Shane Baz

Shane Baz

23-Year-Old PitcherSP
Tampa Bay Rays
Out
Injury Elbow
Est. Return 2/1/2024
2023 Fantasy Outlook
If you play in a reset league format, you can stop reading this outlook. If you are in a keeeper or a dynasty league, you are unlikely to see any work out of Baz at the big league level in 2023 as he recovers from a late September Tommy John Surgery. It is unfair to compare the situation to Tyler Glasnow as that surgery happened in early August. That then puts us into the Justin Verlander high bar of returning after a year off and winning the Cy Young award. Baz is an extremely talented arm whose high water mark for innings in a single season, even when combining minors and majors, is 92 innings in 2021. He hsa worked just over 40 innings as a big league pitcher and has given up 1.8 homers per nine innings in that time, so perhaps the long rehab process can give him a sorely needed changeup or maybe even reset his career path to a dominant reliever as he was once projected in his time with Pittsburgh. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
$Signed a $4.1 million contract with the Pirates in June of 2017. Traded to the Rays in August of 2018.
Tommy John surgery completed
PTampa Bay Rays
Elbow
September 28, 2022
Baz (elbow) underwent successful Tommy John surgery in Dallas on Wednesday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
ANALYSIS
As anticipated, Baz's surgery involved nothing more complex than the traditional UCL repair, but the timeline associated with the procedure means that Baz will be sidelined through the 2023 season. He could be ready to resume facing hitters by the second half of next season, which should put him on track to enter 2024 spring training at full health and ready to reclaim a spot in the Tampa Bay rotation. Baz made just six starts this season due to right elbow issues that weren't permanently resolved by the arthroscopic procedure he underwent in late March.
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Pitching Stats
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2022
2021
2020
2022 MLB Game Log
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Scoring
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DraftKings
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Head2Head
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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Minor League Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
74
Last 10 Games
74
Last 5 Games
79
How many pitches does Shane Baz generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Shane Baz generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-14%
BAA vs LHP
2022
 
 
-41%
BAA vs LHP
2021
 
 
-73%
BAA vs RHP
2020
No Stats
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2020vs Left .196 63 19 7 11 2 0 3
Since 2020vs Right .227 103 29 5 22 3 1 5
2022vs Left .175 45 13 5 7 1 0 2
2022vs Right .299 72 17 4 20 3 1 3
2021vs Left .250 18 6 2 4 1 0 1
2021vs Right .067 31 12 1 2 0 0 2
2020vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-74%
ERA at Home
2022
 
 
-75%
ERA at Home
2021
 
 
-50%
ERA at Home
2020
No Stats
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2020Home 1.71 0.81 21.0 2 0 0 11.1 2.1 1.3
Since 2020Away 6.52 1.45 19.1 1 2 0 10.2 3.3 2.3
2022Home 1.74 1.06 10.1 0 0 0 10.5 3.5 0.9
2022Away 7.02 1.50 16.2 1 2 0 9.7 2.7 2.2
2021Home 1.69 0.56 10.2 2 0 0 11.8 0.8 1.7
2021Away 3.38 1.13 2.2 0 0 0 13.5 6.8 3.4
2020Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Shane Baz compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
3.33
 
K/9
10.0
 
BB/9
3.0
 
HR/9
1.7
 
Fastball
96.0 mph
 
ERA
5.00
 
WHIP
1.33
 
BABIP
.323
 
GB/FB
1.55
 
Left On Base
72.4%
 
Exit Velocity
83.8 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
0.0%
 
Spin Rate
2440 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
32.9%
 
Swinging Strike
13.7%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Shane Baz
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63 days ago
For his end-of-year-wrap-up, Erik Halterman goes by round to list his risers to see how they performed vs. their earned auction value ranking, starting with Mookie Betts in Round 1.
Mound Musings: The “Kids on Parade” Watch List for 2023
71 days ago
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88 days ago
Ryan Rufe goes over the moves he made and the lessons he learned while managing his NFBC Main Event team over the last two months.
Todd's Takes: Arsenals and Angles
99 days ago
Todd Zola analyzes pitchers with limited arsenals before tackling the most interesting fantasy fall-out from Wednesday's schedule.
American League Trade Deadline Reactions
128 days ago
Jeff Erickson analyzes each American League team's deals at the deadline, with Luis Castillo looking like the best player who moved from the NL to the AL.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
Unfortunately, Baz needed surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow early in spring training, and it seems like we'll be waiting until at least May for him to rejoin the big-league rotation. He throws four pitches, all of which get whiffs and all of which are thrown much harder than league average -- his 83-mph curveball is his slowest pitch. His fastball, slider and curveball are particularly elite offerings. Baz dominated at Double-A, Triple-A and the majors last season, building up to 94.1 total innings. He logged elite strikeout rates (north of 36%), elite walk rates (no worse than 6.2%) and elite batting averages against (no worse than .190). There is nothing from a skill standpoint that should give redraft or dynasty managers pause, but this elbow procedure will likely prevent him from building up past 120 innings this season. The Rays will probably send Baz to Triple-A once fully healthy so that he can get stretched out and essentially simulate his lost spring training.
While Baz didn't get to take part in a normal 2020 minor-league season, he did receive chances to face big-league bats during the summer, and the Rays undoubtedly kept a close eye on the prospect at their alternate training site. The 21-year-old hasn't pitched above Low-A, where he cruised to a 2.99 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with an 87:37 K:BB across 81.1 innings in 2019, but his stuff remains electric and could result in him being fast-tracked to the majors. Baz's command is something to watch in the coming years, as he hasn't finished with a walk rate below 10% in his first three seasons of professional ball. It's also worrisome that Baz remains with Tampa Bay, as the organization tends to ruin the development of potential top-end starters.
The player to be named later in the infamous Chris Archer trade, Baz now carries more real-life and dynasty-league value than Archer. A 6-foot-2 righty whose fastball touches triple-digits with nasty late movement, Baz's development has gone better with the Rays than it would have with the Pirates -- he ditched his two-seamer for a four-seamer and started favoring his 70-grade slider over his average curveball. Unfortunately for fantasy purposes, Tampa Bay is arguably the worst non-Rockies franchise for a non-elite pitching prospect to come up in. Most teams would give Baz every chance to develop into a No. 2 or No. 3 starter, but the Rays could very easily opt to use him in a role that suppresses his fantasy value. He has never logged a walk rate below 10%, and he will need to improve his below-average command by at least a full grade to ultimately end up as a traditional starter.
One of the better PTBNL in recent memory, it was announced in mid-August that Baz was heading to Tampa Bay as the third and final piece in the Chris Archer trade. The 6-foot-3 righty was the No. 12 overall pick in 2017 and received a $4.1 million bonus, but has yet to pitch above rookie ball and has not always produced results typically associated with high-end pitching prospects. His best stretch was 10 starts in the Appalachian League prior to the trade, when he had a 26.1 K% and 62.0 GB% -- his K% would have ranked eighth and his GB% would have ranked second in the league. However, he made two more Appy League starts after the trade, the first of which tanked his statistics (5 ER in 1.1 IP). Baz's monster mid-90s fastball is a worm killer that misses plenty of bats. He also has two breaking balls with plus potential and a developing changeup. It is a frontline arsenal, but if he doesn't throw more strikes he will end up in the bullpen.
A prep righty with a plus-plus fastball and the potential for a plus slider and plus curveball, Baz's upside is up there with any pitcher from the 2017 draft class (non MacKenzie Gore division). The Pirates landed the electric Texan with the 12th pick and a slightly over-slot $4.1 million bonus, and he was sent to debut as the youngest pitcher in the Gulf Coast League two weeks after his 18th birthday. Naturally there were some early struggles, most notably a 19:14 K:BB and a .289 batting average against. This actually opens up an opportunity for dynasty-league owners, as Baz could have been an extremely trendy option in drafts if he had gone out and shoved, but because his box score statistics were somewhat underwhelming, he could end up being one of this year's bargains. At 6-foot-3, 190 pounds, he has a prototypical starter's frame. His command needs some work, and his secondaries need refining, but he meets most of the requirements we look for in future frontline starters.
More Fantasy News
Requires Tommy John surgery
PTampa Bay Rays
Elbow
September 24, 2022
Baz will undergo Tommy John surgery and won't play during the 2023 season, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
ANALYSIS
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Done for season
PTampa Bay Rays
Elbow
September 15, 2022
Baz (elbow) will not return this season, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
ANALYSIS
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Will begin throwing program Monday
PTampa Bay Rays
Elbow
August 25, 2022
Baz (elbow) said that he's been cleared to resume a throwing program Monday and remains hopeful he'll return from the 60-day injured list before the end of the season, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
ANALYSIS
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Shifts to 60-day injured list
PTampa Bay Rays
Elbow
July 16, 2022
Baz (elbow) was transferred to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Neil Solondz of the Rays Radio Network reports.
ANALYSIS
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Goes on IL with elbow sprain
PTampa Bay Rays
Elbow
July 14, 2022
The Rays placed Baz on the 15-day injured list Thursday with a right elbow sprain after he experienced discomfort while playing catch Tuesday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. He'll receive a platelet-rich plasma injection for the elbow and will rest and rehab for a month before being re-evaluated, according to Neil Solondz of the Rays Radio Network.
ANALYSIS
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