Jake Peavy

After posting a stellar 2.17 ERA in the second half with the Giants in 2014, many had Peavy pegged as a value pick once he re-signed and decided to stay in the NL West. However, a back injury during spring training caused his 2015 debut to be pushed back to July. Once he was healthy, Peavy started to show why he was a deep league sleeper heading into the season. He had stretches of usefulness in the second half, and finished the season with a 3.58 ERA, 6.3 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9. At age 34, he doesn’t have as much power on his pitches as he used to during his Cy Young days, but he has evolved into a crafty pitcher who can locate and use his changeup to strike out batters. Pitching his home games at AT&T Park gives him a boost in value needed to become worthy of being drafted in deeper leagues, as well as providing stream appeal in most standard formats.

Peavy showed that his skills work best in the National League at this age. The 34-year old just doesn’t have the overpowering stuff he once did after more than 2,100 innings and a bevy of injuries. His 89-91 mph fastball is a far cry from the 94-96 mph heater he decimated the league with back in 2007 when he won the Cy Young Award. He has an impressive secondary arsenal that allows him to live with lowered velocity as long as he focuses on pitching instead of trying to overpower the opposition. The phrase “stay within himself” is wildly overused, but sometimes it is apt. Peavy is one such case. When he gets too amped, he instantly becomes ineffective, which is why his 7.98 ERA in the postseason isn’t a huge surprise, even after recognizing it’s a small 38-inning sample. The Giants loved having Peavy and he loved being there, and the two sides were able to come to terms on a two-year deal in December.

Peavy, who had pitched 219 innings in 2012 after several injury-marred seasons, missed time last season due to a rib injury that cost him seven weeks during the summer and limited him to 144.2 innings. He pitched capably when healthy, first for the White Sox and then down the stretch for the Red Sox. In 10 regular-season starts for the Red Sox, he was 4-1 and received greater run support than he had in Chicago. The postseason was less kind to Peavy (7.38 ERA), but ultimately it didn't hurt Boston. He'll turn 33 next season and is experiencing the normal things we see in aging pitchers: dropping strikeout rates, rising hit rates and decreasing probability to throw 200 innings. A reasonably healthy Peavy should get you 12-15 wins with an ERA in the low 4.00s. He's in the final year of his contract and should open the season as Boston's fourth starter, behind Jon Lester, John Lackey and Clay Buchholz.

Peavy avoided the disabled list in 2012, and he turned in his first 30-start, 200-inning campaign since 2007. In fact, his 219 innings ranked fifth in the American League. Peavy may have an extensive injury history, but it is worth noting that he has had a clean bill of health since June 2011. Since returning to action in 2011, Peavy has carried a steady 4.0 BB/K over his last 50 starts and there is reason to believe that his skills have stabilized. He signed an extension with the White Sox to stick around for another two seasons, and should open up 2013 as the team's No. 2 or 3 option in the rotation.

Peavy was not supposed to return from the shoulder surgery that ended his 2010 season until June or July, and it seemed like he tried to push so that he could open the season in the White Sox's rotation. That extra effort may have limited his effectiveness. Peavy had some bright points during the season, but he had an ugly six-start stretch from late June to early August. His 111.2 innings were his most since 2008, which tells you how injury prone he has become, and his 7.66 K/9IP was his lowest since 2003. He will undeniably get a crack at the top-half of the White Sox's rotation, but we would not expect a full season out of him.

Peavy's 2010 season ended just as it was getting started. He struggled through the season's first two months with 11 home runs allowed and an ERA on the wrong side of 6.00 after 11 starts. But he held opposing batters to a .194 batting average over his next six starts (albeit all against weak opponents) before suffering a season-ending detached muscle near his right shoulder just before the All-Star break. His rehab schedule was still open as of press time, with reports placing his ETA anywhere from spring training to June. Note he has not crossed the 110-inning threshold in either of the last two seasons, and his K/9IP rate took a significant dip with his move to the American League.

The White Sox tried to trade for Peavy in May, but he turned them down. He finally relented at the trade deadline, but ankle and elbow problems prevented him from making his debut with Chicago until mid-September. He excelled in his three late-season starts, striking out 18 in 20 innings and posting a 0.850 WHIP. His velocity was down a tick, but his pitches still had good movement. Peavy should benefit from facing strange, new AL batters for the first time in his career, and he should be penciled in near the top of the team’s rotation.

This time last season, Peavy was the second-rated starting pitcher, right after Johan Santana. A year later, his stock has fallen as he did not pitch up to his lofty standards and missed a month, spending mid-May to mid-June on the disabled list with a sore elbow. By the numbers, while his strikeout rate was still excellent at 8.6 K/9IP, 2008 was the first season since his rookie year in 2002 that Peavy did not manage to whiff more than a batter an inning. When he's on, Peavy can dominate his opponent regardless of the park and assuming he is healthy, could actually be a value play coming off a perceived down year.

Peavy unanimously won the 2007 NL Cy Young Award after a 19-6, 2.54 ERA, 1.061 WHIP campaign. He led the NL with 240 strikeouts in 223.1 innings. On the down side, he has logged 864 career major league innings, a lot for a guy who won't turn 27 until May 31. Peavy carries some injury risk; ongoing shoulder soreness plagued him late in 2005 and throughout the 2006 campaign. Back to the good stuff: Peavy's success isn't a product of spacious Petco Park, as his career home and road splits are very similar. Plus, Peavy probably hasn't reached his physical peak yet. If his health allows, he could defend the Cy Young in 2008.

After two consecutive outstanding seasons, Peavy regressed a bit in 2006: his 4.09 ERA was his highest since 2003 and those 14 losses were his most in five major league seasons. Ongoing shoulder soreness is a possible explanation for Peavy's subpar season, although he did not require a stint on the disabled list. He did admit to soreness early in the season and said it improved throughout the year, but also said after the season that he experienced pain down the stretch. When Peavy is healthy, he is a flamethrowing ace. The Padres will count on him and Chris Young to anchor their staff in 2007.

Peavy again showed outstanding command while leading the NL in strikeouts. Although a low hit rate like Peavy's can often be the result of park effects, Petco being very pitcher-friendly, he posted nearly identical home and road splits for the second consecutive year. He may not win the Cy Young, but there's every reason to think he'll be one of the contenders again in 2006.

The breakout was fast and furious for Peavy, the National League's ERA winner. But be advised - the best is still to come as he's throwing just three pitches, sometimes two, not needing anything more to dispose of hitters. Expect further gains to the 15 wins in years to come as he stretches out and learns to pitch more efficiently. Last season's ERA is a bit of a myth as the strikeout rate was superlative at 9.36 per nine innings pitched, but he got away with a fair bit as evidenced by a 1.20 WHIP. Still just 23, he's going to get better, and a CY Young award is the next goal as he becomes one of the premier pitchers in baseball.

Last year was one more rung up the ladder for the 15th-round pick back in 1999. The 22-year-old showed flashes of brilliance, which included a post-All Star break ERA of 3.46, with 68 strikeouts in 78 innings. At 12-11 on the 2003 season, more is expected from the big right-hander in the future, and he'll likely deliver barring arm difficulties that derail so many promising young careers. One could make a reasonable argument that he and 2003 AL Cy Young winner Roy Halladay have a similar style and make-up.

Peavy and Dennis Tankersley were considered the Padres' #1 and #1A pitching prospects prior to the 2002 season, but it was Peavy and not Tank that got the call that stuck last season. Peavy displayed the usual rookie ups and downs in his first major league season while logging 17 starts for the Friars. That experience should prove valuable as he looks to become an anchor on the Padres' staff for years to come.