Lewis will return to the Heat for the 2013-14 season, though his playing time is again expected to be limited. He only played in 55 games last season, but did manage to average 13.0 points per 36 minutes. Unless there are some major changes on the roster, Lewis will not see many opportunities for playing time with the Heat this season.
Lewis has been a shell of himself for the last two seasons, as ongoing knee problems have robbed his trademark jumper of its accuracy. If he can get back to around 40 percent from beyond the arc, he could thrive in this offense. For what it's worth, Miami was confident enough in Lewis' health to give him a two-year deal.
Once a top-notch fantasy option due to his three-point prowess, Lewis' value has dropped significantly the past couple seasons. After two successful seasons in Orlando where Lewis ranked among the league leaders in three-pointers made, he regressed to the point that the Magic shipped him to Washington for the albatross known as Gilbert Arenas' contract. Things didn't get better in Washington, as Lewis averaged just 11.4 points, 5.8 rebounds and 1.3 treys in 32 contests. He was constantly bothered by a right knee issue, which limited him to 57 appearances over the course of the season. While his dip in production can be partially attributed to his health problems, Lewis has been trending in the wrong direction for the past few seasons. Washington's roster configuration doesn't figure to help the situation either, as the team is loaded with wing players (Josh Howard, Yi Jianlian and rookie Jan Vesely). At 32, Lewis is entering the twilight of his career, and while he might still be a solid three-point play in fantasy, don't expect much help in other categories.
The four-year trend in Lewis' numbers isn't pretty. Last season his scoring average dropped for the fourth straight year; he averaged 14.1 points, down from a high of 22.4 in 2006-07. His rebounding average dropped to 4.4 – his lowest since the 1999-2000 season, and his three-pointers made and attempted set new lows since his arrival in Orlando. A 10-game PED suspension to start the season was part of the problem last year, but another is Orlando's depth – the Magic have a lot of young wings who can shoot, which may be cutting into Lewis' attempts and production. Lewis may bounce back to some extent, but the depth problem isn't going away.
Lewis’ scoring, field-goal percentage and free-throw percentage all dropped for the second consecutive season last year, but he finished with a career-best 2.8 threes per contest, and the rest of his game remained intact. Because of all those three-pointers, strong free-throw shooting and a limited amount of turnovers, Lewis is probably more valuable as a fantasy asset than in real life. He’s a perfect fit in Orlando’s system; his game is somewhat limited as a jump shooter, which is fine when Dwight Howard is commanding so much attention in the paint. A healthy return of Jameer Nelson should also help the offense in general. However, the impact of Hedo Turkoglu’s loss combined with the addition of Vince Carter remains to be seen. It may be insignificant, but it’s worth noting Turkoglu attempted 13.3 field goals per game last season, whereas Carter had 16.8 last year. It’s reasonable to question whether Lewis’ scoring will drop as a result. Because he doesn’t contribute all that much in steals and blocks and isn’t much of a rebounder for a power forward, Lewis could be overvalued in 2009-10. Lewis also received a 10-game suspension to open the year for testing positive for steroids, so be sure to plan for his absence if you draft him.
The Magic’s acquisition of Lewis was almost universally panned last summer, but worked out much better than expected. Many observers – ourselves included – thought Lewis and fellow 6-10 combo forward Hedo Turkoglu would spend the year stepping on each others toes. Instead, Turkoglu emerged as a star “point forward” who did a tremendous job initiating the offense, while Lewis was free to float out on the perimeter and can jumpers. He won’t rack up many rebounds – but with Dwight Howard patrolling the paint for the Magic, no one short of Dennis Rodman in his prime would generate too many boards. On a team more balanced than his Seattle clubs, Lewis’ shot attempts and scoring were down a bit last year – 18.2 points per game was his lowest average since 2002-03. On the plus side, his assist total of 2.4 per game matched his career-best, but the drop in scoring probably means Lewis is just outside the top tier of power forwards.
Lewis’ enormous contract has generated a lot of bad press for Orlando management – most of it deserved. But don’t let that sway you from selecting Lewis, as “cap-choking contracts” aren’t usually considered in fantasy scoring. Scoring, on the other hand, is, and we expect Lewis to score regularly this year. Orlando is Dwight Howard’s team, clearly, but Howard’s strengths – interior defense, rebounding, dominating the paint – dovetail nicely with what Lewis likes to do best: stand out on the wing and sink baseline jumpers. If Howard and Lewis can establish any sort of on-court rapport, and if Howard proves to be a serviceable passer out of the post, Lewis should easily establish new career-highs in most offensive categories this year.
Lewis has been the model of consistency when it comes to scoring, rebounding, threes, steals and games played. He doesn�t miss many games (averaged 76 games per year over his last three seasons) and put up solid per-game numbers last year in points (20.1), rebounds (5.0), threes (1.8) and steals (1.3). At 6-10, his ability to hit the three makes him difficult to guard, and he gets open looks due to double teams on All-Star guard Ray Allen. The Sonics attempted the second most three-pointers in the league last year so look for Lewis, who averaged 4.7 3-point attempts per game last year, to continue to bomb away from deep in 2007.
Lewis had his best year as a pro last season, averaging a career-high 20.5 points per game as he was named to the All-Star team. Lewis missed 14 games to injuries (including playoffs), but is healthy entering 2005. And he needs to stay healthy for the Sonics to be successful. Seattle was 53-26 (.671) with Lewis in the lineup last season and 5-9 (.357) without him. This season, the Sonics plan to run a fastbreak offense, which should create more scoring opportunities for Lewis. He's a sharpshooter from long distance, hitting 40.1 percent of his 3-pointers last year, and he'll grab some rebounds (5.5 RPG), too. Lewis isn't a sleeper, but he frequently falls below his true value in drafts.
Lewis only keeps getting better, as he produced another solid fantasy season last year. For a player his size, Lewis is a great three-point shooter. Plus, he scores a bunch of points and pulls down his share of rebounds. Playing in a fast-paced Sonics offense doesn’t hurt, either. With virtually no prospect of losing playing time and still some untapped upside, Lewis should be a good value in the third or fourth round. He’ll also have eligibility at the four spot in some leagues, further adding to his value.
Lewis averaged 18.1 ppg and 6.5 rpg last season in nearly 40 mpg. He has improved his scoring average each of his three seasons and should do the same in his fourth season. He'll be the second scoring option after Ray Allen. The Sonics expect big things from Lewis. Keep an eye on him on draft day. He's not a sleeper, but others might overlook him.
