Victor Robles

Victor Robles

25-Year-Old OutfielderOF
Washington Nationals
2022 Fantasy Outlook
Are we still dreaming of the peak 2019 season for Victor Robles with 17 home runs, 28 stolen bases, and a .255 batting average? It seems that way since Robles compiled five home runs and 12 stolen bases with a .209 batting average in 558 PA (2020-2021). Robles rocks a healthy 24.5% LD%, but the contact quality stinks with a career Barrel% of 3.8%. Even the exit velocity on flyballs and line drives, Robles ranked 130th in 2019, last in 2020, and 226th in 2021. Teams have shifted more against Robles with 12.9% in 2019, 22.9% in 2020, and 29.2% in 2021. The career 47% Pull% led to a .256 wOBA against the shift in 2021 down from .260 in 2020 and .328 in 2019. With an ADP past pick 350, we're hoping Robles bounces back for steals. However, the poor contact quality, plus other concerns might limit the upside. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#474
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $1.65 million contract with the Nationals in April of 2022.
Steals 15th base
OFWashington Nationals
September 25, 2022
Robles went 2-for-4 with a stolen base in a 6-1 win Sunday in Miami.
ANALYSIS
Robles bunted for a single in the fourth and stole second base and lined a single to right in the seventh. It was his 15th stolen base in 17 tries and just his second stolen base since Aug. 3. He's put together his best offensive month in September, compiling a .275/.295/.400 slash line in 14 games. Both his hits Sunday came against right-handed pitching, a noteworthy achievement for someone with a .193 batting average against righties this season.
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Batting Stats
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2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
11
1
9
36
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
4
2
13
28
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2020
 
 
+26%
OPS vs LHP
2022
 
 
+50%
OPS vs LHP
2021
 
 
+8%
OPS vs RHP
2020
 
 
+52%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2020vs Left .703 302 42 3 23 10 .259 .348 .355
Since 2020vs Right .556 639 56 8 43 17 .199 .268 .288
2022vs Left .759 137 23 2 14 6 .295 .341 .418
2022vs Right .506 250 19 4 18 9 .190 .245 .261
2021vs Left .572 112 13 1 4 2 .176 .330 .242
2021vs Right .617 257 24 1 15 6 .214 .300 .317
2020vs Left .817 53 6 0 5 2 .326 .404 .413
2020vs Right .536 132 13 3 10 2 .185 .250 .286
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2020
 
 
+2%
OPS on Road
2022
 
 
+23%
OPS at Home
2021
 
 
+4%
OPS at Home
2020
 
 
+84%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2020Home .596 452 44 9 36 12 .211 .285 .311
Since 2020Away .606 492 54 2 30 15 .222 .300 .306
2022Home .658 187 22 5 20 8 .246 .290 .368
2022Away .534 200 20 1 12 7 .209 .268 .266
2021Home .619 168 15 2 8 2 .209 .331 .288
2021Away .593 201 22 0 11 6 .199 .291 .301
2020Home .432 97 7 2 8 2 .146 .196 .236
2020Away .794 91 12 1 7 2 .304 .389 .405
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Stat Review
How does Victor Robles compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
0.17
 
BB Rate
4.4%
 
K Rate
25.6%
 
BABIP
.297
 
ISO
.089
 
AVG
.227
 
OBP
.279
 
SLG
.316
 
OPS
.595
 
wOBA
.267
 
Exit Velocity
84.2 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
21.8%
 
Barrels/PA
2.1%
 
Expected BA
.200
 
Expected SLG
.273
 
Sprint Speed
25.1 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
40.1%
 
Line Drive %
20.7%
 
Fly Ball %
39.2%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
Last offseason, much was made of Robles' poor Statcast profile. Some pointed out his average exit velocity suffers with bunts being included, while others suggested that with his legs, Robles doesn't need to hit the ball hard. Those remaining skeptical proved prescient as Robles never got untracked, losing playing time down the stretch. Not only did Robles add six points to his K%, but he also increased his launch angle. This may be conducive to power, but when you don't hit the ball with much authority, seeing-eye singles and infield hits become cans of corn. While the reason was not given, Robles missed several weeks of summer camp, so there's a chance he didn't play the 2020 season at full strength. Still just 24 years old, it's too soon to give up on Robles, though planning a draft strategy around his steals is a mistake. It's better to consider Robles a stolen-base contributor, not a savior.
After a hyperextended elbow cost Robles a chance at regular run in 2018, he was turned loose in 2019, much to the delight of fantasy players. While he was below league average with the bat by real-world measures, he was a big plus in the rotisserie game. What dinged him in real life: a 5.7 BB% and .419 SLG. The batted-ball numbers from his first full MLB season are downright ugly, but Robles was only 22 years old for most of the year and he uses his legs to beat out a bunch of those weakly-hit balls (18 infield hits). He ranked near the top in sprint speed and led all outfielders by a mile in Outs Above Average, so he should have plenty of room to work through any cold stretches at the plate. There is injury risk here given all the running, diving and HBPs -- he was hit by 25 pitches last season -- but with stolen bases trending downward league wide, Robles will be treated as a hot commodity.
It may seem like Robles has been around forever, but he does not turn 22 until May 19. Robles played just four games at Triple-A before hyperextending his left elbow, and did not return until late July. With the exception of stealing 14 bases in 40 games, Robles' performance at Triple-A was not necessarily befitting of top-five prospect. However, the only International League hitters who logged 100 PA and were younger than Robles were Ronald Acuna and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He also only played 37 games at Double-A in 2017, so he was pushed aggressively in addition to dealing with the elbow injury. Robles has 70-grade speed that could manifest in 30-plus steals as early as this season. He has enough power to hit 15-plus home runs and should hit at least .270 with normal luck. He will likely begin the year at the bottom of the lineup, but could earn one of the top two spots in a year or two.
In a landscape where steals are increasingly difficult to find, Robles' top-of-the-scale speed gives him a leg up on most of the game's top prospects. Statcast clocked Robles at 11.12 seconds from home to third, edging out Trea Turner (11.14 seconds) for the fastest Nationals triple since tracking began in 2015. Like Turner, Robles is not a two-category singles hitter. In addition to a hit tool that has received future plus-plus grades, he has burgeoning power (.206 ISO at High-A, .165 ISO at Double-A) and won't turn 21 until May 19. The Nationals promoted him to the majors after just 37 games in the Eastern League to utilize his elite defense and baserunning in September, but he will return to the minors after spring training, getting his first taste of Triple-A. Robles is not a finished product, and Washington can afford to let him refine his skills on the farm indefinitely. Look for him to either force the issue for a permanent promotion in June or July, or be summoned earlier if the injury bug bites.
While his production didn't quite keep pace with the hype last year, he still put together an impressive campaign for a teenager playing in full-season ball. His athletic gifts remain exceptional, offering the potential for Gold Glove defense in center field along with a 70-grade hit tool and plus speed. However, it's the development of the rest of his skill set that makes him truly special. His 7.1 percent walk rate in 41 games at High-A Potomac exactly matched the major league rate of one of his most common comps, Royals outfielder Lorenzo Cain, and allows him to profile as a player whose OBP won't be entirely dependent on his batting average. His power stroke also showed some incremental growth, keeping alive the possibility that he will become a true five-tool stud once he matures. The Nationals have no reason to rush Robles after picking up Adam Eaton this offseason, but questions persist about Eaton's defensive chops in center field, while it is well-known that he is exceptional in right. Look for Robles to push Eaton to an outfield corner at some point in 2018.
In dynasty leagues that do not allow in-season pickups, Robles will be one of the top players available. At the All-Star break, the athletic center fielder seemed poised to be a trendy sleeper prospect this offseason. The word “trendy” may still apply, but he has shed the “sleeper” tag completely, as he should now be seen as a top-50 prospect in real life and dynasty leagues. Robles slashed .343/.424/.479 with two home runs and 12 steals in 38 games with short season Auburn at age 18, and he had a 1.045 OPS in 23 games in rookie ball to start the year before his promotion mercifully saved GCL pitchers from the task of facing him. A 70-grade hit tool and 70-grade speed are possible while offering plus defense in center field in his prime, essentially mirroring Lorenzo Cain's 2015 campaign on an annual basis. Robles will get his first taste of a full season league to start the year, and he should finish the year as a top-10 prospect.
More Fantasy News
Benefiting from Cruz's absence
OFWashington Nationals
September 21, 2022
Robles will start in center field and bat seventh in Wednesday's game against Atlanta.
ANALYSIS
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Homers in win
OFWashington Nationals
September 18, 2022
Robles went 1-for-3 with a solo home run in Saturday's win over Miami.
ANALYSIS
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Returns to lineup
OFWashington Nationals
September 16, 2022
Robles (neck) is starting Friday against the Marlins.
ANALYSIS
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Recovery continues
OFWashington Nationals
Neck
September 13, 2022
Robles (neck) is not in the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Orioles.
ANALYSIS
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Remains on bench Saturday
OFWashington Nationals
Neck
September 10, 2022
Robles (neck) isn't starting Saturday against Philadelphia.
ANALYSIS
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