Kenyon Martin

When Kenyon was healthy last season he changed games. Yet knee problems crept up again and limited him to 58 regular season games and a woeful playoff showing. Martin did post 9.4 rpg in 2009-10 compared to 6.0 in 2008-09. He also continued to be good for at least a steal and block every night with double-figure scoring and a couple of assists in an average of 34 minutes. However, with Al Harrington’s arrival we see serious reductions in Martin’s numbers unless Anthony gets shipped out of town. Of course you also have to consider Kenyon’s 55.7 percent free throw shooting, his below average field goal percentage, and his bad knees before picking him in any draft.

Martin wasn’t bad last year, and his contributions in steals (1.5 spg) and blocks (1.1 bpg) remain strong. Of course, the injury-prone forward missed another 16 games, and the last time he didn’t sit out at least 10 games in a season was way back in 2002-03. He’s never not missed at least five in a given season. All those injuries have appeared to catch up to Martin, who has lost most of his explosiveness, as evidenced by the suppressed rebounding numbers (6.0 rpg last year). Martin’s style of play is a good fit for Denver’s up-and-down scheme, but he’s on the wrong side of 30, so a further breakdown is probably in store, especially when you examine his season splits from last year. Martin averaged 12.9 points, 6.4 rebounds and 1.7 steals before the All-Star break. Afterward, those numbers fell to 8.5, 5.0 and 1.0, respectively. Few power forwards have Martin’s ability to record steals, but he’s a poor shooter from the charity stripe and is about as likely to suffer an injury as any player in the league.

K-Mart easily surpassed expectations with his play last season – but that wasn’t hard to do – very little was expected. After more surgeries than Joan Rivers, Martin had his best season in years, scoring 12.4 points, grabbing 6.5 boards and posting a career-best 53.8 shooting percentage in 71 games – his most since the 2002-03 season. It seems Denver management is convinced he can replicate that performance – they dealt Marcus Camby to the Clippers with no players coming back and let Eduardo Najera bolt to the Nets, which means Martin and Nene are the only big men of note on the current roster. If he can stay healthy, Martin has a chance to put up respectable numbers in Denver’s high-octane offense… but you might want to let someone else gamble on that.

Martin’s microfracture surgery during the latter half of the 2005-06 season didn’t quite take and the result was more surgery prior to the 2006-07 season and a full 82 games on the shelf. He enters 2007-08 still not 100% and with the task of showing Nuggets fans that the $15M salary they paid him last year and will pay him once again is worth something. Martin is no longer the starting PF in Denver and unless he has improved his game significantly that won’t change. That being said, he will be the first player off the bench and an intricate piece of the rotation. The Nuggets will do everything it takes to keep Martin in good health so don’t expect more than 20-25 minutes a night, especially during the first two months of the season. Granted, injuries to Camby or Nenê could change that but we think you should expect Martin to see action in 65-75 games with contributions of 7-9 ppg, 5-7 rpg, 1-2 apg, 1-2 bpg, and 1-2 spg while shooting ~50% from the field and ~70% from the line making him a fringe fantasy prospect at best.

Martin has traditionally generated more name-recognition buzz than his numbers merit, and going into this season his outlook is murky. Martin has always used his explosive quickness and leaping ability to overcome his relatively small stature as a thin 6-9 power forward, but microfracture knee surgery a year ago robbed him of some athleticism and limited his output. Martin shot career-highs from the field (50%) and the line (71%), but he wasn’t able to play many minutes (career-low 27.6 mpg), and he couldn’t make the defensive contributions that once rounded out his numbers (career-low .8 spg and .9 bpg). Add that to a public feud with head coach George Karl, a new huge contract extension for his competition for playing time, Nene, and an offseason trade that brought power forward Joe Smith to the Nuggets, and Martin might find his minutes limited, even if his knee is fully recovered this season.

Martin is getting paid max money ($80 million over seven years) which means the expectations are extremely high and he hasn't lived up to them. The former #1 pick runs the floor well, plays good defense, and finishes strong but he still disappears for long stretches on the offensive end and has failed to develop a feared post game. Martin remains the team's #2 offensive option heading into 2005-06 but his offensive numbers are likely to drop somewhat because Carmelo Anthony is one year older and better and Voshon Lenard is back in the mix. Likewise, with Marcus Camby and Nene around Kenyon's rebounding will continue to suffer. However, his minutes and defensive numbers should remain the same. Overall we see him playing 30-35 minutes a night with 14-16 points, 6-8 boards, 2-3 assists, and a block and steal. That's not fantasy starting material but, much like Camby, Martin would make an excellent back-up at either forward position in any league.

Martin will form a highly imposing front line in Denver, with Nene, Marcus Camby and Carmelo Anthony. While the competition will certainly be tougher at PF in the West, and Jason Kidd isn't around to feed him easy baskets, we still see Martin putting up some solid numbers. He'll be expected to take over as the 2nd option on offense behind Anthony, and should thrive in coach Jeff Bzdelik's defense first system. We see slightly less scoring and rebounding (think 15 ppg and 8 rpg) but his steal and block totals could rise with Camby sitting alongside him.

Expect Martin to put his contract negotiations and trade rumors aside and improve on last year's already impressive campaign. Martin should average nearly 20 points and nine rebounds, putting him in the upper echelon on fantasy power forwards despite his low free throw percentage. Draft with confidence.