Jake Fraley

Jake Fraley

28-Year-Old OutfielderOF
Cincinnati Reds
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Acquired from Seattle prior to the 2022 season, Fraley has emerged as a quality platoon outfielder/DH in his two years with Cincinnati. He spent time on the injured list last season with wrist and toe injuries, the latter of which required October surgery to repair. Fraley is expected to be fully ready for the start of spring training in 2024. Reds manager David Bell was rigid in his usage of Fraley, limiting him to a mere four starts and 41 plate appearances against left-handed pitching all season. When he had the platoon advantage, Fraley slashed .268/.348/.467 with all 15 of his home runs. He's done a better job of being aggressive within the strike zone, adding nearly 12 percentage points to his Z-Swing% over the past two years, and the speed element of his game showed up in 2023 in the form of 21 steals in 26 attempts. The fact that he doesn't play against lefty pitching limits his counting-stat upside, but among strict platoon bats in MLB, Fraley is right up there with (or just behind) the best. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
#279
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $2.15 million contract with the Reds in January of 2024.
Avoids arbitration at $2.15 million
OFCincinnati Reds
January 11, 2024
The Reds and Fraley avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $2.15 million contract Thursday, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
It's Fraley's first year of arbitration eligibility and he'll get a nice raise after posting a .783 OPS with 15 homers and 21 steals over 111 games for Cincinnati in 2023. The 28-year-old remains injury prone and can't hit lefties, but he should be an asset again for the Reds against righties this season. Fraley had toe surgery in October but is expected to be ready to roll for spring training.
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Batting Stats
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2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
9
2
20
29
21
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
1
1
1
1
1
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2021
 
 
+62%
OPS vs RHP
2023
 
 
+62%
OPS vs RHP
2022
 
 
+81%
OPS vs RHP
2021
 
 
+53%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2021vs Left .513 157 15 2 14 8 .158 .280 .233
Since 2021vs Right .829 735 86 34 115 27 .262 .358 .471
2023vs Left .504 41 5 0 5 3 .147 .268 .235
2023vs Right .815 339 36 15 60 18 .268 .348 .467
2022vs Left .476 31 4 1 3 1 .143 .226 .250
2022vs Right .861 216 29 11 25 3 .277 .361 .500
2021vs Left .531 85 6 1 6 4 .169 .306 .225
2021vs Right .815 180 21 8 30 6 .231 .374 .441
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2021
 
 
+4%
OPS at Home
2023
 
 
+4%
OPS at Home
2022
 
 
+14%
OPS at Home
2021
 
 
+5%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2021Home .791 443 46 17 59 13 .251 .348 .442
Since 2021Away .757 449 55 19 70 22 .237 .341 .417
2023Home .796 206 22 9 33 8 .257 .325 .471
2023Away .766 174 19 6 32 13 .255 .356 .409
2022Home .873 105 13 5 11 0 .287 .362 .511
2022Away .765 142 20 7 17 4 .238 .331 .434
2021Home .701 132 11 3 15 5 .208 .374 .327
2021Away .738 133 16 6 21 5 .212 .331 .407
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Stat Review
How does Jake Fraley compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
0.52
 
BB Rate
9.7%
 
K Rate
18.7%
 
BABIP
.283
 
ISO
.188
 
AVG
.256
 
OBP
.339
 
SLG
.443
 
OPS
.783
 
wOBA
.344
 
Exit Velocity
84.6 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
29.0%
 
Barrels/PA
4.5%
 
Expected BA
.261
 
Expected SLG
.402
 
Sprint Speed
23.9 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
38.3%
 
Line Drive %
22.6%
 
Fly Ball %
39.1%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2017
Fraley was acquired by the Reds from the Mariners just before the start of the 2022 campaign, and he took a major step forward when available with an .812 OPS and 12 home runs in 247 plate appearances. The problem being he was sidelined for much of the summer with knee and toe injuries and played in only 68 games. Still, Fraley cut his strikeout rate nearly five percentage points to 21.9 percent and took advantage of playing at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park with a .287/.362/.511 slash line at home. The Reds aren't likely to make any significant splashes in free agency, so Fraley should receive regular playing time to open 2023. He could be a decent depth option for mix-league fantasy formats and could especially have value as a streamer for homestands.
If you like OBP, Jake Fraley provides that. Throughout Fraley's short MLB career, he totaled 13 home runs and 11 steals with a slash line of .196/.320/.336 in 335 plate appearances. Fraley's high BB% at 17.4% comes a 26.8% K%. With more playing time, Fraley's upside could be a 20/20 season. However, Fraley's .531 OPS versus lefties may limit that. In terms of skills, Fraley rocks a 24.7% LD% and 5.9% barrel rate with a patient approach, evidenced by the 22.6% O-Swing% and 41.4% Swing% well below the league averages. Fraley dealt with a quad, hamstring, and shoulder injury throughout 2020-2021 that caused him to lose plate appearances. Outside of Mitch Haniger and Jarred Kelenic, Fraley will battle with Taylor Trammell, Dylan Moore, and Kyle Lewis in the outfield. Top prospect Julio Rodriguez is also on his way. Fraley serves as a cheap source of power and speed.
Fraley hasn't done much with his major-league opportunities, posting a .152/.200/.227 slash line and registering a 35.7 K% across 70 plate appearances over parts of the last two seasons. The outfielder's struggles are a sharp contrast to his hitting prowess in the minors. Between 2018 and 2019, Fraley batted .316 and struck out less than 20% of the time while progressing from High-A to Triple-A. His appeal grew with an emergence of power in 2019, when he more than doubled his previous minor-league output with 19 homers in only 382 at-bats. Fraley has reached double-digit stolen bases three times in four minor-league seasons, so he could have fantasy value as a moderate speed-power contributor if he can prove himself against big-league pitching. However, Fraley turns 26 in May and Jerred Kelenic is waiting in the wings, so Fraley's window to squeeze himself into Seattle's future plans could be closing.
The Mariners had to add Fraley to the 40-man in 2019 one way or another, so they selected his contract in August after he obliterated Double-A pitching (156 wRC+) and was OK in 38 games at Triple-A (104 wRC+). His season was cut short when he sprained ligaments in his thumb. Fraley missed significant time due to injuries earlier in his career, so he is not a normal 24-year-old from a developmental standpoint. The No. 77 pick from 2016 has been dominant at almost every MiLB stop. He is an above-average defender with above-average speed who excels at lifting the ball, but his LD% dipped after his promotion from Double-A while he worked on using the whole field. Fraley projects to be a better real-life player than Mallex Smith, so he will be given the opportunity this spring to take the center field job and run with it. There is some swing-and-miss in his game, but he has 20/20 upside.
Injuries prevented Fraley's career from taking off in his first full season after being selected by the Rays with the No. 77 overall pick in 2016. However, he hit .361/.449/.680 with 13 home runs and 39 steals over 40 games in the Australian Baseball League last offseason, which put him squarely back on the dynasty-league map. He followed that up by notching a 172 wRC+ in 260 plate appearances at High-A, but undisclosed injuries once again cost him time. An offseason trade to the Mariners put him on the national radar, which unfortunately ups the acquisition cost, but it was a boon for those who already had him rostered, as he goes from a club with ridiculous depth to an organization where he should have a clear path to playing time. Fraley is an excellent defender in center field, makes hard contact to all fields and rarely strikes out. The key going forward will be proving he can hold up over a full season. He will likely be assigned to Double-A.
The 21-year-old center fielder slashed .238/.339/.364 with a homer, 18 RBI, seven triples and 33 stolen bases at short-season Hudson Valley after being selected 77th overall in the 2016 first-year player draft. He posted a solid 14.2 percent strikeout rate and 83 percent contact rate while batting at or near the top of the order. The speed and plate skills make him somewhat intriguing, but will Fraley hit enough against higher-level pitching to take full advantage of his speed? Time will tell. . . and for most, waiting it out will be a tough sell.
More Fantasy News
Undergoes toe surgery
OFCincinnati Reds
Toe
October 18, 2023
Fraley underwent surgery on his left fourth toe Oct. 11, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Idle Friday
OFCincinnati Reds
September 29, 2023
Fraley isn't starting Friday against the Cardinals.
ANALYSIS
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Out of lineup Tuesday
OFCincinnati Reds
September 26, 2023
Fraley is absent from the lineup Tuesday versus the Guardians.
ANALYSIS
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On bench against lefty
OFCincinnati Reds
September 23, 2023
Fraley will sit against lefty Bailey Falter and the Pirates on Saturday.
ANALYSIS
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Not starting Friday
OFCincinnati Reds
September 22, 2023
Fraley isn't in the Reds' lineup Friday against the Pirates.
ANALYSIS
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