Luis Severino

Luis Severino

28-Year-Old PitcherSP
New York Yankees
2022 Fantasy Outlook
Severino returned to MLB game action 18 months and three weeks after undergoing Tommy John surgery at the end of February in 2020. He made five appearances out of the Yankees' bullpen over the final 10 days of the regular season and into the postseason, giving up one earned run on three hits and two walks while striking out nine in 7.1 innings. While he looked like the same guy on the mound, Severino's average velocity on his four-seamer was 95.4 mph, down from averages of 97.8 mph in 2018 and 96.0 mph in 2019. His slider was also down a couple ticks from the 88 mph it averaged from 2016 through 2018. It's possible he could gain a tick of velocity as he gets even further removed from the surgery, and even if everything remains where it was in 2021, Severino still has premium stuff. Heading into his age-28 season, the biggest concern with the 6-foot-2 righty is quantity of innings. A healthy Severino is the Yankees' second-best starter, so he should be a part of the rotation, but he will likely have some starts skipped and probably won't go much more than five or six innings, even when he's dealing. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#178
ADP
$Signed a four-year, $40 million contract with the Yankees in February of 2019. Contract includes $15 million team option ($2.75 million buyout) for 2023.
Five innings in win
PNew York Yankees
September 21, 2022
Severino (6-3) earned the win Wednesday, allowing one run on two hits and one walk over five innings with six strikeouts against the Pirates.
ANALYSIS
Severino looked good in his return from the injured list , as he had little trouble with the Pittsburgh lineup. He needed just 64 pitches to hold the opposition to three baserunners through five innings. The Yankees were up 6-1 when manager Aaron Boone took Severino out of the game, so it is possible they would have let him go longer if the game were more competitive. He is tentatively scheduled to face off against Toronto next week in what could be a two-start period for him.
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Pitching Stats
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2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
86
Last 10 Games
87
Last 5 Games
75
How many pitches does Luis Severino generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Luis Severino generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-13%
BAA vs RHP
2022
 
 
-6%
BAA vs RHP
2021
 
 
-82%
BAA vs RHP
2020
No Stats
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2020vs Left .216 164 31 9 33 8 0 8
Since 2020vs Right .189 225 78 18 38 8 0 6
2022vs Left .213 160 31 9 32 7 0 8
2022vs Right .201 207 70 17 37 8 0 6
2021vs Left .333 4 0 0 1 1 0 0
2021vs Right .059 18 8 1 1 0 0 0
2020vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-9%
ERA at Home
2022
 
 
-14%
ERA at Home
2021
No Stats
2020
No Stats
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2020Home 3.02 1.06 53.2 4 1 0 10.9 2.2 1.3
Since 2020Away 3.32 0.95 43.1 3 2 0 9.1 2.9 1.2
2022Home 3.14 1.06 51.2 4 1 0 11.0 2.3 1.4
2022Away 3.66 1.02 39.1 2 2 0 8.7 3.0 1.4
2021Home 0.00 1.00 2.0 0 0 0 9.0 0.0 0.0
2021Away 0.00 0.25 4.0 1 0 0 13.5 2.3 0.0
2020Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
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Stat Review
How does Luis Severino compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
3.88
 
K/9
10.0
 
BB/9
2.6
 
HR/9
1.4
 
Fastball
96.2 mph
 
ERA
3.36
 
WHIP
1.04
 
BABIP
.261
 
GB/FB
1.37
 
Left On Base
79.6%
 
Exit Velocity
81.8 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.5%
 
Spin Rate
2179 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
23.3%
 
Swinging Strike
12.7%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Luis Severino
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2 days ago
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Todd's Takes: Passing Judgment
4 days ago
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5 days ago
Mike Barner recommends checking out a Dodgers bat stack Wednesday against Madison Bumgarner and the Diamondbacks.
FanDuel MLB: Wednesday Targets
5 days ago
Chris Morgan looks over Wednesday's slate as Robbie Ray tries to shut down the A's in Oakland.
Fantasy Baseball Injury Report: Juli-Oh No
6 days ago
Jeff Stotts looks at some key injury situations in the waning days of the regular season, including back woes for Mariners rookie phenom Julio Rodriguez.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
Dreams of a Gerrit Cole-Severino 1-2 punch atop the Yankees' rotation were shattered last February when Severino was diagnosed with an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. It was a brutal blow for the young right-hander, who made only three regular-season appearances in 2019 due to lat and shoulder issues. Prior to the run of injuries, Severino was emerging as one of the game's most promising hurlers, winning 33 games and registering a 3.18 ERA between 2017 and 2018. Plenty of pitchers have gone on to find success after TJ surgery, so there's no reason to rule out a return to form for Severino, though there's bound to be some rust -- and a strict innings limit -- upon his eventual return. Severino isn't expected to be ready to rejoin the rotation until well after the start of the regular season, further capping his 2021 value. He may not be a viable option in fantasy leagues until 2022.
Simply put, Severino is one of the best pitchers in MLB. The question heading into 2020 is, are the lat and shoulder issues that cost him all but three regular-season starts behind him? Initially diagnosed with a sore rotator cuff early in spring training, Severino was later revealed to have also suffered a Grade 2 lat strain which is what was responsible for the lengthy absence. When Severino returned, his velocity was just a tick below normal, offering some optimism for a full recovery. Severino is unfairly penalized for his home venue. Yankee Stadium is plus for homers but suppresses runs. This helps explain his success in the Bronx where his career ERA and WHIP are a tad better than on the road. Most will want to wait until the spring before investing, creating a buying opportunity in early drafts. However, even if healthy, Severino's workload will likely be lower than other aces.
Severino had an amazing season considering he makes his home starts in Williamsport Northeast. Most of his metrics were a carbon copy of his 2017 breakout season. He allowed two or fewer earned runs in 19 starts and struck out eight or more hitters in 13 starts. All kidding aside about his home ballpark, Sevvy was a monster at home, notching a 2.74 ERA while holding the opposition to a .217/.270/.337 line over 92 innings. The road games were where he was more mortal, as he had a 3.99 ERA and allowed a .255/.303/.416 line over 99 innings away from Yankee Stadium. It looked as if he would cruise to a Cy Young Award at the break, going into it with a 2.31 ERA and 14 wins. Severino won five games in the second half with a 5.57 ERA. He wasn't that bad (3.37 FIP), but he was giving up significantly more line drives while generating fewer groundballs. On top of that, he injured his shoulder warming up for his first spring training game and is expected to start the season on the injured list.
A year later than expected, Severino proved that the flashes he showed as a rookie in the second half of 2015 were indicative of his upside. While Masahiro Tanaka scuffled in the first half, Severino thrived, mixing his arsenal of a high-90s fastball, slider and improved changeup effectively to become one of the best starters in the American League. He threw more pitches in the strike zone than ever before (49.3 percent), held hitters to a lower contact rate on those pitches (82.3 percent), and made hitters chase pitches outside the zone at the highest rate of his career (31.3 percent). Home runs are still his greatest weakness, and he allowed 15 in 97 innings at Yankee Stadium compared to six in 96.1 innings on the road, but as long as he keeps his walk rate (2.4 BB/9) in check, the long balls are unlikely to derail him. Severino will likely be treated as a top-10 starting pitcher in most draft rooms for 2018, but the increased price and hype appear to be warranted.
Severino had a breakout stint as a 21-year-old in 2015, working to a 2.89 ERA over 11 starts and looking poised to join the top of the rotation. Though there were signs that he might take a bit of a step back -- a 4.44 FIP, struggles with the long ball, and an unsustainably high strand rate of 83.3 percent -- few could have predicted how disastrous the 2016 campaign would be. Through seven starts, he was 0-6 with a 7.46 ERA and had allowed eight home runs in just 35 innings, leading to a demotion to the minors to straighten things out. Severino joined the bullpen after coming back up to the majors, where he was terrific to the tune of a 0.39 ERA with 25 strikeouts in 23.1 innings. Despite his success in the bullpen, the Yankees will likely try again with the young righty as a starter in 2017, though he proved too unreliable last season for owners to confidently count on him out of the gate. As a low-risk gamble, however, he could pay off handsomely.
The Yankees bypassed the starting pitching trade market in July, instead declaring Severino the solution to their problems. They were right and Severino was dominant down the stretch. There are some issues to iron out, including the home runs, but he showed an impressive three-pitch mix that was effective against both righties and lefties. His fastball carries him which is often the case when a guy throws 95-96 mph on average. He gets both swings-and-misses and groundballs at a good clip with it, but his changeup is an above-average strikeout weapon and an elite groundball inducer (62%). The slider is the weakest of the three, but still showed flashes of success. With 162 combined innings in 2015, Severino should have few, if any, innings restrictions in 2016. He's set to join Masahiro Tanaka atop the Yankees' rotation and could be a star in the making.
No pitcher in the minor leagues enhanced their stock as much as Severino during the 2014 season. He climbed two full levels, posting a 127:27 K:BB ratio and a 2.46 ERA in 113.1 innings between three stops, thanks to a mid-90s heater and a slider and changeup that work well off said fastball. Severino, who finished the season as a 20-year-old at Double-A Trenton, has never failed at a level, but he has never been truly tested. In 24 starts last season, he gave up more than three earned runs on just one occasion. This is what makes his upcoming season so intriguing. Despite being just six feet tall, he weighs almost 200 pounds, so he should be able to handle a full season. He also happens to pitch in a system where advanced starting pitching will be pushed aggressively, as the Yankees' starting rotation is chock-full of injury concerns and below-average options. Assuming he was unowned going into last season, he should be a top-5 pick in dynasty drafts in 2015.
More Fantasy News
Activated prior to start
PNew York Yankees
September 21, 2022
Severino (lat) was reinstated from the 60-day injured list ahead of Wednesday's start against the Pirates.
ANALYSIS
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Returning from IL on Wednesday
PNew York Yankees
Lat
September 19, 2022
Yankees manager Aaron Boone confirmed over the weekend that Severino (lat) will return from the 60-day injured list to start Wednesday's home game against the Pirates, Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News reports.
ANALYSIS
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Next rehab start coming Thursday
PNew York Yankees
Lat
September 10, 2022
Severino (lat) will make another rehab start Thursday, Lindsey Adler of The Athletic reports.
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Could require another rehab start
PNew York Yankees
Lat
September 10, 2022
Severino (lat) said Saturday that he could require another rehab start prior to rejoining the Yankees, Marly Rivera of ESPN.com reports.
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Could return next week
PNew York Yankees
Lat
September 9, 2022
Severino (lat) is eligible to return from the injured list Sunday and could be activated for the Yankees' two-game series against Boston that begins Sept. 13, per MLB.com.
ANALYSIS
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