This year’s nickname du jour is “The Big Shamrock,” but we see O’Neal’s luck running out in Boston. He will turn 39 this year and is coming off easily the worst season of his career. Furthermore, he’s faced with stiff competition for playing time in Jermaine O’Neal, and even more competition when Kendrick Perkins comes back. Let someone else risk a pick on Shaq.
After a steady decline for three straight seasons, O’Neal experienced a revival in the desert last year. The Big Cactus averaged 17.8 points, 8.4 boards and 1.4 blocks while leading the league in field-goal percentage at a 60.9-percent clip. Most amazing of all, O’Neal managed to play in 75 games, his most since the 1999-00 season. O’Neal credited the Suns’ training staff for keeping him healthy all season, but unfortunately he’ll have do without them after being traded to the Cavs. He will immediately step in as starting center for the Cavs. He should see similar benefits from playing with LeBron James as he did the last year and a half with Steve Nash, as both players are excellent at creating opportunities for their teammates. Staying in the lineup shouldn’t be too much of a problem either, as the Cavs have a deep frontcourt and will be able to rest O’Neal periodically. The Cavs are out for a championship, so don’t be surprised if Shaq’s regular season stats see a slight dip as the Cavs try to keep the big man fresh for the postseason.
Age and injuries have taken their toll on the big man, and he recorded just 12.9 ppg, 10.6 rpg and 1.2 bpg in 28 games with the Suns. Better health might allow him to improve his block totals, but Amare Stoudemire is the first option in the Phoenix frontcourt, and O'Neal won't get enough looks to significantly bump up his scoring. On the other hand, even if the offense slows down under new coach Porter it shouldn't adversely affect O'Neal's numbers too much either, as the bulk of his scoring these days comes from putbacks and what free throws he can manage to hit. O'Neal is simply no longer a dominant force at either end of the court, and while he's still useful if you can withstand the hit to your free-throw percentage, he's not a fantasy difference-maker.
When healthy and rested, Shaq is still one of the best in the game. Unfortunately, even when not missing games he tends to wear down on the floor as his minutes pile up. Shaq still averages nearly 60 percent on field goals, but fewer minutes mean fewer opportunities. It's still safe to expect just shy of 20 points and 1.5-2.0 blocks per game when he's playing. As usual, beware of drafting him in leagues that count free-throw shooting - he'll single-handedly destroy that category for you. And be prepared for the occasional injury that knocks him out of action for a few contests. But if your league doesn't count free-throw percentage, then O'Neal can still get the job done.
O’Neal may no longer be a top fantasy pick, but he’s still a top center. One major concern with O’Neal, 34, is his ability to play a full season. He missed 23 games last season and has averaged 15 missed games over the last five years. Clearly, conditioning is becoming an issue as he ages, but he still has the strength and explosiveness on the offensive end. If you select O’Neal, prepare for the possibility of missed time and know that you’re guaranteeing yourself a last place finish in free-throw percentage, so long as he stays reasonably healthy. There was a time when Shaq’s other fantasy production made tanking a category a viable strategy, but at this point he’s not giving you enough elsewhere to overcome the damage to your free-throw percentage.
They’re building an All-Star team in South Florida, and O’Neal is their leader. While it remains to be seen how the ball is distributed among Dwyane Wade, Antoine Walker, James Posey and Jason Williams Shaq will get his touches. Even if those disparate personalities don’t exactly mesh, Shaq will get his touches. If those preseason forecasts anointing the Heat as champs don’t materialize, Shaq will get his touches. Durability and his category-crushing free-throw percentage are the main concerns here, but a healthy Shaq’s will carry you in field goal percentage and help out a ton in points, boards and blocks as well.
O’Neal gives you everything you want from a fantasy center: scoring (21.5 ppg), rebounding (11.5 rpg), shot-blocking (2.5 bpg) and a good field goal percentage (58.4 percent, tops among centers). Those are the basics at the position, and O’Neal is a lock to be among the league’s elite in each category. He’s no gamble whatsoever, but be sure to surround him with players who can hit their free throws. Getting out of L.A. is a huge relief for the Big Aristotle, so the desire to prove himself away from Kobe will be great. The new start may also work against him. A new set of teammates will require some adjustment – from him and them. While we like Dwyane Wade’s game, he’s no Kobe in terms of drawing defensive pressure away from Shaq. Egos will be subjugated to feed Shaq, who should dominate Eastern Conference centers every night.
O'Neal will once again be the man in the middle for the Lakers this season. Shaq averaged 27.5 points, 11.1 rebounds, and 2.4 blocks last season (.574 FG, .622 FT). This is right on par with all of his other seasons, except for the fact that his free throw percentage increased seven percent. He is worth of a top-ten pick because you'll see similar numbers this year as well.
