Chris Paddack

Chris Paddack

27-Year-Old PitcherSP
Minnesota Twins
2023 Fantasy Outlook
Paddack had a tantalizing rookie season in 2019, but hit some bumps in 2020 and struggled in 2021. Minnesota traded for him before last season believing they could turn him around. After a promising five starts (4.03 ERA and 1.72 FIP), Paddack suffered an elbow injury and required Tommy John surgery for the second time (also in 2017). He could return in the second half of the 2023 season, but may need some time to regain his command. With two elbow surgeries and a downward trend to his career before the trade to the Twins, it's not certain he'll be part of a MLB rotation again. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#601
ADP
$Signed a three-year, $12.53 million contract extension with the Twins in January of 2023.
Returned from injured list
PMinnesota Twins
September 24, 2023
The Twins reinstated Paddack (elbow) from the 60-day injured list Sunday.
ANALYSIS
Paddack has been on the shelf all season while recovering from a Tommy John procedure he underwent in May 2022 -- the second of his career. He made three rehab starts in the minors, where he gave up four runs over 9.2 innings. Paddack figures to initially serve in a multi-inning relief role during Minnesota's postseason run, and he will likely rejoin the rotation in 2024. The Twins optioned Josh Winder to Triple-A St. Paul and transferred Jovani Moran (forearm) to the 60-day injured list as corresponding moves.
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Pitching Stats
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2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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Minor League Game Log
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2021
 
 
-27%
BAA vs LHP
2023
No Stats
2022
 
 
-20%
BAA vs RHP
2021
 
 
-34%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2021vs Left .229 266 55 13 57 14 2 5
Since 2021vs Right .312 286 64 11 83 15 3 10
2023vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2022vs Left .324 35 8 0 11 3 1 0
2022vs Right .259 58 12 2 14 4 0 0
2021vs Left .214 231 47 13 46 11 1 5
2021vs Right .325 228 52 9 69 11 3 10
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2021
 
 
-37%
ERA on Road
2023
No Stats
2022
 
 
-50%
ERA on Road
2021
 
 
-36%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2021Home 6.12 1.56 60.1 3 5 0 9.2 2.1 1.0
Since 2021Away 3.84 1.00 70.1 5 4 0 7.3 1.3 1.0
2023Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2022Home 5.25 1.42 12.0 0 1 0 9.8 0.8 0.0
2022Away 2.61 0.97 10.1 1 1 0 6.1 0.9 0.0
2021Home 6.33 1.59 48.1 3 4 0 9.1 2.4 1.3
2021Away 4.05 1.00 60.0 4 3 0 7.5 1.4 1.2
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Prospect Rankings History
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Chris Paddack See More
Mound Musings: A Look at Pitching in the AL Central
206 days ago
Brad Johnson breaks down the pitching situations in the AL Central, starting in Chicago where Johnson expects Lucas Giolito to have a bounce-back season.
Collette Calls: 2023 AL West Bold Predictions
221 days ago
Jason Collette shares a pair of bold predictions for each AL West team, making the case for George Kirby and Jose Abreu while doubting Nathaniel Lowe.
Todd's Takes: Arsenals and Angles
September 1, 2022
Todd Zola analyzes pitchers with limited arsenals before tackling the most interesting fantasy fall-out from Wednesday's schedule.
The Z Files: Sometimes, Crime Does Pay
May 20, 2022
Todd Zola examines the league-wide stolen-base environment and identifies some speedy players who could be valuable as streaming options, including Andres Gimenez.
Collette Calls: Still Chasing Wins
May 13, 2022
Wins have been hard to come by this season. Jason Collette examines early run-support numbers and notes pitchers that have enjoyed good fortune in that regard, and those that have not, like Corbin Burnes.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2022
2021
2020
2019
2017
Paddack enters the 2022 season with as much concern as he had hype entering 2020. He exploded onto the season with a stellar rookie campaign, but hit some bumps in 2020 when the league began hunting non-changeups in the count. The lack of a truly effective third pitch has continued to haunt him as Paddack's ratios continue to climb across the board. His 2021 season ended on an unfortunate note of a UCL sprain which required a PRP injection in late September. That measure does not take him out of the woods; far from it. At the very least it puts a crimp on his offseason pitching plans where he normally would have the opportunity to continue working on furthering his curveball which showed some statistical promise last season. His fastball has simply been too hittable the past two seasons, so a deeper repertoire and the confidence to throw any of his three pitches in any count could help stop the ratio bleeding.
Paddack was the talk of baseball for a while in 2019 as he made the jump from Double-A and hit the ground running, cruising to a 3.33 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over 140.2 innings as a 23-year-old. His changeup remained a great weapon in 2020, but his fastball suddenly became entirely too hittable. Major League Baseball combined to hit .308 with a .658 SLG against Paddack's four-seam fastball in 2020, up from .204 and .391 the season prior. Of the 14 homers Paddack allowed, 10 were against the four-seamer. Aside from a minor ankle injury in September, Paddack was ostensibly healthy. His average velocity on his four-seamer held steady, supporting the idea his arm is fine. Paddack, who had Tommy John surgery earlier in his career, is just entering his age-25 season and should theoretically be well rested and capable of handling a relatively heavy workload in 2021. There are some lingering questions, however.
Paddack followed his eye-opening run of success in the minors with an impressive rookie season, emerging as the ace of San Diego's staff. The right-hander paired excellent control (5.5 BB%) and strong strikeout numbers (26.9 K%) to post the fifth-lowest WHIP in the majors (0.98) among pitchers who hurled 100 or more innings. Paddack's fastball isn't overpowering -- it sits at around 94 mph and is thrown with average spin -- but opponents managed to hit only .204 against it due to Paddack's superb command and intelligent mound mechanics. His changeup was even more difficult to handle; Paddack went to the pitch 28.5% of the time, holding hitters to a .190 average. The Padres limited Paddack's workload last season, but he proved his stamina with four dominant starts to close the season. He'll be three years removed from Tommy John surgery in 2020 and should thrive as he's freed to pitch without limitations.
Significant help is finally coming for the Padres’ rotation in 2019, with Paddack leading the way. His fastball doesn’t generate plus readings on the radar gun (typically 93-94 mph), but at 6-foot-4, he gets great extension on the pitch, and plus command allows it to play up at least a full grade. Paddack may have the best changeup in the minors, which, coupled with his fastball command, has enabled him to log a 1.82 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 230:20 K:BB in 177.2 career innings while holding opposing hitters to a .193 AVG. His success to this point is unparalleled. He could make it as a No. 3 starter with his current repertoire. However, if he can improve his breaking ball and/or add another tick to his fastball in his second year back from Tommy John surgery, Paddack could profile as a No. 1 starter. The Padres limited him to 85 pitches per outing in 2018, but they should set him loose this year. He could join the big-league rotation around the All-Star break.
Paddack turned himself into a hot commodity to begin the 2016 campaign, as the 20-year-old posted an absurd 48:2 K:BB in 28.1 innings at Low-A in the Marlins' organization. With a 0.95 ERA to boot, Paddack was traded at the height of his value to the Padres in the Fernando Rodney deal. He continued to dominate through three starts, notching a 0.64 ERA and 23:3 K:BB in 14 subsequent innings for Low-A Fort Wayne. Unfortunately, he then started experiencing elbow problems, was diagnosed with a torn UCL and ultimately underwent Tommy John surgery in August. As a result, he will likely miss the entirety of the 2017 season. When healthy, Paddack combines his sneaky low-90s fastball with a changeup and exceptional command. The development of a third pitch will determine his future path, if he can return to form following surgery.
More Fantasy News
Strikes out six in rehab outing
PMinnesota Twins
Elbow
September 15, 2023
Paddack (elbow) struck out six over four innings and gave up two earned runs on four hits and no walks in a rehab start Tuesday with Double-A Wichita.
ANALYSIS
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Sits at 95 mph in first rehab start
PMinnesota Twins
Elbow
September 7, 2023
Paddack (elbow) allowed two runs on two hits and two walks and struck out four across 2.2 innings Wednesday in his first rehab appearance with Single-A Fort Myers.
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Rehab assignment coming
PMinnesota Twins
Elbow
August 29, 2023
Paddack (elbow) said Tuesday that he'll begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Fort Myers on Sept. 6, John Shipley of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports.
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Building up to three innings
PMinnesota Twins
Elbow
August 28, 2023
Paddack (elbow) is expected to throw a three-inning, 50-pitch simulated game this week at the Twins' spring training complex in Florida, Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com reports.
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Ready to face hitters
PMinnesota Twins
Elbow
August 16, 2023
Paddack (elbow) will face live hitters this week at the team's spring training complex in Fort Myers, Fla., Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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