Shane Baz

Shane Baz

24-Year-Old PitcherSP
Tampa Bay Rays
Out
Injury Elbow
Est. Return 3/28/2024
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Baz underwent Tommy John surgery in late September of 2022 and did not pitch in 2023. That was the culmination of a journey which saw him reach the big leagues for good in June of 2022 before going down with an injury just one month and six starts later. The pitcher and the club had hoped to avoid surgery, but succumbed two months later. The 2024 season will see Baz make just his 10th career start at the big league level, and even dating back to his minor league days, has never pitched more than 82 innings in any one season. His career 21.7% K-BB rate and .216 opponents batting average is very enticing, but a 24-year old with zero track record of durability coming back from a major surgery makes him a significant gamble for fantasy managers playing the risk/reward game in drafts. Baz has SP3 upside, but it is highly unlikely he wlll provide enough workload to justify drafting him as such. Set expectations for 100 innings and you should be fine. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
#191
ADP
$Signed a one-year contract with the Rays in March of 2022.
To have delayed start to season
PTampa Bay Rays
Elbow
February 16, 2024
Baz (elbow) expects to begin the season in extended spring training before starting a rehab assignment, Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
ANALYSIS
Baz threw around 20 pitches in his first bullpen session of spring training Friday and felt good afterward. The right-hander suggested afterward that he may not be able to contribute to the big-league club until the summer. The Rays have announced no formal plan, but it appears to be a near certainty Baz won't begin the regular season on the 26-man roster.
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Pitching Stats
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2023
2022
2021
2020
2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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Minor League Game Log
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2021
 
 
-14%
BAA vs LHP
2023
No Stats
2022
 
 
-41%
BAA vs LHP
2021
 
 
-73%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2021vs Left .196 63 19 7 11 2 0 3
Since 2021vs Right .227 103 29 5 22 3 1 5
2023vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2022vs Left .175 45 13 5 7 1 0 2
2022vs Right .299 72 17 4 20 3 1 3
2021vs Left .250 18 6 2 4 1 0 1
2021vs Right .067 31 12 1 2 0 0 2
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2021
 
 
-74%
ERA at Home
2023
No Stats
2022
 
 
-75%
ERA at Home
2021
 
 
-50%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2021Home 1.71 0.81 21.0 2 0 0 11.1 2.1 1.3
Since 2021Away 6.52 1.45 19.1 1 2 0 10.2 3.3 2.3
2023Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2022Home 1.74 1.06 10.1 0 0 0 10.5 3.5 0.9
2022Away 7.02 1.50 16.2 1 2 0 9.7 2.7 2.2
2021Home 1.69 0.56 10.2 2 0 0 11.8 0.8 1.7
2021Away 3.38 1.13 2.2 0 0 0 13.5 6.8 3.4
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Prospect Rankings History
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Shane Baz See More
Spring Training Job Battles: AL East
10 days ago
Ryan Boyer breaks down every job that's up for grabs in the AL East this spring, including a pair of spots in the Orioles' infield.
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16 days ago
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RotoWire Roundtable: Updated Fantasy Baseball Top-300 Rankings
23 days ago
It's still all Ronald Acuna at the top, but Julio Rodriguez has now claimed the second spot in the latest edition of the RotoWire Roundtable rankings.
RotoWire Roundtable: Fantasy Baseball Top 300 January Update
46 days ago
The RotoWire Roundtable crew shares their latest rankings, with changes as high as the early first round.
RotoWire Roundtable: Fantasy Baseball Top 300 December Update
88 days ago
From Ronald Acuna Jr. to Ryan Jeffers, the RotoWire Roundtable crew shares their updated top-300 rankings.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
If you play in a reset league format, you can stop reading this outlook. If you are in a keeeper or a dynasty league, you are unlikely to see any work out of Baz at the big league level in 2023 as he recovers from a late September Tommy John Surgery. It is unfair to compare the situation to Tyler Glasnow as that surgery happened in early August. That then puts us into the Justin Verlander high bar of returning after a year off and winning the Cy Young award. Baz is an extremely talented arm whose high water mark for innings in a single season, even when combining minors and majors, is 92 innings in 2021. He hsa worked just over 40 innings as a big league pitcher and has given up 1.8 homers per nine innings in that time, so perhaps the long rehab process can give him a sorely needed changeup or maybe even reset his career path to a dominant reliever as he was once projected in his time with Pittsburgh.
Unfortunately, Baz needed surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow early in spring training, and it seems like we'll be waiting until at least May for him to rejoin the big-league rotation. He throws four pitches, all of which get whiffs and all of which are thrown much harder than league average -- his 83-mph curveball is his slowest pitch. His fastball, slider and curveball are particularly elite offerings. Baz dominated at Double-A, Triple-A and the majors last season, building up to 94.1 total innings. He logged elite strikeout rates (north of 36%), elite walk rates (no worse than 6.2%) and elite batting averages against (no worse than .190). There is nothing from a skill standpoint that should give redraft or dynasty managers pause, but this elbow procedure will likely prevent him from building up past 120 innings this season. The Rays will probably send Baz to Triple-A once fully healthy so that he can get stretched out and essentially simulate his lost spring training.
While Baz didn't get to take part in a normal 2020 minor-league season, he did receive chances to face big-league bats during the summer, and the Rays undoubtedly kept a close eye on the prospect at their alternate training site. The 21-year-old hasn't pitched above Low-A, where he cruised to a 2.99 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with an 87:37 K:BB across 81.1 innings in 2019, but his stuff remains electric and could result in him being fast-tracked to the majors. Baz's command is something to watch in the coming years, as he hasn't finished with a walk rate below 10% in his first three seasons of professional ball. It's also worrisome that Baz remains with Tampa Bay, as the organization tends to ruin the development of potential top-end starters.
The player to be named later in the infamous Chris Archer trade, Baz now carries more real-life and dynasty-league value than Archer. A 6-foot-2 righty whose fastball touches triple-digits with nasty late movement, Baz's development has gone better with the Rays than it would have with the Pirates -- he ditched his two-seamer for a four-seamer and started favoring his 70-grade slider over his average curveball. Unfortunately for fantasy purposes, Tampa Bay is arguably the worst non-Rockies franchise for a non-elite pitching prospect to come up in. Most teams would give Baz every chance to develop into a No. 2 or No. 3 starter, but the Rays could very easily opt to use him in a role that suppresses his fantasy value. He has never logged a walk rate below 10%, and he will need to improve his below-average command by at least a full grade to ultimately end up as a traditional starter.
One of the better PTBNL in recent memory, it was announced in mid-August that Baz was heading to Tampa Bay as the third and final piece in the Chris Archer trade. The 6-foot-3 righty was the No. 12 overall pick in 2017 and received a $4.1 million bonus, but has yet to pitch above rookie ball and has not always produced results typically associated with high-end pitching prospects. His best stretch was 10 starts in the Appalachian League prior to the trade, when he had a 26.1 K% and 62.0 GB% -- his K% would have ranked eighth and his GB% would have ranked second in the league. However, he made two more Appy League starts after the trade, the first of which tanked his statistics (5 ER in 1.1 IP). Baz's monster mid-90s fastball is a worm killer that misses plenty of bats. He also has two breaking balls with plus potential and a developing changeup. It is a frontline arsenal, but if he doesn't throw more strikes he will end up in the bullpen.
A prep righty with a plus-plus fastball and the potential for a plus slider and plus curveball, Baz's upside is up there with any pitcher from the 2017 draft class (non MacKenzie Gore division). The Pirates landed the electric Texan with the 12th pick and a slightly over-slot $4.1 million bonus, and he was sent to debut as the youngest pitcher in the Gulf Coast League two weeks after his 18th birthday. Naturally there were some early struggles, most notably a 19:14 K:BB and a .289 batting average against. This actually opens up an opportunity for dynasty-league owners, as Baz could have been an extremely trendy option in drafts if he had gone out and shoved, but because his box score statistics were somewhat underwhelming, he could end up being one of this year's bargains. At 6-foot-3, 190 pounds, he has a prototypical starter's frame. His command needs some work, and his secondaries need refining, but he meets most of the requirements we look for in future frontline starters.
More Fantasy News
Will be built up slowly
PTampa Bay Rays
Elbow
February 13, 2024
Rays president of baseball operations Erik Neander said Tuesday that Baz (elbow) will be built up slowly coming out of spring training, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
ANALYSIS
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Throwing bullpens
PTampa Bay Rays
Elbow
September 9, 2023
Baz (elbow) is long tossing and throwing bullpens as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery, Ryan Bass of Bally Sports Sun reports.
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Moves to 60-day IL
PTampa Bay Rays
Elbow
April 13, 2023
Tampa Bay transferred Baz (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Thursday, Neil Solondz of the Rays Radio Network reports.
ANALYSIS
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Officially placed on IL
PTampa Bay Rays
Elbow
March 29, 2023
The Rays placed Baz (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
ANALYSIS
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Nearing throwing program
PTampa Bay Rays
Elbow
March 3, 2023
Baz (elbow) is on track to begin a throwing program in 3-4 weeks, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
ANALYSIS
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