Jarrod Washburn

The Mariners' worst move last season was not shedding Washburn's $10.35 million 2009 contract when they had the chance, no matter the trade offers. Washburn's 2008 is easily divided into three parts: an awful start, a two-month hot streak and a mediocre finish before his season ended in September due to a strained abdominal muscle. Despite the varied results, Washburn was the same pitcher in his first nine starts when he had a 7.13 ERA and his next 11 starts when he posted a 2.82 ERA. He cut his H/9 from 12.34 to 9.08 during those periods, which corresponds to a drop in BABIP from an unlucky .357 to a more normal .289. But he actually struck out fewer batters (5.78/4.73) and walked more (1.73/3.07) per nine innings. The real difference was in his strand rate, which improved from an abnormally low .592 to an abnormally high .823. Washburn isn't as bad as he was in his first nine starts, and he's not as good as was in his next 11 starts; he's the 5.30 ERA pitcher from his final seven games when his secondary numbers normalized. Which makes sense -- Washburn is a mediocre pitcher. Unfortunately for the Mariners, a highly priced one.

This time last year, Washburn said his mediocre 2006 was a result of being "too laid back in the clubhouse" as he tried to "fit in" with his new Seattle teammates and that "took a little of the fire" out of him. We called poppycock then, and his uninspiring 2007 bore us out. Firey or not, Washburn walked a career-high 67 walks last season, his 3.11 BB/9 was his highest since 2000 when he pitched just 84.1 innings, and his K:BB ratio (1.70) shrank for the fifth consecutive year. More is expected from a No. 2 starter than to last seven innings just eight times in 32 starts. Washburn is a mediocre pitcher and has consistently proven that for five years now. Expect the same this season. Lucky for him, he has two years and $20 million left on his contract.

Washburn signed a four-year, $37.5 million deal with the Mariners last offseason on the strength of a 3.20 ERA in 2005. What the Mariners amazingly failed to notice was Washburn's absurdly out-of-character strand rate. His peripheral stats over the last four years have remained more-or-less constant. But here are his strand rates from 2003-2006, respectively: 73.7 percent, 69.7, 81.8, 69.8. Is it any wonder that his ERA went: 4.43, 4.64, 3.20, 4.67? If the Mariners thought his 2005 strand rate was a repeatable skill they found out in 2006 it wasn't. And if there's still any uncertainty, well, they have three more years to find out.

Washburn rebounded nicely in 2005, just in time to earn a big contract from the Mariners who signed him to a four-year deal. Washburn should continue to produce acceptable output for a middle-of-the-rotation starter.

Perhaps the most comical part of Washburn's injury-shortened 2004 campaign came when he had the audacity to tell the Anaheim papers he was waiting to hear about his selection to the All-Star team. He hasn't pitched well since 2002 and thankfully last season finally lost the title of staff ace. With his ordinary stuff and poor peripherals, he should remain as far away from your squad as you can keep him.

Washburn had an up-and-down season in 2003, looking dominant at times and extremely hittable at others. Ultimately 2003 was a letdown, given his success in the previous two years. The Angels need starters more than they do relievers, so Washburn will remain a fixture in the rotation for the near future. At just 29, expect a bounce back to something in between 2001 and 2002's numbers.

Washburn is arguably the Angels' best starter and one of the league's better left handers. A career-high 18 wins bettered his previous total by seven and he cut his ERA down by more than half a run. His low WHIP is also a major asset, though he is not a huge strikeout pitcher and tends to run out of gas around the eighth inning. Should see the same run support that he saw last season, meaning 15-18 wins is expected.