Joey Lucchesi

Lucchesi's sophomore season appears to be a carbon copy of his rookie campaign but it was a small step back. His strikeout rate fell from 26.5% to 23% while his walk rate increased from 7.9% to 8.2%. In 2018, Lucchesi posted a 4.08 ERA followed by a similar 4.18 mark last season. However, 2018's xFIP and SIERA were 3.45 and 3.64, respectively, in contrast to 2019's 4.36 and 4.48. By estimators, Lucchesi's 2019 ERA should have been almost a run higher than it was in his debut season. Lucchesi is still experimenting with his repertoire so don't count out a rebound. His staple is a 90-mph sinker. Last season, he cut back on his sinker and curve, adding a changeup that generated a promising 17.6% swinging-strike mark and low .235 BABIP. He has more success on pitches requiring less spin. Once he figures out the right combo, he could take the next step. In the meantime, Petco Park offers a safety net to stream.

Deception is the name of the game with Lucchesi; the lefty has a funky delivery and arm slot. The 2016 fourth-round pick was a surprise addition to the rotation out of spring training and enjoyed quite a bit of initial success, posting a 3.23 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 48:15 K:BB over nine starts before a hip strain forced him to the disabled list. It ultimately became clear that the deception could only take Lucchesi so far. Once teams got a better scouting report, the results took a predictable turn for the worse (4.88 ERA, 1.37 WHIP after the break) even as he continued to miss bats at a steady clip. The 7.9% walk rate looks good, but his command is actually lacking in a major way; the emerging stats that attempt to judge a pitcher's intent all point to Lucchesi's command being bad. Right-handers combined for a .339 wOBA against Lucchesi and he had homer trouble at home and on the road. There are better fliers to take in the mid-to-late rounds.