Ke'Bryan Hayes

Ke'Bryan Hayes

25-Year-Old Third Baseman3B
Pittsburgh Pirates
2023 Fantasy Outlook
Hayes' power dropped, but his patience improved slightly, and he hit the ball with a little more authority than the previous campaign. A low 28.8% fly ball rate plus a 6.3% HR/FB mark limited Hayes to just six long balls, but if he can loft a few more batted balls while maintaining a 47% hard-hit rate, there's double-digit power in his stick. Hayes' minor league track record indicates he can shave a few points off his 21.8% strikeout rate, boosting production. The key to Hayes' fantasy potential is running as he swiped 20 bags in 25 tries last season, which is in the territory expected to benefit from the new rules. Injuries may have slowed Hayes growth as he dealt with a wrist issue most of 2021, then played through knee, back and shoulder woes last season. The latent power may manifest, but it's best to consider it a bonus and pay for steals with a batting average high enough not to hurt. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
$Signed an eight-year, $70 million contract extension with the Pirates in April of 2022. Contract includes $12 million team option ($6 million buyout) for 2030.
Not in Sunday's lineup
3BPittsburgh Pirates
October 2, 2022
Hayes is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Cardinals.
ANALYSIS
Hayes is 6-for-21 with an RBI, a run and a stolen base over his past five games but will take a seat for Sunday's series finale. Rodolfo Castro will shift to the hot corner while Ji-hwan Bae starts at second base.
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Batting Stats
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2022
2021
2020
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
15
10
35
5
17
1
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
24
7
14
2
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2020
 
 
+22%
OPS vs LHP
2022
 
 
+23%
OPS vs LHP
2021
 
 
+11%
OPS vs LHP
2020
 
 
+62%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2020vs Left .798 311 45 6 26 9 .292 .350 .447
Since 2020vs Right .654 722 70 10 62 21 .241 .310 .344
2022vs Left .758 169 22 4 11 8 .270 .343 .414
2022vs Right .616 391 33 3 30 12 .232 .302 .314
2021vs Left .739 120 18 1 12 0 .279 .325 .414
2021vs Right .666 276 31 5 26 9 .247 .312 .355
2020vs Left 1.403 22 5 1 3 1 .524 .545 .857
2020vs Right .864 55 6 2 6 0 .271 .364 .500
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2020
 
 
+11%
OPS at Home
2022
 
 
+5%
OPS on Road
2021
 
 
+19%
OPS at Home
2020
 
 
+45%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2020Home .732 531 64 8 44 17 .267 .341 .392
Since 2020Away .660 506 53 9 44 13 .243 .300 .359
2022Home .644 272 28 3 19 11 .237 .320 .324
2022Away .673 288 27 4 22 9 .250 .309 .364
2021Home .748 201 25 2 18 6 .284 .343 .404
2021Away .628 195 24 4 20 3 .229 .287 .341
2020Home 1.098 58 11 3 7 0 .353 .431 .667
2020Away .759 23 2 1 2 1 .273 .304 .455
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Stat Review
How does Ke'Bryan Hayes compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
0.39
 
BB Rate
8.6%
 
K Rate
21.8%
 
BABIP
.307
 
ISO
.101
 
AVG
.244
 
OBP
.314
 
SLG
.345
 
OPS
.659
 
wOBA
.296
 
Exit Velocity
91.0 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
30.9%
 
Barrels/PA
2.7%
 
Expected BA
.250
 
Expected SLG
.354
 
Sprint Speed
23.6 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
49.4%
 
Line Drive %
21.8%
 
Fly Ball %
28.8%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Ke'Bryan Hayes
MLB Dynasty Rankings + 10 Rookies for 2023
11 days ago
James Anderson links to his fresh update to the dynasty rankings and profiles 10 rookies he is targeting for 2023, including top prospect Corbin Carroll.
2023 Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Way Too Early Top 300 Draft Ranks
45 days ago
James Anderson provides a way too early top 300 rankings for those who have the itch to start drafting for 2023.
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83 days ago
Mike Barner’s Monday Yahoo picks include Jays starter Jose Berrios against visiting Tampa.
DraftKings MLB: Monday Breakdown
83 days ago
Chris Morgan turns his Monday mound over to Houston’s Framber Valdez in Detroit.
FanDuel MLB: Monday Targets
83 days ago
Framber Valdez hasn't allowed more than three runs in a start since April 19 and pitching against the Tigers who are last in MLB in runs scored and 29th in team OPS.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
Hayes provided the latest reminder not to get overly hyped about amazing rookie debuts, although not everything was his fault. He hit the majors with aplomb in 2020, and homered in his first at-bat of 2021, which set stretching exercises for a few Twitter victory laps. However, Hayes hurt his wrist in the next game, went on the injured list and did not return until June. His overall season was unsurprisingly disappointing given how critical strong wrists are to hitting. He did continue his running ways from the minors, which will ultimately help hold up his fantasy value. He has yet to homer more than 10 times in a professional season, so the wrist injury can only write off so much regarding the power numbers. He will hit high in a terrible Pittsburgh lineup.
With hitting prospects, there is a difference between "hasn't hit for impact power" and "won't hit for impact power." Thanks to a strong hit tool and the fact most of the full-season environments he played in were pitcher-friendly parks, Hayes always fit in the first group. He exceeded even the most optimistic expectations as a rookie. A .450 BABIP obviously propped up his stats to some degree, but his 9.2% barrel rate would have ranked 22nd among qualified hitters, ahead of Mike Trout, Luke Voit and Nelson Cruz, so his performance was more skill than luck. He was successful on his lone steal attempt in 24 games, but with a 79th percentile sprint speed and 25-for-31 success rate in 230 MiLB games from 2018-19, Hayes is a sneaky threat to steal double-digit bases this year. Gold Glove caliber defense at third base ensures everyday playing time, and he should reprise his role as the Pirates No. 2 hitter.
Hayes is a 70-grade defender at third base, has a career 16.8 K% and is an above-average runner who turned 23 this offseason after spending all of 2019 at Triple-A, so there are a lot of positives in his profile. His inability thus far to really impact the baseball is the elephant in the room. He uses the whole field, but his 46.4 GB% would have ranked in the bottom 25% among qualified big leaguers and his 25.5 Hard% is underwhelming for a corner infielder playing with the juiced ball at Triple-A. A modest swing change could unlock another level, and with a new front office in Pittsburgh, it is reasonable to anticipate some player-development improvements. His defense and plate skills will get him an everyday role even if he doesn't unlock more pop, and he could probably go 15/15 as is. If he gets off to a good start, we should see him in the first half.
There are subtleties in Hayes' profile that make him a valuable fantasy commodity, but that are lost on many, which may make him the most underrated player in the prospect universe. He had just eight career homers in 231 games prior to reaching Double-A, then quietly had a power breakout last year that was muted by the extreme pitcher-friendly conditions in Altoona. He finished fourth in the Eastern League with 31 doubles and notched his best full-season ISO (.151) and SLG (.444) figures. His patience (11.2 BB%), bat-to-ball ability (16.5 K%) and all-fields approach (38.8 Pull%, 32.2 Oppo%) portend a plus hit tool and he has the speed to steal 15-to-20 bases annually. He is also a gold-glove caliber defender at third base, so playing time won't be an issue. This is the type of player who blows past his power estimates on minor-league scouting reports and leaves analysts scratching their heads. Given the Pirates' track record, he may be kept down until 2020.
While he does a lot of things well, Hayes has yet to hit for the type of power we associate with quality third base prospects. He is an above-average runner and went 27-for-32 on stolen-base attempts last year. Hayes is also a high-caliber defensive third baseman, so there is no concern about his glove forcing a move. His 15.8 percent strikeout rate was the best mark in the Florida State League among hitters under 22, which not only demonstrates his contact skills, but suggests he has room to make adjustments that could unlock power without compromising his ability to hit for a high average. Additionally, he has a true all-fields approach (36.6 percent to the pull side, 38 percent to the opposite field), so the only thing lacking is that aforementioned power. At 21, he will be one of the youngest hitters at Double-A, so there is still time for him to become a well-rounded hitter, and he has the size (6-foot-1, 210 pounds) to unlock that power with more upper-level instruction.
Hayes got off to a hot start in 2016, hitting .343/.368/.457 in April for Low-A West Virginia. He batted only .236/.305/.374 in 205 plate appearances the rest of the way, but back and rib injuries may have contributed to his woes. The third baseman hasn't shown much power -- he's totaled six homers in two seasons (123 games). However, at 6-foot-1, 210 pounds, he projects to grow into 20-plus homer power down the road to accompany what could be an above-average hit tool. Hayes, who turned 20 in January, remains several seasons away from potentially making an impact in the majors. He will likely spend most of 2017 at High-A Bradenton in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, where he will be tasked with showcasing a more patient approach while driving the ball to all fields.
The son of former major leaguer Charlie Hayes, Pittsburgh took the third baseman with the 32nd pick of the 2015 draft. He did well enough in the Gulf Coast League (.333/.434/.375) to earn a two-week promotion to the New York-Penn League. Though he failed to homer, the 19-year-old is expected to offer some power. He will begin 2016 back in the NYPL this summer or at Low-A West Virginia if the Bucs want to push him to a full-season affiliate for Opening Day. Fantasy owners will want to keep tabs on Hayes as he offers a strong batting average with potential for more, but he should be considered a long-term investment in dynasty formats.
More Fantasy News
Steals 19th base
3BPittsburgh Pirates
October 1, 2022
Hayes went 1-for-4 with a stolen base Friday against the Cardinals.
ANALYSIS
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Out of Tuesday's lineup
3BPittsburgh Pirates
September 27, 2022
Hayes is not in Tuesday's lineup against the Reds, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Back in action Sunday
3BPittsburgh Pirates
September 25, 2022
Hayes (back) is starting at third base and batting fifth Sunday against the Cubs, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Dealing with lower back discomfort
3BPittsburgh Pirates
Back
September 24, 2022
Hayes isn't starting Saturday against the Cubs due to lower back discomfort, Alex Stumpf of DKPittsburghSports.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Sits again Saturday
3BPittsburgh Pirates
September 24, 2022
Hayes will sit for the third straight game Saturday against the Cubs.
ANALYSIS
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