John Means

Means was an All-Star in 2019, though that says far more about the Orioles than about his own talents. His 4.41 FIP and 5.48 xFIP suggested that a fair amount of regression in his 3.60 ERA was due, and that did indeed happen, as he finished 2020 with a 4.53 ERA in 10 starts. While his ERA rose by nearly a run, his underlying numbers generally moved in an encouraging direction. His K% jumped from 19.0 to 23.9, due in part to a jump in fastball velocity from 91.8 to 93.8 mph. He also cut his BB% from 6.0 to 4.0 while increasing his groundball rate from 30.9% to 43.9%. The righty's ERA increase can be traced in large part to his massive jump in HR/FB rate from 9.9% to 21.8%, a number over which a pitcher typically doesn't exercise much control. While the new version of Means certainly isn't special, a locked-in starter who produces a league-average K% and an ERA around 4.50 does have value in deeper leagues.

Means broke camp in a relief role but quickly moved into the rotation, establishing himself as Baltimore's most dependable pitcher over the remainder of the season by winning 12 games -- no small feat on a 54-win team -- while posting a 3.73 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 27 starts. The lefty dealt with shoulder and biceps injuries over the summer, which coincided with his worst stretch of the season (5.18 ERA in July and August), though he rebounded in September and pitched into the seventh inning in five of his last seven starts. While Means does a good job limiting free passes (2.2 BB/9) and hard contact, he doesn't record many strikeouts (7.0 K/9) and allows too many homers (1.3 HR/9) while pitching in a tough division, which limits his fantasy upside. His spot in a weak Orioles rotation is safe, though indicators suggest Means was pitching over his head last season (4.41 FIP and 5.48 xFIP).