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Average Fantasy Points
Average Fantasy Points are determined when Trevor Ariza was active vs. non-active during the season. Click here to view average fantasy points for a different time period.
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
Ariza has spent the last four seasons operating as a 3-and-D wing for the Rockets. During the 2017-18 campaign specifically, the veteran knocked down 2.5 three-pointers per game at a 36.8 percent clip, while chipping in with 1.5 steals defensively. He added 11.7 points, 4.4 rebounds and 1.6 assists as well, thriving in an uptempo offense alongside superstars James Harden and Chris Paul. However, Ariza elected to go for a big payday this offseason, rather than rejoining a championship contender in Houston, so he's set to head to Phoenix on a one-year, $14 million contract. Ariza won't be playing alongside guys with the talent level of Harden or Paul, but Devin Booker is an established up-and-coming star and the Suns also just drafted No. 1 overall pick Deandre Ayton back in June. What Ariza's role will be in Phoenix is somewhat unclear at this point in time, but his main expectation will likely be to provide veteran leadership to a young roster and also a defensive intensity that rubs off on his teammates. Considering the Suns youth and the fact that they aren't competing for a championship, there's a chance the staff opts to turn towards developing those players at points during the season rather than giving Ariza extended workloads, so that could negatively impact the veteran's Fantasy value. Still, his ability to open the floor and make an impact on defense could earn him a starting role at one of the forward spots from the get go. Ariza is unlikely to flirt with top-100 value, so he's likely only someone to consider late in drafts as a steals and three-pointer specialist with strong percentages.
Ariza's 2016-17 season was more of the same for the 32-year-old forward. He started all 80 games he played in, providing a deep-ball threat to space the floor for MVP finalist James Harden in one of the higher paced offenses in the league. He did shoot just 34.4 percent from the three-point line, his lowest mark since 2011-12, which directly correlated with a drop in his scoring to 11.7 points per game. He added 5.7 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.8 steals and 2.4 three-pointers, all of which held fairly stable from a year prior. Looking forward to the 2017-18 campaign, the Rockets traded for Chris Paul, another playmaker who will slot in next to Harden in the backcourt. With yet another elite passer added to the roster, Ariza should have no problem getting open looks on the perimeter, so it wouldn't be surprising if his three-point percentage climbed back up after a relatively down year. The addition of P.J. Tucker could come at the expense of a few of Ariza's minutes, though there still shouldn't be any drastic changes to his overall production. Fantasy owners should continue to expect a three-point specialist with good, but not great production elsewhere across the box score.
In his second season with the Rockets, Ariza bolstered his reputation as an underrated fantasy asset at the forward spot. Ariza started 81 games, averaging 12.7 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 2.0 steals in 35.3 minutes per game. In addition to those useful, but not standout numbers, Ariza derived value from his volume three-point shooting, and the hiring of new coach Mike D’Antoni should help the veteran sustain, if not build upon, last season’s 2.3 made threes per game, the second-highest number of his career. Houston added both Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson in free agency, but neither player should encroach upon Ariza’s grasp on the starting small forward position. If healthy, Ariza will likely approach the 35-minute-per-game plateau for the fourth straight season, which should enable him to sustain the counting stats that have made him an excellent all-around producer. While his assists and steals numbers are unlikely to make much of a leap, it’s reasonable to believe Ariza’s rebounding could improve. His 4.6 rebounds per 36 minutes last season were the fewest of his career by a considerable margin.
In his first season back with the Rockets, Ariza averaged 12.8 points, 2.4 three-pointers, 5.6 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 0.2 blocks in 36 minutes per game while appearing in all 82 contests. He also posted career highs in steals (1.9) and three-pointers (2.4) per game. Coach Kevin McHale uses Ariza in a 3-and-D role, where Ariza uses most of his energy on defense and spreads the floor as a spot-up shooter on offense. While Ariza shot the three at a decent, 35 percent rate, his overall scoring average decreased and, more concerningly, his field goal percentage sunk from 46 percent in 2013-14 to 40 percent last season. That drop-off was unexpected, but it's likely a byproduct of Ariza attempting more three-pointers than ever before. Per Basketball-Reference, two-point shots accounted for only 39 percent of Ariza's attempts last season - by far a career-low - while his 61 percent three-point attempt rate was the highest of his career by nearly 10 percentage points. The Rockets made some changes this offseason, but Ariza still projects to serve as the starting shooting guard, and his role will likely be much the same as it was in 2014-15. He relies heavily on the playmaking ability of James Harden to generate open, perimeter looks, and the Rockets' addition of Ty Lawson provides the team with another player capable of penetrating and creating opportunities for others.
After losing Chandler Parsons to the Dallas Mavericks, and missing out on a bunch of other key free agents, the Rockets found it essential to lock up Trevor Ariza to be their starter at the small forward position. Ariza is coming off a career year with the Wizards where he put up his highest scoring average since the 2009-10 season at 14.4 points per game, and posted a career best in rebounds with 6.2 per game. Ariza also ended the season averaging 2.5 assists, 1.6 steals, and 2.3 three-pointers made, while playing in 35 minutes per game. His shooting will be used to open up the lane for both James Harden and Dwight Howard, and he'll look to try and duplicate his stellar shooting percentages last season of 46 percent from the field and a career best 41 percent from behind the arc. While it may be hard to believe that Ariza will duplicate his scoring averages and percentages, he is joining a team where opponents' defensive focus will be placed squarely on Harden and Howard, which should allow Ariza some space to get off a bunch of shots. Look for him to get plenty of minutes, as he's coming off one of the healthiest years he's had in his 10-year career.
Ariza could become a jack-of-all-trades player for the Wizards this season. He knows he'll have to back up the both forward positions and shooting guard, saying in August, "I'm going to compete...just go out there and play. Not any particular position, just whatever the coaches ask of me, I try to do." While his numbers were down across the board last year, the Wizards need his veteran presence. RotoWire hoops guru Andre' Snellings wisely reminded me that Ariza's "garbage-man type" skills do complement the young backcourt and should hold up despite lesser minutes. Last year's end-of-season knee injury should be fully healed.
After two productive years in New Orleans, Ariza is now the Wizards starting small forward, playing on his sixth team in nine years. The Wizards didn’t get much production from the three last year, and Ariza is certainly an upgrade over Jan Vesely and Chris Singleton. Washington’s new nucleus could be good enough to contend for the 8th seed in the Eastern Conference, and if that’s the case, Ariza should see the 32-plus minutes per game he has seen over the past three seasons. He has averaged 10-plus points, 5-plus boards and 1.5-plus steals per game in each of those seasons. The one drawback here is his poor shooting percentages. Last season was the first time he has shot better than 40 percent from the field since the 2008-09 season, and he has never been a 35 percent three-point shooter. Still, late in the draft, there is enough to like here, and the crop of ownable small forwards gets ugly in a hurry after Ariza.
Ariza is a highly inefficient small forward, but gets big minutes because of his ability to play defense. That he hits three-pointers and collects more than the average number of steals has made Ariza fantasy relevant even while shooting just 40 percent from the field, 30 percent from three-point range and 70 percent from the charity stripe last season. His role on the Hornets this year will be similar to last season’s; Ariza will play tough defense, and he’ll get sporadic touches on offense when Chris Paul deems it least destructive. If you’re looking for help with threes and steals late in drafts and can stomach the poor shooting percentages, Ariza would be a decent player to target.
Since Michael Lewis's article ("The No-Stats All-Star") about Houston's front office and its use of advanced stats was published in the New York Times Magazine in February of 2009, every move made by Rockets GM Daryl Morey carries with it an extra air of authority. And when Houston signed Laker cast-off Trevor Ariza for roughly the same contract that Los Angeles signed former-Rocket Ron Artest, that authority was put to the test. How did it work out for the Rockets? Well, they didn't win a World Championship – though that's not the only way to tell, obviously. Maybe more telling is that Houston sent Ariza away as part of a four-way trade early this August. For fantasy purposes, Ariza is actually deceptively valuable. His field goal percentage (39.4) was terrible last season, and though it crept up towards respectable levels later in the season (44.1% over the season's last two months), Ariza's jump shot isn't exactly his bread and butter – nor does his free throw percentage (just 64.9) suggest it's likely to improve by much. What Ariza does do is hit threes (1.9 per game last season, probably a reason for the low FG%) and, in particular, get steals. His average of 1.8 steals per game last season placed him a full two standard deviations above the mean for rosterable players. Translation from the nerd: he's really good at it.
A 6-8 defensive specialist, Ariza made a name for himself as a key member of the Lakers’ championship squad last season, consistently knocking down big shots and making key defensive plays along the way. He has since left the Lakers to move to a featured role in Houston, making him an intriguing fantasy prospect. Ariza had been an injury-plagued journeyman in the early part of his career, missing an average of 39 games per season in the three years leading up to 2008. He has also never played more than 24 minutes per game, and was a role player/fifth option on last year’s Lakers. On the other hand, Ariza’s per-36 minute averages for the last several years have been rock-solid at around 13 points, seven boards, three assists and two steals on good shooting percentages from the field. And in 31 minutes/game in last season’s playoffs, Ariza validated those estimates by averaging 11.3 points, 4.2 boards, 2.3 assists, 1.6 steals and a noteworthy 1.7 treys per while shooting 50 percent from the field over 23 games. Ariza is long, athletic, and as the new starting small forward on an injury-ravaged Rockets team he has the opportunity to play full-time minutes as featured offensive option for the first time in his career. Injuries are still a concern, as are his struggles from the free throw line (career 66% FT), but Ariza has plenty of upside on his new team.
An aggressive defensive player with a propensity for highlight-reel dunks, but the competition for minutes in the Laker frontcourt makes Ariza a long shot to produce on a regular basis.
Ariza is an intriguing player who could really see a big improvement in his overall numbers this year. He was just beginning to play well in December when he got injured and lost almost a month. He came back and played decently down the stretch, giving the Magic hope that he could become a good player for them this season. He has good size and is a good rebounder for a guard, but he won't make many threes, and his free-throw percentage is horrendous. However, he did shoot over 50 percent from the field last season, a very good clip for a guard. Ariza will likely increase his scoring to somewhere between 10 and 15 points per game and should have his best season yet.
Ariza is a young, athletic talent with a lot of potential, but is unfortunately stuck behind Hill and Turkoglu. He shouldn't see more than 15 minutes a game.
This 6’8” pogo stick was a second-round find out of UCLA for Isiah Thomas; if Ariza had stayed in school for another year or two, he’d likely have been lottery material. Ariza is long, quick and athletic but very, very raw. Look for him to play a key role for New York off the bench this season, but real worthwhile fantasy numbers might be another year away.
Ariza is a 2004 second-round draft pick who came out of UCLA two years early. He faces an uphill battle to make the opening night roster and appears a likely candidate for the three-man injured reserve list.
Ariza left UCLA after his freshman year and will not have much impact for the Knicks this season. He's a likely candidate for the injured reserve this season.
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