Andrei Kirilenko

After one very productive season with Minnesota, Kirilenko was on the move again, this time joining fellow Russian, Mikhail Prokhorov's Brooklyn Nets. Conspiracy theories abound as to why Kirilenko signed with Brooklyn for below market value, but he definitely didn't join the loaded Nets in search of big minutes. He joins a team that already has Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett starting at the two forward spots, and also has a more than capable backup in Andray Blatche. It's quite possible Kirilenko will be part of Brooklyn's crunch time unit, since his defense and hustle plays make him unique to the Nets at the three. Last season's 12.4 points, 5.7 rebounds and 1.5 steals per game - all six-year highs - will almost certainly decline. However, with such a talented roster around him, he could possibly improve on his 51 percent shooting from last season, considering he will often be the third, fourth or even fifth offensive option on the floor. Kirilenko has a similar vibe as Shawn Marion, in that most fantasy owners have already owned each player at least once, and there's nothing exciting about going down that road again. But AK47 has averaged 1.2-plus steals and 1.0-plus blocks in each of the last five seasons, which is a unique characteristic for someone who will get drafted as late as he does. However, also like Marion, don't expect 70 games out of Kirilenko, who hasn't played between 58 and 67 games in each of his last four NBA seasons.

After a 10-year run with the Utah Jazz and a one-year stop to play with CSKA Moscow last season, Kirilenko will make his new home as the starting small forward of the Minnesota Timberwolves. No longer the fantasy darling he once was five years ago, Kirilenko has still been extremely consistent over the past four years. The 11.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.2 blocks he averaged in 2010-11 are almost identical to his numbers in the three previous seasons, so it�s fairly safe to expect more of the same from the 31-year-old Russian. AK-47 will share time at the three with Chase Budinger, but there shouldn�t be much of a playing time issue, considering how thin the T-Wolves are at the two. Kirilenko missed just two games in 2010-11 after missing at least 15 games in each of the two previous seasons, so hopefully he can remain on the court. Ricky Rubio (ACL) could return by December, and few players provide better looks for their teammates than Rubio, so Kirilenko should see plenty of easy looks courtesy of the Spanish point guard. If you are looking for late-round help at the three, with production in the defensive categories, Kirilenko could be the guy to target on draft day.

While studies regarding the peak years of NBA players are inconclusive, it stands to reason, owing to the sort of explosive athleticism that the game generally requires (for anyone not named Shaq), that it's probably a little bit lower than for baseball. In baseball, those peak years are, generally speaking, ages 27-30. For basketball, then, we might say something like 25-27. If we use Andrei Kirilenko as a guide, however, we'd probably have to go even younger. Consider Kirilenko's block averages per 36 minutes over his career, starting from his age-20 season in 2001-02, as follows: 2.7, 2.8, 2.7, 3.6, 3.0, 2.5, 1.8, 1.5, 1.5. That's basically as normal a distribution as one could ask for. And the startling thing here is that Kirilenko's high point came in his age-23 season. Obviously, block totals don't correlate perfectly with athleticism, but when coupled with Kirilenko's injuries the last few years (72, 67, and 58 games played, respectively, over the last three seasons), he's likely classifiable as a talented player on the decline.

A few years ago, Kirilenko was a unique roto producer that contributed to every category and would have been worthy of a first round pick if not for consistent durability issues. His main claim to fame used to be his defense – he used his long, 6-9 frame to contribute almost five combined steals/blocks per game every season. But three seasons ago he moved to small forward full-time and seemed to lose half-a-step of foot-speed, a combination that pulled him away from the rim (fewer blocks) and forced him to concentrate on guarding the more athletic wings instead of playing the passing lanes (fewer steals). Kirilenko’s combined 2.3 steals/blocks last season represented a career-low and marked the fourth year in a row his total declined. He scored a bit more last season with 11.6 ppg, but his field goal percentage (44.9) and assists (2.6 apg) both represented five-year lows. Kirilenko also lost his starting job last year, playing an eight-year low of 27.3 minutes per game. Kirilenko is still more effective as a power forward than a small forward, but with Carlos Boozer and now Paul Millsap manning that position it is unlikely that Kirilenko sees many minutes there. As such, Kirilenko’s numbers are likely to remain pedestrian, and he is no longer worthy of fantasy consideration before the mid-to-late rounds.

The emergence of Carlos Boozer as a force on the low block all but killed Andrei Kirilenko as a fantasy superstar. Before Boozer, Kirilenko was used primarily at power forward – which put him closer to the basket on defense, able to use his Boeing-esque wingspan to snatch steals from the passing lanes or block shots as a help defender. Deployed as a three, Kirilenko is giving up a half-step of quickness in just about every matchup, and out on the perimeter, he’s not in position for nearly as many steals or blocks. That knocks him down from top 10. status to the middle of the road.

In gaining an All Star power forward in the resurgent Carlos Boozer, it appears that the Jazz have pushed another All Star to the wayside. Kirilenko became a fantasy darling on the strength of his ability to fill every column on the stat sheet. (And due to stories of his remarkably… liberal… wife. But that’s another story.) What wasn’t clear until last year was that Kirilenko generates a good deal of his numbers when he plays closer to the basket. Playing down low, he can use his albatross wingspan to swat shots from the weak side, grab boards and play passing lanes for steals. With Boozer entrenched at the four and Kirilenko forced to the perimeter guarding threes, most of those advantages are lost. AK-47 becomes a slow-ish small forward with a suspect jump shot. In the space of one season, he’s gone from top-ten pick to “guy hoping not to lose PT to Paul Millsap.” He’s worth a selection in a middle round as a fantasy garbage man and in the hopes that the Jazz will swing a trade and send Kirilenko someplace where his unique skills will be better utilized.

Kirilenko is the rare player who, at a lanky 6-9, can single handedly carry your fantasy team in blocks while still contributing in other categories. Last year, he averaged 15.3 pts, 8.0 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.5 steals and a mind boggling 3.2 blocks per game. He finished 2nd in the league in blocks per game behind Nuggets center Marcus Camby. The issue with Kirilenko is the status of his back. We’ve seen what back spasms can do to a player (see Tracy McGrady), and Kirilenko missed 13 games last year with spasms after only playing in 41 games in 2005. That said, 60-65 games of AK47 at his best is better than most players who play all 82. If Kirilenko can stay healthy, he can be the key to a fantasy championship.

Kirilenko has gone from being so far underrated he was overrated in 2004-05, to being a potential steal in drafts this year. If AK-47 is sitting there toward the end of the first round, you've got to grab him. Kirilenko's not going to be a huge scorer -- 17 a game would be an aggressive forecast -- but the huge numbers in blocks and steals are what make him so valuable. He should also bounce back to his usual eight or nine rebounds per game this year. Kirilenko has spent the summer bulking up to protect himself from injury, and that should pay off for him in 2005-06. Expect Kirilenko to be in the running for Defensive Player of the Year.

Kirilenko is almost in a class by himself when it comes to all-around fantasy stats, joining Kevin Garnett as the two most versatile players in fantasy basketball. AK-47 makes a contribution in every single fantasy category, but his strengths clearly lie in his defensive prowess and his superb percentages. Kirilenko will give you about two steals and close to three blocks per game, while shooting nearly 50 percent from the field and 90 percent from the line. In addition, Kirilenko vastly improved his outside shooting at the end of last season, even upping his three-point totals and figures to average about one three a game as well. Kirilenko’s rebound totals might take a hit with board magnet Carlos Boozer in town, but he should snag 7-8 rebounds per game. After Kevin Garnett, you might not find a better option than this Jazz fantasy stud. Kirilenko is a no-brainer top-5 pick and should probably be the third overall pick in this year’s draft.

Kirilenko is a hard worker, who can do a little bit of everything on the court. He can post up, play the perimeter and shoot (49.1 percent last season). Kirilenko had good peripherals, averaging 2.2 blocks and 1.5 steals, and improved in every fantasy category from his rookie season. He plays the same position as Matt Harpring, and is usually the first man off the bench, but has the talent to play a few positions on the court. He has value even as a bench player, but that value will increase if the Jazz find him a starting job.