Paul Millsap
Paul Millsap
34-Year-Old ForwardF
Denver Nuggets
2018 Fantasy Outlook
Wrist surgery limited Millsap to 38 games during his debut season as a member of the Nuggets. In the 15 games prior to the injury, the four-time All-Star averaged 16.0 points, 6.3 rebounds, 3.2 assists and a combined 2.4 blocks/steals. He also shot 44.7 percent from the field, made 69.2 percent of his free-throws, and converted 1.3 threes per tilt at 33.9 percent. While counting stats regressed for the big man, it was nothing unexpected, as he turned 33 years old and was joining a new team with more high-usage talent than in his final year with Atlanta. It may be hard for Millsap to increase his scoring this season, however, as the team remains stocked with offensive talent. Overall, it seems safest to bank on him having a similar statistical season. Though he’s on the back end of his prime, Millsap is still someone worth exploring in the middle rounds of most Fantasy drafts. Read Past Outlooks
$Signed a two-year, $61 million contract with the Nuggets in July of 2017. Nuggets exercised $30 million team option for 2019-20 in June of 2019.
Staying in Denver
FDenver Nuggets
June 29, 2019
The Nuggets exercised Millsap's $30 million team option for 2019-20 on Saturday, Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN reports.
ANALYSIS
Given the hefty price tag, Millsap's status for the upcoming season was uncertain. Based on the decision, Denver now looks set to prioritize roster continuing heading into the 2019-20 season, which may hinder the team's efforts to pursue any marquee free agents this summer. The veteran power forward has averaged 13.3 points, 6.9 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.9 blocks and 0.9 triples across 28.1 minutes per game through his first two seasons with the Nuggets..
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
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Denver's not known for making splashes in the offseason, but the signing of Millsap was one of the biggest of the summer. In his four seasons with Atlanta, Millsap made the All-Star team every single year, while playing at least 69 games in all four years. Consistency is one thing that's always been there for the four-time All-Star, as he has played at least 64 games in all 11 of his years in the league. It complements his impressive numbers as well, as he averaged 17.4 points, 8.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.2 blocks per game in his four years with the Hawks. That translates to Millsap having one of the better all-around stat lines for bigs in the entire NBA. Millsap enters a Denver frontcourt that already boasts Nikola Jokic, who was one of the surprise breakout performers last year and is already pushing for superstar status himself. With his 4.9 assists per game, Jokic was arguably one of the best passers at his position, which should give Millsap plenty of open looks. Millsap's usage may take a slight hit, but the fact that he's playing alongside such an elite, yet unselfish center, could ultimately help his game grow. Look for Millsap to thrive in one of the best frontcourts in the league and he should be able to approach his 2016-17 averages of 18.1 points, 7.7 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.1 three-pointers over 34.0 minutes.
After delivering two spectacular seasons for the Hawks on a sub-market value contract, Millsap was rewarded with a three-year, $59 million deal last summer. Even that new contract may prove to be a bargain for the Hawks, as the 31-year-old turned in one of the best all-around campaigns of his career in 2015-16, finishing with averages of 18.8 points, 10.0 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 2.0 steals, 1.9 blocks and 1.0 three-pointers per game while shooting 47 percent from the floor. Simply put, few players are capable of supplying this kind of multi-category production from the power forward spot, which gives Millsap an exceptionally high floor in the fantasy realm. During the upcoming season, Millsap's biggest challenge will come in adjusting to playing alongside a more traditional center in Dwight Howard, who isn't versatile enough to stretch the floor on offense like the departed Al Horford was. Millsap could have to sacrifice a few rebounds as a result of Howard's preference to play close to the basket, but that shouldn't prevent the three-time All-Star from maintaining his usual production in other areas. Millsap won't benefit from gaining much familiarity with Howard in training camp, however, as he looks bound to miss most of the Hawks' exhibition schedule after undergoing a non-surgical procedure on his right knee in September. Fortunately, the expectation is that he'll be fully healthy for the start of the regular season. While his lack of recognition as a superstar-level player could cause some fantasy owners to overlook him on draft day, Millsap certainly still looks like a safe early-round investment in drafts due to his annual ability to put up impressive numbers across the board.
In his ninth season, Millsap mustered up averages of 16.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.8 steals, and 0.9 blocks in 33 minutes per game through 73 regular season games. Millsap scored his 16.7 points on only 12.7 shots per game, cashing in on 48 percent from the field, 36 percent from beyond the arc, and 76 percent from the free-throw line. In seven years with the Jazz, Millsap made just 31 three-pointers, but since joining the Hawks, he has made 153 three-pointers in 147 regular season games. During 16 playoff games in 2014-15, Millsap contributed 15.2 points on 13.1 attempts, 8.7 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.6 steals, and 0.9 blocks in 35 minutes per game while shooting 41 percent from the field, 31 percent from three-point territory, and 74 percent from the free-throw line. The 6-8, 253-pound forward turns 31 in February and signed a three-year, $58 million contract this offseason.
The Hawks signed Millsap to a two-year, $19 million contract before last season, a deal that looks like one of the NBA's biggest bargains. Millsap and Al Horford seemed to be establishing themselves as one of the league's top frontcourt pairings. After Horford was lost for the season, Millsap stepped up with a career year that earned him a spot on the All-Star team. Millsap probably should have been named to Team USA's roster for the FIBA World Cup as well. As the Hawks' primary frontcourt scorer for most of the season, Millsap posted career-bests in scoring (17.9), assists (3.1), and three-pointers (1.0) while contributing 8.5 boards and 1.1 blocks per game. The increased usage and perimeter shooting hurt his efficiency just a touch, as his field goal percentage dipped to a career low (but still solid) 46 percent. That said, Millsap's ability to step out and hit from the perimeter is one of the reasons he's able to share the floor with Horford. There is a downside to that pairing, though. Like Horford, Millsap is somewhat undersized for his position (6-7, 243) and actually lined up at small forward pretty regularly as a member of the Utah Jazz. The Millsap/Horford combo is one of the league's smallest, which could make the Hawks vulnerable against teams with size. Millsap will be a free agent after this season and will likely be one of the most sought-after free agents of next summer.
After having played his entire career with the Utah Jazz thus far, Millsap is taking his talents to the Atlanta Hawks in his eighth season. He had a rather sub-par season in his 2012-13 campaign, averaging just 14.6 points (49 percent from the field, 74 percent from the line), 7.1 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.0 block in 30 minutes per game. His points, percentages and rebound numbers were the lowest he'd posted over the past three years. Millsap's production may have been affected by the emergence of Derrick Favors, and perhaps as a member of the Hawks, he will be able to break out from his 30-minute ceiling as the main replacement for departed forward Josh Smith. Millsap is likely to start alongside Al Horford, who is arguably not as ball-dominant as his previous teammate Al Jefferson. Being on a team with an offense focused on fast breaks and offensive rebounds, Millsap could truly thrive as a dominant all-around fantasy contributor, given his ability to produce multiple statistics (such as three-pointers made, steals and blocks, among the typical points, rebounds and field goal percentage).
Millsap kept chugging along in 2011-12, averaging 16.6 points and a career-high 8.8 rebounds per game. The Jazz have never regretted their decision to match Millsap’s offer sheet when they let Carlos Boozer walk in the summer of 2010. Though somewhat undersized at 6-8, Millsap is a good rebounder and very strong. He can keep up with the league’s bigger fours on defense as well. He had a career-high 1.8 steals per games last season and averages 1.0 blocks per game for his career. Health has not been an issue. He hasn’t missed more than six games in any of his six NBA seasons. Entering his prime, Millsap should be a pretty safe fantasy pick, although the Jazz do have a logjam at power forward. Looking ahead to the upcoming season, Jazz coach Tyrone Corbin will attempt to balance the need to develop Derek Favors at power forward along with giving Millsap the minutes he deserves. With Millsap entering the final year of his contract, and a replacement ready at power forward, he seems like a candidate to be traded before he becomes an unrestricted free agent in next summer. The Jazz offered him a contract extension, but Millsap rejected it, preferring to test the free-agent waters. Whether he stays in Utah or is traded, Millsap should continue to be a productive power forward.
After being stuck on the bench behind Carlos Boozer for his first four seasons, Millsap was finally given the chance to start in 2010-11, and he didn’t disappoint. The former second-round pick out of Louisiana Tech easily posted a career-high with 17.3 points per game. Despite the increased usage, Millsap remained as efficient as ever, hitting 53.1 percent of his shots from the floor and 75.7 percent from the line while limiting his turnovers to 1.9 per game. He also provided strong play on the defensive end of the court with 1.4 steals and 0.9 blocks per game. The one area where Millsap came up a bit short was rebounding (7.6), which is surprising since that has always been considered his greatest strength. The 26-year-old is undersized (6-8, 250) for a power forward, but he uses his body well to create space and get easy buckets. With young big men Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors both vital parts of the Jazz’s rebuilding efforts, Millsap could eventually give way to a youth movement, but his expanded role should hold steady for at least one more season.
You have to feel for Paul Millsap. He was one of the league's biggest surprises filling in for Carlos Boozer, and was all set to take over Boozer's starting spot last season. But Boozer stayed put, sticking Millsap in a bench role. Boozer is gone now, which might mean Millsap will have his moment in the spotlight… except that the Jazz acquired Al Jefferson in the offseason. Even in a limited role, Millsap has the ability to put up numbers – he averaged 11.6 points, just under seven boards and two combined blocks/steals in 2009-10 – but that's nothing compared to the regular double-doubles he posted as a starter.
When Carlos Boozer missed 45 games with a knee injury last season, Millsap was one of the better players in the league. During 38 games as a starter, Millsap averaged 16.0 points, 10.3 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.0 blocks while shooting 54.5 percent from the field. To put that in perspective, only one other player in the NBA last season averaged double-digit rebounds and at least one steal and one block per game (Dwight Howard). Millsap clearly proved himself worthy of a starting job. However, Boozer somewhat surprisingly decided not to opt out of his contract during the offseason, so he remains the Jazz’s property. At press time, a trade does not appear to be imminent, and if Boozer somehow remains in Utah all season, Millsap will once again be relegated to the bench, where his numbers dropped to 11.1 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and 0.8 steals over 38 games last season – still serviceable, but not even close his production when in the starting five.
Millsap belongs with guys like David Lee and Jamario Moon in the “per-minute” hall of fame. The statistics show that he’s a highly-capable producer when given the opportunity – unfortunately, they can’t do anything about the fact that he’s fighting with Mehmet Okur, Carlos Boozer, Andrei Kirilenko and now Kosta Koufos for playing time. He’s worth a look in most drafts because of his “garbage man” skill at racking up numbers in harder-to-get categories, but he probably won’t meet his considerable fantasy potential unless one of Utah’s other frontcourt players is injured.
Millsap was one of the more impressive rookies in the NBA last season, getting solid minutes and producing the occasional fantasy-worthy line on a Jazz team with playoff aspirations. Unfortunately, he plays the same position as Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur, which means that he does not often get enough court time to make a fantasy impact. Millsap is a strong rebounder that blocks a surprising amount of shots considering that he’s a 6-7-post player. He is worth a flyer late in most drafts because he’s only a Boozer injury away from putting up David Lee-type numbers. Boozer has missed almost 90 games over the past three seasons so Millsap getting the call isn’t exactly an unlikely scenario.
More Fantasy News
Well-rounded line in loss
FDenver Nuggets
May 10, 2019
Millsap managed 17 points (4-15 FG, 1-3 3Pt, 8-8 FT), six rebounds, one assist, three steals and one block across 39 minutes during the Nuggets' 119-108 loss to the Trail Blazers in Game 6 of their Western Conference semifinal-round playoff series Thursday.
ANALYSIS
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Rock-solid effort in win
FDenver Nuggets
May 8, 2019
Millsap registered 24 points (9-17 FG, 2-3 3Pt, 4-6 FT), eight rebounds, two assists, two blocks and one steal across 34 minutes during the Nuggets' 124-98 win over the Trail Blazers in Game 5 of their Western Conference semifinal-round playoff series Tuesday.
ANALYSIS
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Double-doubles in OT loss
FDenver Nuggets
May 4, 2019
Millsap registered 17 points (8-13 FG, 1-2 3Pt, 0-2 FT), 13 rebounds, one assist, three steals and two blocks across 49 minutes during the Nuggets' 140-137 quadruple-overtime loss to the Trail Blazers in Game 3 of their Western Conference semifinal-round series Friday.
ANALYSIS
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Continues to provide value in loss
FDenver Nuggets
May 2, 2019
Millsap tallied 14 points (6-14 FG, 1-3 3Pt, 1-1 FT), 11 rebounds, two steals, and two blocks in 32 minutes during Wednesday's 97-90 loss to Portland.
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Impactful performance Monday
FDenver Nuggets
April 29, 2019
Millsap had 19 points (7-12 FG, 0-2 3Pt, 5-7 FT), six rebounds, three assists, and one block in 28 minutes during Monday's 121-113 victory over Portland.
ANALYSIS
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