Paul Pierce

Following a one-year stint in Brooklyn, Paul Pierce will move on to Washington for his 17th NBA season. He'll be replacing Trevor Ariza as the Wizards' starting small forward, after averaging 13.5 points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.4 blocks, and 1.5 three-pointers over 28 minutes with the Nets last season. Those 28 minutes easily marked the lowest average of Pierce's career, and while his age was likely a factor, the Nets also opted for a deep rotation. Playing for the Celtics in 2012-13, Pierce averaged 18.6 points, 6.3 boards, and 4.8 assists over 33 minutes per game. In addition to the significant minutes decrease in Brooklyn, Pierce had a significant drop off in his per-36 scoring and assists. However, his skills have aged rather gracefully, providing hope that he'll not only bounce back over 30 minutes per game this season but also show noticeable improvement in both points and assists. Of course, with the Wizards' offense is expected to revolve around young guards John Wall and Bradley Beal, so Pierce won't necessarily improve his production by much, even if he gets back into 30-plus minutes per game territory. Though he's known as one of the more consistent players in the game, Pierce has a fairly wide range of possible fantasy outcomes as he suits up for his third different team in the last three seasons.

Pierce saw a career worst 33 minutes per game last season, and that number will almost certainly continue to decline this season, with Joe Johnson and Andrei Kirilenko also on the wing. In Boston, Pierce was often the only player capable of getting his own shot, so defenses would key in on him, but in Brooklyn, he's surrounded by good offensive players at every position. This will hurt his counting stats, but he should get more open looks, so his field-goal percentage could see a jump. He shot 44 percent from the field on 14.2 attempts per game last season, but 2009-10 (47 percent on 12.2 attempts) and 2010-11 (50 percent on 12.8 attempts) look like better barometers of what his field-goal percentage could look like in 2013-14. Pierce's rebounding and assist numbers were both the highest they've been since the mid-2000s because he was asked to do so much with Rajon Rondo hurt and Kevin Garnett playing fewer minutes. It's doubtful he approaches the 6.3 rebounds and 4.8 assists he averaged in 2012-13, once again because of the players around him.

Pierce is one of the steadiest players in the league, as evidenced by him averaging between 18-to-21 points per game each of the past five seasons. He hasn’t averaged more than six boards since 2005-06, but last year his 4.5 dimes per game were his best average in the last seven seasons. Ray Allen’s departure from Boston could provide Pierce with a few more looks from the field, meaning that he could be a good value on draft day. His long-range shooting has been unpredictable throughout his career. Last year he hit 36.6 percent of his threes, but if he can approach the 41 percent mark that he reached three years ago, his value would increase significantly. The 35-year old small forward doesn’t have the upside that some younger players might offer, but if you can get Pierce in the fourth round or later, he’s definitely worth picking up for his steady play.

Pierce will be 34 entering this season, but it’s hard to argue against drafting a guy who played in 80 or more games in three of the last four years and averaged 18.9 points, 5.4 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.4 three-pointers, 1.0 steal, 0.6 blocks, and 2.1 turnovers in 35 minutes in 2010-11. If the Celtics re-sign Jeff Green, we could theoretically see Pierce’s playing time reduced this season, but that’s not what happened last year after the Celtics acquired Green – Pierce continued to average his usual minutes right down to the final week of the season. In fact, the only games Pierce missed last season were the final two, and that absence was due to a coach’s decision to rest him before the playoffs. While age catches up to everyone eventually, thus far Pierce has been able to stave off significant signs of decline.

Sometime around Boston's sixth game of the season, Pierce will become the 37th player to cross the 20,000-point threshold for a career, joining teammates Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, and (now) Shaquille O'Neal in the process. Next year, provided that he remains relatively healthy, he'll pass Larry Bird in total points scored (21,791) for a career. He'll pass Robert Parish a season or two after that. These accomplishments all point to one thing: that Pierce is truly a talented scorer. However, the timing of the feats also illustrates something else: that Pierce isn't as productive in the current version of the Celtics. Had Pierce played his last three years without his current cast of talent, he would easily be past 20,000 already. Consider: in the two seasons (one injury-shortened) before the assembly of The Big Three, Pierce averaged 26.1 points per game. In the three years since? He's averaged only 19.5. That's less. But it's also important for fantasy owners not to overreact to the baleful effects of his talented teammates. Pierce's shooting percentages these last three years – field goal, three point, and even free throw – are all higher than his career averages. And between his efficiency from the charity stripe and his ability to get there (6.1 attempts per game in 2009-10), he ranks as a top-10 player in that category.

Pierce is a rugged 6-7 swing man that’s physically stronger than most wings not named LeBron James or Ron Artest. Pierce has the deceptive ability to get into the lane off the dribble at will, to generate points and free-throw attempts in bunches and has a deadly three-point shot. With Kevin Garnett missing a third of the season due to injury last year Pierce was called upon to score more (20.5 ppg) than he had the previous season. Garnett is expected to return healthy this season, though, and with the developing Rajon Rondo demanding more touches, and new additions Rasheed Wallace and Marquis Daniels also requiring shots, Pierce’s scoring could take a hit. Rondo also cuts into Pierce’s assist numbers (seven-year low 3.6 apg). Pierce is still a very solid player, capable of averaging 20/5/5 if called upon and good for a 30-plus point explosion every so often as well. But barring injury, look for The Truth to play fewer minutes this season and turn in one of his worst fantasy seasons this millennium on a team more focused on post-season success than regular season stats.

Who is the best player in the NBA? Pierce was asked that question recently, and after consideration, called his own name. After his performance in the Finals, who’s going to argue? Pierce took home Most Valuable Player honors after posting averages of 21.7 points, 6.4 assists and 4.5 boards in six games -- and keeping league MVP Kobe Bryant well shy of his season averages with spectacular defense. But as we see so often in the NBA, what happens in a short series isn’t necessarily what we’ll see night-in, night-out. In the upcoming regular season, look for Pierce’s numbers to return to the levels he established in Year 1 of Boston’s “big three” alignment – he’ll share the ball with Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett, he’ll play team D and his won-loss record will likely be more impressive than his individual stats. At the same time, he’ll be conserving some of his energy and attempting to stay in peak form for the season that really matters to contenders: the one that starts in April. Pierce’s high-profile and hotly-debated Finals knee injury seems to have been minor – an MRI taken in early July showed no significant damage – and will be a mere afterthought by the time training camp begins.

To date, the most talented running buddy to grace Boston’s lineup in the Paul Pierce era has been… Antoine Walker. Nothing against ‘Toine, but this year’s imports represent a significant upgrade. Ray Allen is the best shooter of his generation, and Kevin Garnett is an all-time great. What does their arrival do to Paul Pierce the fantasy player? As wins go up, points go down, right? Maybe, maybe not. Neither Garnett nor Allen is the type of player to demand x number of shots per game; Garnett, in particular, can be remarkably effective without having his number called in a set offense at all. We might see a slight decrease in Pierce’s scoring, but with such great teammates to draw defenses and hit their own shots, any lost value should be made up by improvements in dimes and percentages.

Pierce set career highs in points (26.8) and FG% (47.1%) last year, and as if that weren’t enough, he also averaged 6.7 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.4 threes. Pierce did have minor arthroscopic surgery on his elbow this summer, but he is expected to be 100% for training camp. The Celtics don’t have a legitimate second scorer (sorry Wally Szczerbiak) or a reliable low-post presence so Pierce will have to do most of the heavy lifting again this year. If last year’s numbers are any indication, Pierce has no problem carrying the team on his shoulders.

Pierce rode career highs in field-goal and free-throw percentage all the way to the most complete fantasy year of his career. Nonetheless, as general manager Danny Ainge pursues the ultimate Wonderlick achievers squad, there's the chance the team may ship Pierce out of town. Sure, getting thrown out of Game 6 in Indiana didn't show basketball IQ, but there's one man responsible for Boston getting that far. While his defensive production has slipped four years running, Pierce remains an elite scorer, from three-point land on in. His field goal percentage often suffers, however, when his team lacks another star scorer, as it will this year. Consider Pierce reliable across the board on offense, and those steals, while declining, remain top-10. Just hope the shooting percentage doesn't badly regress and that he's not traded to a stat-impinging situation with another team.

Pierce is about the closest thing to a one-man team in the NBA save for Allen Iverson. Sure, it hurts the Celtics’ chances of sneaking into the playoffs, but the fantasy owners targeting Pierce in this year’s draft have much to rejoice over. Undoubtedly the number one option for shots, Pierce should threaten to break the 30 ppg mark this season, as newly hired head coach Doc Rivers will look to Pierce as often as possible. Pierce should be an offensive juggernaut, projecting to knock down 2-3 threes per game as well. Although FG% might be a source of concern, Pierce should be among the game’s most well-rounded fantasy contributors, providing hefty boosts to a team’s threes, points, rebounds, assists and steals. Make sure you take this stud in the late first round if he’s still on the board.

Pierce is one of the premier players in the NBA. He'll primarily play shooting guard but played enough at small forward to qualify in most fantasy leagues. Big-time scorer who gets an uncharacteristic amount of steals for a front court player. A very good three point shooter. There are, however, going to be times when Pierce is doubled and unless his teammates step up and make shots, his numbers may suffer. He is, and should remain, as a top 10 player in the NBA and pick in your draft.