German Marquez

28-Year-Old PitcherSP

Colorado Rockies

60-Day IL

Injury Elbow

Est. Return 7/1/2024

2023 Stats

W-L

2-2

ERA

4.95

WHIP

1.10

Rest-of-Season Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2023 Fantasy Outlook

For years, Marquez was a pitcher fantasy players longed to see get a chance outside of Colorado, as his park-adjusted numbers were quite strong. That changed last season. Marquez managed an ERA- of 88 through the end of 2021, but that number spiked to 108 last year as his ERA jumped to 5.00. His 1.49 HR/9 effectively tied his career-worst mark of 1.50, set back in 2019, but his struggles went beyond just the long ball. His strikeout rate fell by four points to 19.3%, while his groundball rate dipped to a merely above-average 47.6%, his lowest mark since 2018. Toss in a merely average 8.1 BB% and you get a pitcher who would be fine but forgettable on most teams and a potential disaster in Denver. If you can justify giving a roster spot to Marquez while only ever using him on the road, you could be in fine shape, as his 6.70 home ERA last season came with a 3.43 road ERA, but expecting anything more than that may be unwise. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

#492

ADP

Overall

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man No

Height 6'1"

Weight 230

DOB 2/22/1995

Born San Felix, Venezuela

College None

Drafted 2011 TB

Inks two-year extension

PColorado Rockies

Elbow

September 8, 2023

Colorado signed Marquez (elbow) to a two-year, $20 million contract extension Friday.

ANALYSIS
This new deal will cover the 2024-2025 seasons, so Marquez is no longer headed into free agency this winter and now carries some financial security into the remaining several months of his rehabilitation from Tommy John surgery. He underwent the reconstructive elbow procedure in May of this year and is not expected to return to a major-league mound until the second half of next season. The 28-year-old right-hander owns a 4.41 ERA in 1,016 career big-league innings, all with the Rockies. His career ERA away from Coors Field is 3.80.

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Pitching Stats

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2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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2018 MLB Game Log

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2017 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

Last 5 Games

How many pitches does German Marquez generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does German Marquez generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2021

-14%

BAA vs RHP

2023

-20%

BAA vs LHP

2022

-12%

BAA vs RHP

2021

-19%

BAA vs RHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2021vs Left	.270	883	171	87	211	48	4	29
Since 2021vs Right	.233	732	172	43	158	38	3	26
2023vs Left	.233	47	11	2	10	3	1	3
2023vs Right	.290	33	6	1	9	3	0	1
2022vs Left	.279	424	82	42	104	23	3	17
2022vs Right	.245	355	68	21	81	22	2	13
2021vs Left	.265	412	78	43	97	22	0	9
2021vs Right	.215	344	98	21	68	13	1	12
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2021

-12%

ERA on Road

2023

-33%

ERA at Home

2022

-49%

ERA on Road

2021

-32%

ERA at Home

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2021Home	5.02	1.35	195.1	11	9	0	8.4	2.9	1.3
Since 2021Away	4.40	1.26	186.1	12	17	0	7.8	3.2	1.3
2023Home	3.60	0.60	5.0	1	0	0	7.2	0.0	0.0
2023Away	5.40	1.27	15.0	1	2	0	7.8	1.8	2.4
2022Home	6.70	1.60	87.1	2	6	0	8.2	2.5	2.0
2022Away	3.43	1.14	94.1	7	7	0	6.7	3.7	1.0
2021Home	3.67	1.17	103.0	8	3	0	8.6	3.5	0.8
2021Away	5.38	1.40	77.0	4	8	0	9.1	2.8	1.4
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Stat Review

How does German Marquez compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

5.67

K/9

7.7

BB/9

1.4

HR/9

1.8

Fastball

95.4 mph

ERA

4.95

WHIP

1.10

BABIP

.276

GB/FB

2.31

Left On Base

67.1%

Exit Velocity

85.8 mph

Barrels/BBE

7.0%

Spin Rate

2240 rpm

Balls Hit 95+ MPH

34.2%

Swinging Strike

10.9%

Advanced Pitching Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

Marquez is one of the league's best starters, but he makes half his starts in Colorado where he can get BABIP'd to death. Over his career, he has a 3.85 ERA and .285 BABIP on the road and at home those numbers jump to 4.73 and .330, respectively. Last season, the narrative got turned on its head a bit. The big difference was his 57.7 GB% at home (0.8 HR/9) compared to a 43.9 GB% (1.4 HR/9) on the road. The discrepancy seemed to be based primarily on him pitching low in the zone at home and high on the road since his pitch mix was nearly identical. Maybe he should just throw low in the zone all the time since he's one of the few starters with two pitches boasting a 20% or higher swinging-strike rate. Due to his home field and nonexistent offense, Marquez won't be worth the hassle for many, but there is value to be extracted here if you pick your spots right.

Marquez is under contract with the Rockies for another three guaranteed years (with a fourth-year team option for 2024), which is a shame because it would be wonderful to see what he could do statistically in a full season away from Coors Field. As if 2020 did not suck enough, Marquez took a beating at home with a 5.68 ERA and a .296 opponents' batting average in 38 innings of work. He was not hurt by homers (two), but the expansiveness of the outfield and the altitude's impact on his breaking stuff make him too hittable. Conversely, he had a 2.06 road ERA and a .201 opponents' batting average away from Coors. His overall strikeout rate fell for a third consecutive season, pushing his K-BB% to a rather pedestrian 14% last season. He has not lost any velocity, so the drop in strikeouts could have been a result of the unbalanced scheduling of 2020.

A divisive player last draft season, Marquez's backers argued his huge second half in 2018 proved he could thrive anywhere, while his detractors pointed to the long list of pitchers before him who couldn't tame Coors Field. Though Marquez displayed stellar skills -- his 19.4 K-BB% and 12.7 SwSt% were both top 20 among qualified starters -- the skeptics ultimately got the last laugh. Marquez submitted a bloated 6.26 ERA (3.30 xFIP) and 1.55 WHIP in 13 starts at altitude, and his road numbers, while good, couldn't atone for the Coors-inflicted damage. For that reason, Marquez is best suited for leagues with daily lineup moves, but those rostering him in weekly formats should aim to fill out their staff with low ERA/WHIP arms. Despite the ratio risk he carries, Marquez offers high-end strikeout upside; he was tracking for a second straight 200-K season until he was shuttered in late August with an arm injury.

Marquez took a big leap in his second full season, finishing eighth in the major leagues in strikeouts. Something clicked around midseason. He posted a 2.41 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 137:20 K:BB in his final 16 starts spanning 108.1 innings, including a minuscule 1.90 ERA at Coors Field during that stretch. Both his breaking pitches -- his curveball and his slider -- had swinging-strike rates north of 20%, and Marquez had the fourth-best K-BB% among qualified starters in the second half (28.4%). The Coors Field effect is always risky on a start-to-start basis, but Marquez has two full seasons under his belt and will turn just 24 in February, so there's plenty of reason to expect growth and continued success.

Fun with small samples: in nearly the same number of innings, Marquez's home ERA was 4.59 compared to 4.19 away from Coors Field, which makes sense. However, a 1.26 home WHIP versus 1.49 away is curious until you see Marquez's road BABIP was a bloated .331. Skills-wise, Marquez fanned more and walked fewer at home, though he predictably surrendered more homers in Coors. The message isn't Marquez is a better pitcher at home, but rather if he can improve his performance on the road, which he should, he can be a useful starter. In his favor is a low walk rate (2.7 BB/9) and a groundball tilt (45.2 percent) to help combat the long ball. Colorado did an excellent job managing his innings, limiting the righty to 29 starts spanning 162 frames. Marquez should eclipse that total in 2018, but not by much as the Rockies look to protect their still just 23-year-old arm.

Marquez was more or less an add-on in the trade that brought Jake McGee to Colorado from Tampa Bay, but after one season in the Rockies' system, it seems like the 21-year-old was actually the true prize. The right-hander started off strong, holding a 2.85 ERA and a 126:33 K:BB ratio with Double-A Hartford, prompting a promotion to Triple-A Albuquerque. He also performed well at that stop, leading the Rockies to send Marquez to the big leagues ahead of schedule. The top prospect had some rough outings with Colorado, but he also displayed the pitching prominence that led the Rockies to accelerate him through their farm system. His pitching style fits his future home park quite well (good control, few home runs allowed), and if he can continue to adjust to big league hitters, Marquez could break camp in the rotation and become one of its staples for years to come.

More Fantasy News

Moved to 60-day IL

PColorado Rockies

Elbow

May 19, 2023

The Rockies placed Marquez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Friday.

ANALYSIS
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Undergoes Tommy John surgery

PColorado Rockies

Elbow

May 12, 2023

Rockies manager Bud Black told reporters before Friday's game against the Phillies that Marquez (elbow) had undergone Tommy John reconstructive surgery earlier in the day, Kyle Newman of The Denver Post reports.

ANALYSIS
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Getting Tommy John surgery

PColorado Rockies

Elbow

May 2, 2023

Marquez (elbow) revealed Tuesday that he needs Tommy John surgery, Danielle Allentuck of The Denver Gazette reports.

ANALYSIS
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Tommy John surgery feared

PColorado Rockies

Elbow

April 28, 2023

Marquez (elbow) said Friday that he's worried he might require Tommy John surgery, Danielle Allentuck of The Denver Gazette reports.

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Placed on IL with sore elbow

PColorado Rockies

Elbow

April 28, 2023

Marquez was placed on the 15-day injured list Friday, retroactive to April 27, with right elbow inflammation.

ANALYSIS
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