craig Stammen said Wednesday that Mize (ankle) felt good after his bullpen session and will start Friday against the Rays, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports.
Analysis
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X-rays return clean
PSan Diego Padres
Ankle
August 23, 2026
Mize had X-rays on his sprained right ankle come back clean Sunday and hopes to make his next start, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports.
Analysis
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Diagnosed with ankle sprain
PSan Diego Padres
Ankle
August 22, 2026
Mize was removed from Saturday's game against the Twins in the third inning due to a right ankle sprain.
Analysis
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Interest from Atlanta oversold
PSan Diego Padres
August 5, 2026
According to Gabe Burns of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Atlanta's rumored interest in Mize ahead of Monday's trade deadline was "overstated."
Analysis
The club was interested in bolstering its rotation at the deadline and pursued the likes of Logan Webb and Jacob deGrom, but its only splash came in the form of Tyler Mahle. Mize, who is in the midst of the best season of his career with a 2.70 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 85:19 K:BB across 86.2 innings for the Tigers, ended up being traded to the Padres, who also acquired Robbie Ray.
See All MLB Rumors