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Average Fantasy Points
Average Fantasy Points are determined when Dirk Nowitzki was active vs. non-active during the season. Click here to view average fantasy points for a different time period.
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
After countless years of playing better than expected for his age, Nowitzki finally showed some signs of slowing down during the 2016-17 season. He played in just 54 games, largely due to a right Achilles injury that slowed him down during the early portions of the season. He also saw a few days off for rest here and there and had his minutes scaled back to 26.4 per game, as the organization did everything they could to keep their future Hall of Famer as fresh as possible. The nearly five-minute drop-off from a year prior and the addition of Harrison Barnes resulted in Nowitzki's points per game dropping from 18.3 per game in 2016-17 to just 14.2. He complemented that with 6.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 1.5 three-pointers, which were relatively similar to what he's had in recent years. While the NBA made it a priority this offseason to put in a new schedule that would limit back-to-back games and long weeks, that likely doesn't apply much to Nowitzki, who's now 39 years old and is going to get the occasional night off for rest no matter what. The seven-foot big man will also likely see his minutes continue to fall and with even more young talent added to the roster, including first-round pick Dennis Smith, Nowitzki likely won't have to be relied upon as much on offense. That means his numbers should go down yet again overall despite signing a two-year, $10 million extension in the offseason. That expected drop, as well as the injury risk of near 40-year-old player, will have to be considered for those who have the opportunity to draft Nowitzki.
At age 38, Nowitzki has seemingly entered the Tim Duncan Zone of sustained production and reliability. The future Hall of Famer showed few signs of regression last season, averaging 18.3 points, 6.5 rebounds and 1.8 assists in 31.5 minutes per game. The numbers are a far cry from those of Nowitzki's peak years, but his per-36 minute averages -- 20.9 points, 7.4 rebounds, 2.0 assists -- were only a shade below his career marks. The Mavericks have gradually reduced Nowitzki's workload over the past few seasons, and that trend figures to continue in 2016-17, despite a relative lack of depth at the position. Dallas brought back Dwight Powell to serve as Nowitzki's primary backup, while Quincy Acy and Harrison Barnes will also factor into the power forward rotation. The addition of Barnes, who will see most of his time at the other forward spot, should take some of the offensive burden off of Nowitzki's shoulders, though the 24-year-old is unproven as more than a role player on an elite team. From a health perspective, Nowitzki has missed only 14 games over the past three seasons, but at some point, his age has to catch up to him. While his recent production makes it difficult to justify discounting the former MVP too drastically, the nearly 48,000 minutes on his NBA odometer have to be taken into consideration.
The 2014-15 NBA season was somewhat of a down year for the former MVP, though he was still named to his 13th All-Star team. Nowitzki appeared in 77 contests, averaging just 30 minutes per game, his lowest total since his rookie season. He finished the year averaging 17.3 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 1.9 assists. Like his minutes played, these totals in each of those categories were the lowest they've been since Nowitzki's first year in the league. Even his shooting dipped a bit as he shot 46 percent from the field and 38 percent from behind the arc. Part of the drop in productivity was by design as Dallas limited his playing time to keep the 37-year-old fresh throughout the year. Another first-round playoff exit provided Nowitzki another long summer to prepare for the upcoming season, and he felt good enough to join the German National Team in EuroBasket 2015. Nowitzki remains the focal point of the Mavericks offense and could see his statistics return to form with Monta Ellis, the 2014-15 team leader in points, now playing in Indiana. A member of the elusive 50-40-90 club, Nowitzki will look to once again lead Dallas to the postseason in the competitive Western Conference.
Dirk Nowitzki returns for his 17th season in Dallas. During the 2013-14 season, Nowitzki rebounded from a somewhat down year to finish with 21.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 0.9 steals, and 0.6 blocks in 33 minutes per game through 80 games played. He flirted with the second 50-40-90 season of his illustrious career, falling just short. His shooting numbers remained impressive, as he finished the year shooting 49 percent from the field on 7.9 attempts per game, 40 percent from three-point range, and 90 percent from the free-throw line on 4.2 attempts per game. He was a free agent in the offseason but made it clear he wasn't leaving the only franchise he has ever known. The former MVP instead opted to leave a considerable amount of money on the table to allow Dallas to make several offseason acquisitions, including signing Chandler Parsons. Parsons should help spread the floor for Nowitzki on offense, and the return of Tyson Chandler helps hide Nowitzki's weaknesses on the defensive end. He may not be the player he was during his prime, but Nowitzki remains one of the most efficient offensive weapons and fantasy friendly players in the league.
Nowitzki is coming off an injury-riddled season where he missed 29 games after missing only 15 games over his previous four seasons. The veteran averaged 17.3 points (47 percent from the field), 6.8 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.2 three-pointers made, in arguably his worst season since his rookie year. It was evident that Nowitzki's injured knee took a toll on his performance, resulting in a disappointing fantasy season for those who drafted him early. Now with several months of rest and training during the offseason, Nowitzki could be in for a bounce-back season. The veteran will enter the 2013-14 season at 35 years of age with much to prove after missing the playoffs last season. With newly acquired teammate Monta Ellis at the wing, defensive pressure on Nowtizki may be relieved to a good extent, allowing him to have better opportunities on the offensive end. If his knees can hold up for the entirety of the season, Nowitzki could surprise fantasy owners once again – this time, for the better.
Nowitzki and the Mavericks had a slow start to the 2011-12 season, due in part to conditioning and some early-season knee problems. He struggled to find his shooting stroke, particularly from 3-point range, before kicking it into gear for the final three months. He finished the season averaging 21.6 points and 6.8 rebounds--below his career averages. His shooting percentages were also bit off, but not deadly to fantasy teams. In a sign that age, or the knee, was bothering him, Nowitzki attempted more three-pointers in 2011-12 than in any of the three previous seasons, while getting to the free-throw line less often. He�s now entering his age-34 season, and we�ve noticed some slippage. If you�re into the PER rating, Nowitzki dropped from ninth overall in 2010-11 to 20th overall after last season. The Mavericks are re-shuffling the deck, leaving Nowitzki to figure out how to mesh within a significant roster turnover for the first time in years. While still an elite producer at power forward, the need for him to remain at that high level may be greater with a new cast in place. How will O.J. Mayo, Darren Collison, and Elton Brand fit with Nowitzki? In his last two seasons, Nowitzki was able to reduce his minutes per game with minor drops in scoring and rebounding. With the new crew, will he be asked to play 36 minutes a night? Can he handle such a workload at age 34? However it plays itself out, Nowitzki is still an elite threat and marksman from any spot on the court. Offensively, there�s no weakness in his game. He remains Dallas� unquestioned leader on offense.
At 31, Nowitzki doesn’t appear anywhere close to slowing down. The 7-0, 245-pound German put together another stellar season in 2010-11, finishing with averages of 23.0 points and 7.0 rebounds while shooting a career-best 51.7 percent from the floor and 89.2 percent from the free throw line. His play reached another level come the postseason, as Nowitzki averaged 27.7 points, 8.1 rebounds and 1.1 treys while leading the Mavericks to their first ever NBA championship. Despite the obvious real-life success Nowitzki displayed last year, his fantasy game has shown some slippage. He hit less than one three pointer per game for the third consecutive season and appears more and more content shooting his trademark step-back jump shot rather than launching from downtown. Nowitzki also saw his defensive stats drop, as his 0.5 steals and 0.6 blocks set or matched career-lows in each category. His rebounding also dropped to the lowest rate since his sophomore season in 1999-00. While continual drops in these categories may push Nowitzki out of the first round of fantasy drafts, he still remains elite enough in scoring, field-goal percentage and free-throw percentage.
In theory, Nowitzki should be slowing down at this point, but we've seen little evidence to support that notion. In the 2009-10 season – Nowitzki's 11th as a professional – he averaged 25 points per game (good for seventh in the league) while shooting an excellent .481 from the floor and a remarkable .915 from the free-throw line. Only Steve Nash was better from the line last season, and Nash took 2.8 freebies per game to Nowitzki's 7.2 attempts. And he's surprisingly durable – Nowitzki played in 81 games last year, and has appeared in at least 76 in every season since 1999-2000. The depth of the Mavericks' roster didn't affect Nowitzki's playing time any; even with Shawn Marion added to the mix, Nowitzki averaged nearly 38 minutes per game – a figure right in line with his 2008-09 number. While his long-range jumper is still an important weapon – he shot .421 from long range last season – he doesn't launch as many threes as in years past. His 51 made threes in 2009-10 were his lowest total since his rookie season, when he played in just 47 games. If there's one area of concern, it's on the glass. Nowitzki averaged a mere 7.7 rebounds per game last season, his lowest average since 1999-2000. But the Mavs aren't too worried about that drop-off – they inked Nowitzki to a fat four-year, $80 million extension this summer.
Nowitzki has been remarkably consistent over the past nine seasons, with last year being no exception. His 8.4 rebounds per game were actually his lowest mark over that span, but he made up for it with an uptick in scoring and fantastic 89.0-percent shooting from the free throw line, (seventh-best in the NBA). To put that in better perspective, all six who ranked ahead of him were guards, so his performance from the charity stripe was especially good for someone occupying a power forward slot. Nowitzki has also been incredibly durable, having never missed more than six games in a season over the past 10 years. He doesn’t rely on the three-point shot quite as much as he used to, but Nowitzki has improved his post game, and he doesn’t commit many turnovers either. At age 31 and with 839 career games under his belt, Nowitzki has already peaked, but a sudden decline is unlikely. It remains to be seen how the addition of Shawn Marion will affect him, but with Jason Kidd still around to make sure he gets plenty of open looks, Nowitzki should once again turn in a solid 2009-10 campaign.
Nowitzki’s 2006-07 numbers are remarkably similar to those from 2007-08, save for one key category: MVP votes. In 2007 he won the thing. In ’08, he finished eleventh in the balloting. The bad taste left in everyone’s mouth by Dallas’ disappointing play after the Jason Kidd trade and their first-round exit from the playoffs carried over to the balloting, apparently – but not to fantasy owners, who were pleased with another season of mid-twenties scoring, over eight boards, over three assists, and reliably-good percentages from the floor, the line and three. We’re looking for Nowitzki to improve in the coming season – a full training camp spent developing a rapport with J-Kidd should lead to better shots – and, by extension, better percentages and scoring totals, and that sour taste from the 2008 playoffs is something he’ll be eager to wash away with a hot start.
Nowitzki is in a rare situation: coming off of a league MVP season, he still has a lot to prove. After leading the Mavericks to the best record in the NBA, Nowitzki had to endure bitter defeat in the first round of the playoffs. One might expect this to help motivate Nowitzki for the upcoming season, but it could actually have the opposite effect on his production. Last season taught him that the regular season is no longer relevant to his championship goals; he could potentially decide to coast a bit this season to ensure that he is strong and fresh for the playoffs – a tactic employed in the past by the likes of Shaquille O’Neal and Tim Duncan. Nowitzki’s three point attempts dropped alarmingly last season, to less than one per game despite a career-best 41.6 percent shooting from downtown. Nevertheless, Nowitzki remains one of the better sources of points and rebounds in the NBA, and is coming off career-high marks in both shooting (50.2% FG, 90.4% FT) and assists (3.4). Whether his early exit from the 2006-07 season spurs him onto new heights or causes his to throttle back slightly this year, he should still be one of the first players off the board on draft night.
Nowitzki has been fantasy royalty for years, but last season he took his game to the next level by averaging career-highs in points (26.6 ppg), field goal percentage (48%), free throw percentage (90%), and three-point percentage (41%). Nowitzki is one of the most difficult defensive matchups in the league, because at seven-feet tall he can shoot over all small forwards, but his quickness and ball-handling make it impossible for most men his size to guard him on the perimeter. Nowitzki is a good rebounder (9.0 rpg) and also contributes in 3-pointers (1.4 threes per game), assists (2.8 apg), blocks (1.0 bpg), and even steals (.7 spg). Nowitzki also made serious strides in confidence last season, making a serious push for the MVP award and leading the Mavericks to the NBA finals. Look for Nowitzki to make another strong argument for the fantasy MVP award this season.
The seven-footer with the great handle and smooth jumper had perhaps his best regular season in 2004-2005, despite some high-profile playoff games in which he shot poorly. Nowitzki shot 40% from three-point range last year, the best mark of his career, and shot 46% overall on the way to averaging 26.1 points per game, fourth in the NBA. He's not afraid to mix it up inside, though, picking up almost 10 rebounds and a block and a half per game. The German goes to the line a lot, ranking fifth in the league in free throw attempts, and he knows what to do once he gets there, making 87%. He doesn't have the assist numbers of Kevin Garnett, averaging just over three per game, and he had a few physical problems last season, missing some time with ankle and knee issues. That said, Nowitzki should definitely go in the top four or five picks in your draft, particularly if he has center eligibility in your league.
Dirk the Daring's overall production fell off a bit last season - probably due to the sheer volume of Dallas Mavericks demanding a role in the offense. Problem solved - Antoine Walker, Antawn Jamison and Steve Nash have left the Metroplex, and this is very much Dirk's team. We're not sure this will translate into more wins... but we'd be very surprised if Nowitzki's fantasy value doesn't rebound to 2002 levels, with 25-plus ppg scoring, near double-figures in boards, decent assists, steals, blocks, threes and solid percentages.
Make no doubt about it, Nowitzki is one of the better all-around fantasy producers in the NBA. Nowitzki's scoring totals have increased in each of his first five seasons in the league, culminating with a career-high of 25.1 points a game last year. Expect more of the same from Nowitzki. He's a star playing on a very deep and talented team.
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