Jarred Kelenic

Jarred Kelenic

23-Year-Old OutfielderOF
Seattle Mariners
2023 Fantasy Outlook
Kelenic's sophomore season was worse than his rookie campaign. A strong spring finish earned him a starting job, but Kelenic was soon demoted to Triple-A Tacoma. He earned another callup in late July but was again overmatched by MLB pitching so the visit was again short-lived and he rejoined the Rainers before a final promotion in late September. This time, Kelenic impressed with a 1,107 OPS in seven games before he was hit by a pitch on the hand. While Kelenic's career .758 OPS and 19.1% strikeout rate facing hard stuff isn't great, it's Ruth-ian compared to his .418 OPS and 41.5% strikeout rate versus break balls and changeups. Be it pitch recognition or timing, Kelenic clearly has an issue, but it should be fixable. The catch is Seattle is in win now mode and has depth in the outfield, so Kelenic must hit to play. The talent to turn things round is there, the opportunity is in jeopardy. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
$Signed a one-year contract with the Mariners in March of 2022.
Not in Thursday's lineup
OFSeattle Mariners
October 13, 2022
Kelenic is not in the lineup for Game 2 of Seattle's ALDS matchup with Houston.
ANALYSIS
Kelenic went 2-for-4 in Game 1 of the series, but he will be subbed out in favor of Dylan Moore with the Mariners facing southpaw Framber Valdez on Thursday.
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Batting Stats
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2022
2021
2020
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
1
3
6
10
12
2
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
1
2
4
3
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2020
 
 
+40%
OPS vs RHP
2022
 
 
+38%
OPS vs RHP
2021
 
 
+42%
OPS vs RHP
2020
No Stats
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2020vs Left .471 202 19 3 16 1 .157 .228 .243
Since 2020vs Right .658 356 42 18 44 10 .175 .264 .394
2022vs Left .426 59 6 1 3 1 .130 .203 .222
2022vs Right .587 122 14 6 14 4 .147 .230 .358
2021vs Left .490 143 13 2 13 0 .168 .238 .252
2021vs Right .695 234 28 12 30 6 .189 .282 .413
2020vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2020
 
 
+25%
OPS on Road
2022
 
 
+23%
OPS on Road
2021
 
 
+23%
OPS on Road
2020
No Stats
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2020Home .526 290 30 9 28 8 .148 .238 .288
Since 2020Away .656 268 31 12 32 3 .189 .265 .391
2022Home .487 107 11 4 10 3 .125 .206 .281
2022Away .601 74 9 3 7 2 .164 .243 .358
2021Home .549 183 19 5 18 5 .161 .257 .292
2021Away .677 194 22 9 25 1 .199 .273 .403
2020Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Jarred Kelenic compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
0.26
 
BB Rate
8.8%
 
K Rate
33.7%
 
BABIP
.167
 
ISO
.172
 
AVG
.141
 
OBP
.221
 
SLG
.313
 
OPS
.534
 
wOBA
.239
 
Exit Velocity
86.0 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
31.1%
 
Barrels/PA
7.7%
 
Expected BA
.172
 
Expected SLG
.351
 
Sprint Speed
22.4 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
36.9%
 
Line Drive %
10.7%
 
Fly Ball %
52.4%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2022
2021
2020
2019
We've been spoiled by some incredible prospect debuts in recent years. Kelenic does not fit in that category as his rookie year was nothing short of a colossal letdown. He finished with a miserable .181/.265/.350 line in 377 PA. Kelenic showed a pulse with an .854 OPS and seven homers over the final month of the season, and he swiped double-digit bags between Triple-A and the majors, but for a large portion of the year he was simply not doing damage on hittable pitches in the strike zone. His struggles in that regard are reflected in a bottom-eighth percentile xBA and middling 87.5 mph avgEV. Nobody these days is foolish enough to extrapolate his September over a full season, but somebody in your draft room is going to bet aggressively on a bounce-back from a player considered a top prospect in the game this time last year. It may be wise to wait another season and invest in a more proven option with that draft capital.
There was a stretch during summer camp in July where Kelenic was not only the prospect du jour, but the talk of the entire baseball world. Videos of his sweet left-handed home run swing were going viral and people were clamoring for him to make the big-league roster. He would have debuted in a 162-game season, but the rebuilding Mariners kept him at the alternate training site throughout the shortened season. With a good spring training, Kelenic will set himself up for a service-time manipulating April call-up or a long-term extension that would facilitate an Opening Day debut. He should assume a prominent spot in the lineup from day one and has five-category upside as a rookie. He could very reasonably go 25/15 during his age-21/22 season, but projecting his batting average and OBP is a more difficult assignment. The draft day price tag figures to only increase as we near the start of the season.
Kelenic has lived up to his billing as the top prep hitter from the 2018 draft, and after climbing from Low-A to Double-A in his first full season, he will soon be knocking on the door of the majors. Acquired from the Mets in last offseason's Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz trade, Kelenic was supposed to be an average runner with a hit-over-power profile, but he seems faster (20-for-27 on SB attempts) and more intent on pulling the ball out to right field. His 17.9 LD% and 52.2 Pull% at Double-A would be concerning marks if it weren't his third level of his age-19/20 season. Still, it is worth tracking how he performs against upper-level pitching now that he can't just hunt fastballs in hitter's counts. A back injury limited him to three games in the Arizona Fall League. The Mariners had an overly aggressive promotion schedule for him last year and there's no reason to expect that to stop in 2020 if he performs.
The Mets cashed out Kelenic before his full-season debut -- if they had not, Seattle reportedly would not have included Edwin Diaz in the deal. Through 12 games in the GCL, he looked like the best player from the 2018 draft. That production was unsustainable (.514 BABIP, 58.3 Pull%), but it made him the talk of the prospect community. The No. 6 overall pick was promoted to the Appy League, where his production normalized and we got a better sense of his true talent. He showed plus speed (11-for-12 on SB attempts), hit for power (.178 ISO) and demonstrated a good handle of the strike zone (11.0 BB%, 19.5 K%). The rep on Kelenic coming into the draft was that he may be the best prep hitter in the class. He had reverse splits (.256/.340/.426 in 200 PA vs. RHP, .409/.490/.636 in 51 PA vs. LHP), which will be something to track at Low-A. Using the whole field more often will allow him to reach his ceiling as a five-category OF2.
More Fantasy News
Good to go for Game 1
OFSeattle Mariners
October 7, 2022
Kelenic (soreness) is starting in left field and batting seventh in Game 1 of the AL Wild Card Series against the Blue Jays on Friday.
ANALYSIS
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Scratched from lineup
OFSeattle Mariners
Undisclosed
October 5, 2022
Kelenic was scratched from the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Tigers after experiencing soreness from being hit by a pitch in the first game of Tuesday's doubleheader, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Banged up, but starting
OFSeattle Mariners
October 5, 2022
Kelenic will start in left field and bat sixth in Wednesday's game against the Tigers, even though manager Scott Servais said that the 23-year-old is still feeling sore after being hit by a pitch in the first game of Tuesday's doubleheader, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Homers twice in win
OFSeattle Mariners
September 29, 2022
Kelenic went 2-for-5 with two home runs, three RBI and three runs scored in Thursday's 10-9 win over the Rangers in extra innings.
ANALYSIS
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Homers in return
OFSeattle Mariners
September 22, 2022
Kelenic went 2-for-3 with a homer, a double, two runs scored, two RBI and a walk in a 9-5 win Thursday in Oakland.
ANALYSIS
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