Duncan Robinson

Duncan Robinson

30-Year-Old ForwardF
Miami Heat  NBA  
Miami Heat
2023 Fantasy Outlook
Robinson's decline continued last season, logging just 16.4 minutes per game, playing in only 42 games. He basically fell out of the rotation at times, although he was able to land a meaningful role throughout the playoffs, largely due to the fact that Tyler Herro was injured. Robinson put up 6.4 points per game during the 2022-23 season, adding very little else outside of his 1.5 triples. While the Heat have parted ways with Gabe Vincent and Max Strus, Robinson will now have to contend with Josh Richardson and Jaime Jaquez. Even in starters' minutes, Robinson's overall upside is so limited that fantasy value is hard to find. He is unlikely to play more than about 20 minutes, leaving him as nothing more than a situational streaming candidate should the schedule afford him a favorable week. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Current Season
From Preseason
#158
ADP
$Signed a four-year, $70.02 million contract with the Heat in August of 2021. Contract includes $19.89 million early termination option for 2025-26.
Personal Bio/PreCareer Summary

Duncan McBryde Robinson was born on April 22, 1994 in York, ME. The son of Jeffrey and Elisabeth Robinson, he attended The Governor's Academy in Newbury, MA before spending a post-graduate year at Phillips Exeter Academy in Exeter, New Hampshire. He began his collegiate career at Division III Williams College before moving on to the University of Michigan. When Robinson made his NBA debut in 2018, he became the first former Division III player to appear in an NBA game since Devean George in 1999. Follow Robinson on Instagram @d_bo20. Robinson began his collegiate career at Division III powerhouse Williams. He became the first freshman starter in coach Mike Maker's six-year tenure and averaged 17.1 points and 6.5 rebounds. The 6-foot-8 forward hit 45.3 percent of his three-pointers. After the season, Maker left for Marist and Robinson opened up his recruitment, eventually ending up at Michigan. He redshirted for the 2014-15 season. The forward started 27 games in his first season as a Wolverine and took on a bigger than expected offensive role when Caris LeVert was injured. He averaged 11.2 points and connected on 45.0 percent of his three-pointers. Robinson helped Michigan into the second round of the NCAA Tournament with 13 points and 11 rebounds in the win over Tulsa. The forward only started three games as a junior and put up 7.7 points in 20.1 minutes. In his last season with the Wolverines, Robinson became an important player for a team that reached the National Championship game. He started 19 games, mostly in the first half of the season, and averaged 9.2 points. Robinson hit 237 three-pointers in his three years in Ann Arbor to place fourth on the school's all-time list.

Fails to score in three minutes
FMiami Heat
April 29, 2024
Robinson finished Monday's 102-88 loss to Boston in Game 4 of the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs with zero points (0-1 FG, 0-1 3Pt) and one assist over three minutes.
ANALYSIS
Robinson hit rock bottom in the loss, failing to score in only three minutes of playing time. It's a far cry from what he did during the regular season and highlights how unimpactful he can be. The Heat will now head back to Boston where they will attempt to extend the series beyond five games.
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Stat Review
How does Duncan Robinson compare to other players?
This section compares his stats with all players from the previous three seasons (minimum 200 minutes played)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
  • True Shooting %
    An advanced statistic that measures a player's efficiency at shooting the ball that takes field goal percentage, free throw percentage, and three point percentage into account.
  • Effective Field Goal %
    A statistic that adjusts field goal percentage to account for the fact that three-point field goals count for three points while field goals only count for two points.
  • 3-Point Attempt Rate
    Percentage of field goal attempts from three point range.
  • Free Throw Rate
    Number of free throw attempts per field goal attempt.
  • Offensive Rebound %
    An estimate of the percentage of available offensive rebounds a player grabbed while they were on the floor.
  • Defensive Rebound %
    An estimate of the percentage of available defensive rebounds a player grabbed while they were on the floor.
  • Total Rebound %
    An estimate of the percentage of available rebounds a player grabbed while they were on the floor.
  • Assist %
    An estimate of the percentage of teammate field goals a player assisted while they were on the floor.
  • Steal %
    An estimate of the percentage of opponent possessions that end with a steal by the player while they were on the floor.
  • Block %
    An estimate of the percentage of opponent two-point field goal attempts blocked by the player while they were on the floor.
  • Turnover %
    An estimate of turnovers committed per 100 plays.
  • Usage %
    An estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while they were on the floor.
  • Fantasy Points Per Game
    NBA Fantasy Points Per Game.
  • Fantasy Points Per Minute
    NBA Fantasy Points Per Minute.
True Shooting %
61.2%
 
Effective Field Goal %
58.9%
 
3-Point Attempt Rate
70.1%
 
Free Throw Rate
13.3%
 
Offensive Rebound %
0.9%
 
Defensive Rebound %
9.5%
 
Total Rebound %
5.1%
 
Assist %
15.2%
 
Steal %
1.1%
 
Block %
0.8%
 
Turnover %
9.5%
 
Usage %
19.0%
 
Fantasy Points Per Game
21.5
 
Fantasy Points Per Minute
0.8
 
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Our historical fantasy ratings are standard scores calculated using 8-Category settings with 12 teams and 13 players per team.
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Heat Rotation: Minutes Breakdown
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Average Fantasy Points
Average Fantasy Points are determined when Duncan Robinson was active vs. non-active during the season. Click here to view average fantasy points for a different time period.
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Duncan Robinson See More
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Surprise Team USA affiliation
FMiami Heat
January 24, 2024
Robinson is included in Team USA's 41 roster finalists for the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris, Shams Charania of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
Robinson has yet to make an international basketball debut, although it seems that Team USA could be fond of having an off-ball, three-point specialist on the roster. Building a connective and chemistry-enabling squad is likely a priority for Olympic play, so considering a blend of stars and role players is logical.
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2022
2021
2020
2019
The Heat signed Robinson to a four-year, $70 million guaranteed contract last summer, but the sharpshooter endured a post-contract-signing slump. His overall efficiency declined for a second straight year, and his 37.2 percent mark from three was only the sixth best on the team of players who took at least 100 shots from distance. While that's still a strong mark, it's a far cry from his 2019-20 season where he converted 44.6 percent of his 8.3 threes per game. As a result, the Heat comfortably played Duncan fewer minutes than in his previous two seasons. He sunk to 25.9 minutes per game last season and averaged 10.9 points, 2.6 rebounds and 1.6 assists, resulting in a per-game fantasy rank of 226. Max Strus, Gabe Vincent and Caleb Martin received opportunities to steal minutes away from Robinson, and the three succeeded in their own ways. Given the sheer amount of money committed to Robinson and a relatively stagnant roster, the Heat should grant the wing plenty of chances to find his three-point shot, since it's practically his only use on the court. He's displayed touches of playmaking ability, but those moments are usually within the flow of the offense, and 93 percent of his shots remained assisted by a teammate. Fantasy managers in standard leagues can probably avoid Robinson unless in desperate need of three-pointers, as Robinson sports minimal upside and is better suited for the bench in deeper formats.
Practically overnight, Robinson became one of the league's best three-point shooters in 2019-20. He followed up that breakout campaign with another great effort in 2020-21. In his third season, the wing averaged 13.1 points while hitting 3.5 threes per game at 40.8 percent. He also contributed 3.5 rebounds and 1.8 assists in 31.4 minutes. Only two players have hit more threes than Robinson over the past two seasons (520) -- Damian Lillard (545) and Buddy Hield (553) -- but Robinson has the best percentage (42.7) of the trio. Despite Robinson doing little else on the court (though he's becoming an improved playmaker), he was able to rank 137th in per-game production last season. The Heat rewarded his production with a five-year, $90 million deal during the 2021 offseason -- the largest contract in NBA history for an undrafted player. Heading into 2021-22, nothing should change for the 27-year-old out of Michigan. He took 85 percent of his shots from beyond the arc last season, and that's where he'll continue to do his damage. There's room for him to make strides as a pick-and-roll ballhandler given his immense gravity as a shooter, but the Heat have plenty of other options who are more suited for that. Ultimately, Robinson is an extremely safe bet for fantasy managers in standard leagues with a final pick.
Robinson went undrafted out of Michigan in 2018. Two years later, he was a regular starter on a team that made the NBA Finals. The 6-foot-7 wing earned his opportunities through one standout skill: his excellent three-point shooting. He scored 13.5 points per game while shooting 44.6 percent from beyond the arc, good for fourth-best among qualified players. On a per-36-minute basis, his 10.1 attempts from beyond the arc ranked fourth among qualifiers, while no qualified player attempted fewer than his 1.3 two-pointers. His sweet shooting stroke also showed up at the free-throw line, where he sunk shots at a 93.1 percent clip, though his style of play meant he attempted just 72 free throws all season. As you might expect for a player of his profile, he offered very little beyond scoring, adding just 1.4 assists, 3.2 rebounds and 0.5 steals per game. Still, quite a number of players have carved out very long careers based on little more than knockdown shooting from three. We've only seen one year from Robinson at that level, and his shooting could certainly regress, but he hardly could have established his reputation any better in his first full campaign.
Despite a solid college career at Michigan, one where he displayed a penchant for clutch long-distance shooting, Robinson nevertheless went undrafted in June 2018 and first found his way into the professional ranks via a Summer League contract with the Heat. He parlayed that opportunity into a two-way pact for the 2018-19 season by averaging 12.1 points (on 51.8 percent shooting, including 55.3 percent from three-point range), 2.6 rebounds and 1.4 assists across 25.6 minutes over seven games between the California Classic and Las Vegas tournaments. Robinson then continued to light it up in the G League with Sioux Falls, putting up 21.4 points (51.4 percent shooting, including 48.3 percent from three-point range), 4.3 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.0 steal across 36.9 minutes over 33 games. He only saw 10.7 minutes per contest across 15 games at the NBA level during his rookie season, but his development continued over seven more games this past summer (16.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.0 SPG across 29.5 minutes). That was apparently enough to convince Miami that Robinson was worthy of another extended look this coming season, as his 2019-20 contract became fully guaranteed in mid-July. At 6-foot-8, Robinson is capable of filling either wing spot, which could certainly help his chances for playing time down the line. For the time being, it appears he's set for another extended G League stay during the forthcoming campaign; however, a stellar showing in training camp and preseason could potentially speed up his career progress, especially if Robinson can show promise as a viable source of second-unit scoring for a team that lost Dwyane Wade to retirement.
More Fantasy News
Cleared for Game 1
FMiami Heat
April 21, 2024
Robinson (back) is available for Sunday's Game 1 versus Boston, Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports.
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Questionable for Game 1
FMiami Heat
Back
April 20, 2024
Robinson is considered questionable for Sunday's Game 1 against the Celtics due to a back injury, Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports.
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Makes return in Play-In game
FMiami Heat
April 20, 2024
Robinson (back) recorded eight points (3-6 FG, 2-4 3Pt), three rebounds and one assist across 12 minutes Friday in the Heat's 112-91 win over the Bulls in the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament.
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Officially available for Friday
FMiami Heat
April 19, 2024
Robinson (back) is available for Friday's Play-In Game against Chicago, Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports.
ANALYSIS
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Probable for Friday
FMiami Heat
Back
April 18, 2024
Robinson (back) is probable for Friday's Play-In Game against the Bulls, Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports.
ANALYSIS
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