Tyler Lyons

Over the past three seasons, Lyons has been all over the place. The strikeout and walk rates were good in 2015 and 2016, but his home run rates were atrocious and yet his ERA stayed below 4.00 because most were solo shots and he stranded runners. Last season, he had a huge jump in strikeout rate, from 24.6 percent to 30.9 percent, and he finally kept the ball in the park (0.50 HR/9) and continued to strand runners at a high clip (79.3 percent). His left-on-base (LOB%) rate over the past three seasons has been somewhere between 79 and 85 percent, which is an elite level for even the best of relievers. Either Lyons is a lot better than we give him credit for, or he is headed into trouble with regression to the mean in his home run rate as well as his strand rate. The Cardinals are expected to trade for or sign a closer this offseason, but if they strike out on both fronts, Lyons would be in the ninth-inning mix.

Until going down with a knee injury in July, all signs had been pointing up for Lyons. After throwing pitching to a 5.19 ERA in the first month of the season, he posted a lower ERA in each of the following months while increasing his strikeout rate along the way, culminating in a career-best 3.38 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over 48 innings. He showed incredible stamina and versatility from the bullpen before going down with the injury. While his 24.6 percent strikeout rate is incredibly intriguing, prospective owners should be wary of home runs, as Lyons has yielded 1.5 HR/9 over the last two years. After undergoing knee surgery in early November, Lyons faces a five- to six-month recovery window, putting his availability for the start of the regular season in jeopardy. Once he's ready to return, he'll likely reprise his role in the Cards' bullpen.

Lyons picked up eight mostly-spot starts for the Cardinals in 2015 while throwing 60 innings and making 17 total appearances. The 27-year-old lefty posted a solid 3.75 ERA and 1.23 WHIP while striking out an even 60. With Lance Lynn now out for the 2016 season it's possible a strong spring could earn Lyons a spot in the back-end of the rotation, though the Cards' acquisition of Mike Leake clouds the picture. Lyons is a good enough pitcher that he could carve out a full-time rotation role on many MLB teams, but for the Cardinals the most likely scenario has him spending a full season with the major league club in a similar role as last season, moving in and out of the rotation as needed.

Lyons bounced around between three different levels for the Cardinals in 2014, pitching mostly in Triple-A with a single game in Double-A and 11 appearances (four starts) for the Cardinals. The 26-year-old lefty posted average numbers again but the Cardinals like his versatility, using him in spot starts and also in long- and short-relief stints. This setup is unlikely to change in 2015, meaning his fantasy value is probably slim-to-none, and almost always uncertain. He'll have no trouble sticking around with the Cardinals as he tries to grow into a consistent MLB starting pitcher, however unlikely that may be, as the Cardinals are happy to continue using him as the swiss army knife of their bullpen.

In his first season in the big leagues, Lyons posted a 4.75 ERA and struggled both as a starter and reliever while bouncing between Triple-A and the majors. He's still just 26 and his xFIP (3.84) suggests that he pitched better than his initial numbers indicate, but he's likely to serve as organizational depth for the Cardinals in 2014 probably working in long relief out of the bullpen. The Cardinals will likely have three pitchers ahead of Lyons competing for the fifth spot in their rotation, so Lyons would need some injuries and excellent pitching to make his way into the rotation.