Corey Dickerson

Dickerson was one of the few Marlins who did not play over his skis en route to their surprise postseason appearance. He's a great lesson in looking at component average exit velocity. Historically, Dickerson's average exit velocity appears low, but his groundball velocity is lower than average while his flyball velocity is above average. Last season not only was Dickerson's exit velocity on flyballs down, but his groundball percentage skyrocketed at the expense of line drives, suggesting he topped the ball even more than usual. Dickerson suffered a drop in both average and power, posting the least productive season of his career. There's no way of telling how the in-season delay in Miami affected Dickerson's ability to get in a groove, but his history merits a mulligan. Dickerson has always flown under the radar in fantasy and this year will be no different.

Dickerson surprised many by hitting .300 for a second consecutive season, as it was long thought his ability to do that was anchored to him hitting in Coors Field. He has now done it in as many seasons away from Coors as he did in Colorado. Injuries cut into his overall production last season; he was on pace to have a career year around the injuries which limited him to just 78 games. Dickerson has cured his issues against lefties that plagued him earlier in his career enough that he is at least league average in those situations. After signing a two-year deal with the Marlins, Dickerson appears likely to play nearly every day in 2020, and the Marlins announced that they are moving in the center-field and right-center-field fences in Miami this season. Dickerson has the skills to be a player that provides you with a 200% return on your draft-day investment as long as you don't reach for him.

Dickerson adopted a contrarian approach, putting more balls in play, knowingly at the expense of power. After analyzing video, Dickerson began choking up while adjusting his stance based on the type of pitcher, allowing him to catch up to fastballs at a highly increased clip. The result was indeed a sharp decline in whiffs with a steep drop in HR/FB. Curiously, the rest of Dickerson’s underlying metrics were like the previous season, including hard-hit rate, exit velocity and launch angle. In fact, his launch angle ticked up a degree, running anti to hitting fewer homers. While Dickerson stated he was pleased with his new swing, his 2018 wOBA and wRC+ were identical to 2017. That said, it’s possible the next step is for Dickerson to add pop with the altered stroke. After winning the Gold Glove, there’s less of a chance he falls back into a platoon, making Dickerson an intriguing play with a new batting average floor plus power upside at an affordable price.

On the surface, it appears Dickerson figured out how to hit lefties, as he sported a higher OPS in 2017 when batting without the platoon advantage. However, it takes about 1,000 plate appearances for a lefty swinger against southpaws before he owns the split. Including last season, Dickerson isn't even halfway to that threshold, so assuming he continues to hit left-handers is risky. That said, Dickerson's gains were in average as he hit just three of his 27 homers with a lefty on the hill. Dickerson remains what he was heading into last season -- a power bat with batting average dependent on BABIP (mid-70s contact rate). His success against lefties will likely afford him a chance to play close to every day with Pittsburgh following a February trade, but he could platoon if those gains don't hold. Despite hitting high in the order, Dickerson's run production is likely to fall short of other similar hitters, as the Pirates' offense does not project to be especially prolific with Andrew McCutchen gone.

Dickerson proved he wasn't just a Coors Field mirage in his first season in Tampa, as he equaled his career high with 24 homers while reaching the 70-RBI mark for the second time in his career. His walk rate also saw a slight boost to 6.0 percent, while his contact rate essentially held steady. The 27-year-old provided plenty of optimism for 2017 by finishing the season on a high note, slashing .291/.328/.527 with six homers and 18 RBI over his last 110 at-bats. Dickerson was a prolific source of extra-base hits, tallying a whopping 63 overall, including 36 doubles. Having had a full season to acclimate to American League pitching and his new home digs, Dickerson could be primed for another step up fantasy-wise in 2017.

Plantar fasciitis and rib fractures limited Dickerson to just 65 games in 2015, his first season as an Opening Day starter in Colorado. He enjoyed a good deal of success when healthy, slashing .304/.333/.536 in 234 plate appearances and managing 10 home runs in the truncated campaign. Dickerson already has 39 home runs in 925 career plate appearances, shy of two full season's worth of at-bats. His fantasy outlook for 2016 took a hit with the late-January trade to Tampa Bay, as he now faces a likelihood of being platooned in addition to the downgrade in home park. That said, the park factor downgrade may be a bit overblown, as the Trop hasn't been a wasteland for left-handed power, and the AL East as a whole is generally favorable for left-handed power hitters. Dickerson does enough with the ball when he hits it that his 21.4% career strikeout rate has been a non-issue, and he can easily reach 20-plus home runs if healthy for a full season no matter where he plays. Don't expect to see Dickerson run much, though, as he wasn't overly aggressive on the basepaths even before the foot injury last season.

Though he opened the season in a reserve role, Dickerson might have been the Rockies’ offensive MVP by the end of it. When injuries to Michael Cuddyer and Carlos Gonzalez opened up playing time, Dickerson took full advantage, smacking a team-leading 24 homers, adding a dash of steals, and batting .312, a mark that would have placed him fourth in the NL had he logged 24 more plate appearances to qualify. Likely locked into a starting role for 2015, Dickerson won’t fly under the radar this season, but he isn’t necessarily a safe bet to fully replicate his production, either. Dickerson saw a 363-point drop in OPS on the road last season and was mediocre against lefty pitching, posting a .308 OBP while striking out in more than a quarter of his 98 plate appearances. The latter deficiency puts him at risk of slipping back into a platoon role with Drew Stubbs, potentially hurting his counting totals. Dickerson will carry the most utility in formats with daily lineup moves, where he can be better optimized when the park and pitcher handedness favor him.

Dickerson had always been regarded as a quality prospect in the Rockies’ system during his previous seasons in the minors, but it wasn’t until he compiled an otherworldly .371/.414/.632 line at Triple-A Colorado Springs that legitimate hope sprouted that he could be an everyday big leaguer. He got his first crack at meaningful duty with the Rockies in the second half, maintaining the 7.5% walk rate he showed at Triple-A while batting .263 and showcasing encouraging gap power. What was somewhat concerning for Dickerson was his vast difference in home/road splits, as he slashed just .231/.268/.308 away from Coors Field. That issue is certainly not unique to Dickerson, but it’s something that might be significant enough for Charlie Blackmon to win the starting left field job, limiting Dickerson to fourth-outfielder status.

For what Dickerson might have sacrificed in the power department in moving away from a cushy home ballpark at Low-A Asheville, he more than made up for it as an all-around offensive threat, batting a collective .304 and trimming his strikeout rate between stops at High-A Modesto and Double-A Tulsa. Dickerson picked up right where he left off in the regular season with a scintillating Arizona Fall League, and seems well positioned to see significant time at Triple-A Colorado Springs heading into this season. The Rockies' crowded outfield mix will probably prevent him from seeing any time in the big leagues until September, but another excellent season in the minors will surely put him on the team's radar for 2014.

While it's easy to fixate on Dickerson hitting 32 homers last season, we should also not look past the huge home/road split he had at Low-A Asheville last season. Dickerson hit 26 of his 32 homers at home, and had a OPS .620 points higher there (1.262 vs. .642). Let's see how the Rockies' eighth round pick in the 2010 draft fares at higher levels and in more neutral parks before we get too excited about his potential.